Tropical Depression 4-E=Last Advisory Written

[cycloneye]

688
WHXX01 KMIA 061849
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC FRI JUL 6 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942007) 20070706 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070706 1800 070707 0600 070707 1800 070708 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.2N 104.4W 10.0N 106.5W 10.8N 108.5W 11.6N 110.5W
BAMD 9.2N 104.4W 9.4N 107.1W 9.7N 109.5W 10.0N 111.7W
BAMM 9.2N 104.4W 9.8N 106.5W 10.6N 108.7W 11.5N 110.8W
LBAR 9.2N 104.4W 9.9N 107.0W 10.9N 110.0W 12.4N 112.9W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070708 1800 070709 1800 070710 1800 070711 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 112.4W 13.8N 116.0W 15.2N 119.6W 16.5N 123.4W
BAMD 10.4N 113.7W 11.0N 116.7W 10.8N 119.1W 10.9N 121.7W
BAMM 12.5N 112.9W 14.1N 116.1W 15.2N 119.0W 16.4N 122.5W
LBAR 13.7N 115.5W 16.5N 119.7W 17.9N 122.7W 18.5N 125.5W
SHIP 50KTS 54KTS 48KTS 40KTS
DSHP 50KTS 54KTS 48KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.2N LONCUR = 104.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 9.2N LONM12 = 102.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 9.1N LONM24 = 100.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Finnally action in the EPAC.I am making this thread for 94E but there is another invest 95E that has popped up too so anyone can make a thread for it.

[Aquawind]

Oh EPAC you say...about time..

[cycloneye]

Coincidence or not,the favorable MJO is invading the EPAC now,and there are two invests.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 062232
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT FRI JUL 6 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.


AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY-ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

[cycloneye]

If I was betting,I would choose 94E to develop than 95E as it has a better enviroment.

Hey folks,I dont want to be the only one to post in this thread.Come and discuss about this slowly developing system.

[Chacor]

Finally some EPac action.

[Andrew92]

This invest does need to get a little better organized if it wants to develop. However, it is further south than Alvin, Barbara, and TD 3-E all were. I'll go out on a limb and say we eventually get Cosme out of this. I withhold any intensity statements beyond that for now, though.

P.S. On a side note, is Cosme is a Spanish name? Just curious, as it sounds like it to me.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

This invest does need to get a little better organized if it wants to develop. However, it is further south than Alvin, Barbara, and TD 3-E all were. I'll go out on a limb and say we eventually get Cosme out of this. I withhold any intensity statements beyond that for now, though.

P.S. On a side note, is Cosme is a Spanish name? Just curious, as it sounds like it to me.

-Andrew92

Yes it's a spanish name.

[AnnularCane]

This invest does need to get a little better organized if it wants to develop. However, it is further south than Alvin, Barbara, and TD 3-E all were. I'll go out on a limb and say we eventually get Cosme out of this. I withhold any intensity statements beyond that for now, though.

P.S. On a side note, is Cosme is a Spanish name? Just curious, as it sounds like it to me.

-Andrew92

I think it's French, actually. Although another source says it's Greek.

[NDG]

This invest does need to get a little better organized if it wants to develop. However, it is further south than Alvin, Barbara, and TD 3-E all were. I'll go out on a limb and say we eventually get Cosme out of this. I withhold any intensity statements beyond that for now, though.

P.S. On a side note, is Cosme is a Spanish name? Just curious, as it sounds like it to me.

-Andrew92

I think it's French, actually. Although another source says it's Greek.

Let's say its Latin, since you find it from Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece.

Anyway, yes, I agree with Luis, 94E has a better chance of further development than 95E, 95E is just too far south, moving into less favorable environment.

[HurricaneRobert]

I can't tell if there's anything darker there. I guess there's a new invest to the east that might pop up in a few days?

[Chacor]

That might still be 94E I suppose, with the one near 122W being 95E?

[Cyclenall]

I'm surprised some people think this has a better chance then 95E does because I was thinking the opposite. It appears way less organized then 94E. The conditions aren't too bad for either one but the organization is a gap. Both look to be within the ITCZ somewhat.

I notice some weak rotation with 94E and not really with 95E.

[NDG]

I'm surprised some people think this has a better chance then 95E does because I was thinking the opposite. It appears way less organized then 94E. The conditions aren't too bad for either one but the organization is a gap. Both look to be within the ITCZ somewhat.

I notice some weak rotation with 94E and not really with 95E.

Yes, I still think 94E has a better chance, but I'm confused, I have not follow this invest since it origing, NRL and NHC have it at the 105th W Long., but there's nothing there, vorticity is closer to the 112th W long.
95E is going to be running into more stable env. & cooler warters real soon and kind of far away from the UL ridge.

[CrazyC83]

This thing might become TD4-E. It has a much better chance than 95L (which is going nowhere).

[JonathanBelles]

oOo new subtopics!!!

[cycloneye]

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

The latest Tropical Weather Outlook for 94E.It looks like TD 4-E is on the corner.

[cycloneye]

Looking very good.

[Cyclenall]

The conditions in the long run look better for 94E then 95E but 95E looked more organized at the time. I think 95E will have a hard time breaking free from the ITCZ anyways. I still see weak rotation with 94E which is good. The only thing I have with 94E is the convection is not in one large blob and instead is in pieces. Hopefully it was consolidate soon.

I seems the NRL images that track these invests are not even centered on the systems themselves today. For example, 95E looks like nothing (no clouds) on the NRL but it's just off.

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

The backup site of NRL has them updated.I think that the main site of NRL is having problems.