Tropical Depression 4-E=Last Advisory Written

[Patrick99]

I understand the Atlantic's lack of activity...it is only July, but the EPAC....shouldn't we have had some half-decent action out there by now?

[Chacor]

We're still ahead of last year, TD03E (Bud) formed only on July 11 UTC.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 091836
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC MON JUL 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942007) 20070709 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070709 1800 070710 0600 070710 1800 070711 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 118.7W 17.5N 120.6W 18.2N 122.3W 19.0N 123.9W
BAMD 16.6N 118.7W 17.4N 120.0W 17.9N 121.3W 18.4N 122.5W
BAMM 16.6N 118.7W 17.5N 120.3W 18.0N 121.9W 18.5N 123.7W
LBAR 16.6N 118.7W 17.4N 119.9W 18.1N 121.5W 19.0N 123.3W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 31KTS 25KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 31KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070711 1800 070712 1800 070713 1800 070714 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.0N 125.5W 21.9N 128.0W 24.1N 130.1W 25.7N 132.3W
BAMD 18.9N 123.8W 20.0N 125.8W 21.6N 127.3W 23.1N 129.3W
BAMM 19.1N 125.6W 20.9N 128.5W 23.4N 130.5W 25.5N 132.6W
LBAR 20.3N 125.1W 24.1N 127.9W 31.9N 129.3W 40.9N 124.9W
SHIP 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 118.7W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 117.5W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 116.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


The winds haved been increased to 30kts.Will they classify it to TD later this afternoon?

[AnnularCane]

94E looks beautiful today. I'm afraid he won't last very long though. He might be too close to cooler waters.

[Coredesat]

Thread needs renaming, this is now Tropical Depression 04E.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 092028
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042007
200 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2007

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE CENTER SINCE ABOUT 09Z
THIS MORNING. ON THIS BASIS...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7...WITH THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY PASSING
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES
FROM THIS MORNING SHOWING A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MID-LEVEL TURNING. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH STORM STRENGTH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 16.8N 119.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 17.4N 120.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 17.8N 121.2W 25 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 18.4N 122.6W 25 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 19.0N 124.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 12/1800Z 20.0N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


TD-4-E is born.But for a short time.

[cycloneye]

Thread needs renaming, this is now Tropical Depression 04E.

Title is changed.

[MiamiensisWx]

It appears that this system may be short-lived. The low-level circulation is partially exposed, and there is some upper-level shear. Although the center may consolidate beneath the convection, some questions remain with regards to developmental chances. The biggest negative factor is the stable marine stratocumulus layer to the north of the depression. Look at this loop. The mid-level ridging may steer the circulation to the west, especially because of the possible shallow structure. Water vapor indicates the presence of an unfavorable upper-level environment, so I would not expect significant development.

[southerngale]

Thread needs renaming, this is now Tropical Depression 04E.

Feel free to start a new thread when something becomes a TD, TS, etc. For those who aren't here all the time following the tropics but pop in to get some info, they'll see the title, click on the thread, and have to read until page 3 to get current info about the new TD.

For current info, it's just more logical for everyone involved. I know you're just suggesting what has been done in the past. My goal is to change that as I believe it makes it more convenient for the majority.

[cycloneye]

Good idea from my fellow Moderator southerngale. Let's make that change that my fellow moderator is saying about not staying with one thread for any system,Invest,one thread,TD new thread,Tropical Storm,new thread and hurricane new thread.If this TD is classified as a Tropical Storm,a new thread will be made.

[JonathanBelles]

I dont like the idea of creating a new thread everytime a system is up- or down-graded. What if a storm hovers around 75 mph going from 70 to 75 mph 2 or 3 times, is that 2 or 3 threads??? When I go back through threads looking for information, I dont wanna go through 2+ threads. JMO

[southerngale]

I dont like the idea of creating a new thread everytime a system is up- or down-graded. What if a storm hovers around 75 mph going from 70 to 75 mph 2 or 3 times, is that 2 or 3 threads??? When I go back through threads looking for information, I dont wanna go through 2+ threads. JMO

How often does a system hover back and forth from 70 to 75mph within a matter of a few hours and the NHC goes back and forth from hurricane to TS several times? We already end up with many threads on one system anyway. Think about it fact, think about when s2k has hundreds of people on at one time... it's more about members and visitors getting the most current information as quickly as possible when they come here, not about the convenience of going back to fewer threads.

[Coredesat]

Point taken, I wasn't entirely sure what we were doing given that these are smaller subforums.

[Cyclenall]

It's not a good idea to have a new thread each time the tropical cyclone is upgraded to a new level (TD, TS, Hurricane) because that is extremely annoying for archiving and quoting other posts to a new thread. It's just as bad as the 25 page limit rule. I like how you can view the tropical cyclone's history all in one thread and when it becomes another "level" higher, you just rename the title. Nothing bad about that.

Think about it fact, think about when s2k has hundreds of people on at one time... it's more about members and visitors getting the most current information as quickly as possible when they come here, not about the convenience of going back to fewer threads.

How does creating more threads help that? It would just make things more confusing if anything. Changing the title is the same, only more convenient.

When I go back through threads looking for information, I dont wanna go through 2+ threads. JMO

Exactly, just think when you want to search for a old TC from the forums how much harder it will be to get the information. Instead of it all being in one big thread, you have to go through many .

As for TD4-E, another weak system with no future . As I said before, systems that stay depressions and not get named annoy me.

[Andrew92]

I dont like the idea of creating a new thread everytime a system is up- or down-graded. What if a storm hovers around 75 mph going from 70 to 75 mph 2 or 3 times, is that 2 or 3 threads??? When I go back through threads looking for information, I dont wanna go through 2+ threads. JMO

How often does a system hover back and forth from 70 to 75mph within a matter of a few hours and the NHC goes back and forth from hurricane to TS several times? We already end up with many threads on one system anyway. Think about it fact, think about when s2k has hundreds of people on at one time... it's more about members and visitors getting the most current information as quickly as possible when they come here, not about the convenience of going back to fewer threads.

I do think the idea is a good one, and it is uncommon that a storm will hover back and forth between 70 and 75 mph. However, I am reminded of Ophelia from a couple years ago when I read this post. Ophelia was one who couldn't make her mind up on anything, her path and her intensity. That would have caused some major chaos.

Anyway, back to the topic. Not much chance of TD 4-E becoming Cosme now, but I still think it is remotely possible before hitting the cool waters. But let's just say when I went out on a limb and guessed it might become Cosme that there was a reason why I held back on any intensity guesses until/unless/if it developed! I thought it was more organized than it really was and it took too much time to develop. No more than 40 mph out of this thing, and even that is probably pushing it.

-Andrew92

[southerngale]

Ok, let me try this again. It's not about archiving. It's not so much about the people who are here all the time, following the current threads no matter what because they will know what's going on. It's more about the HUNDREDS of people who are on and off throughout the day when there's something brewing out there... it's about getting the most current information to them (all of us) in the quickest way.

You already can't view all of a TC's history in one thread. There are usually many threads about one system. Besides, shorter threads are more user-friendly to the average viewer, but that's harder to understand for those who spend more time here. I'll read them regardless, but as a staff member, I'm trying to think of what's best for the majority. And when there's a threatening system out there, the majority of people on here are not regulars, and they're here to get current information fast. I hear it every year from those people.

Honestly, you actually think that the inconvienence of you clicking on a few more threads in your search while looking at old TC's is more important than people finding current information on a threatening system in a more timely manner? I'm sorry, but that just kinda blows my mind... no pun intended.

Most people DON'T read every post and when they see a thread about TD 4 or whatever it is, and they click that thread, they expect information about TD 4 because that's what the title says. It's very annoying (and just wrong, IMO) to have them read 3 or 15 or 20 pages just to get to the actual TD information.

[Andrew92]

Ok, let me try this again. It's not about archiving. It's not so much about the people who are here all the time, following the current threads no matter what because they will know what's going on. It's more about the HUNDREDS of people who are on and off throughout the day when there's something brewing out there... it's about getting the most current information to them (all of us) in the quickest way.

You already can't view all of a TC's history in one thread. There are usually many threads about one system. Besides, shorter threads are more user-friendly to the average viewer, but that's harder to understand for those who spend more time here. I'll read them regardless, but as a staff member, I'm trying to think of what's best for the majority. And when there's a threatening system out there, the majority of people on here are not regulars, and they're here to get current information fast. I hear it every year from those people.

Honestly, you actually think that the inconvienence of you clicking on a few more threads in your search while looking at old TC's is more important than people finding current information on a threatening system in a more timely manner? I'm sorry, but that just kinda blows my mind... no pun intended.

Most people DON'T read every post and when they see a thread about TD 4 or whatever it is, and they click that thread, they expect information about TD 4 because that's what the title says. It's very annoying (and just wrong, IMO) to have them read 3 or 15 or 20 pages just to get to the actual TD information.

OK, I understand now where you're coming from Southerngale. Thanks for the explanation.

Anyways, back to TD 4-E now that this is settled?

-Andrew92

[Cyclenall]

Most people DON'T read every post and when they see a thread about TD 4 or whatever it is, and they click that thread, they expect information about TD 4 because that's what the title says. It's very annoying (and just wrong, IMO) to have them read 3 or 15 or 20 pages just to get to the actual TD information.

Wouldn't the person just go to the last page?

Anyways, back to TD 4-E now that this is settled?

There doesn't seem to be as many posts on the systems now that we have sub forums. I can notice it's mostly the members who are hardcore for other cyclones . I was right to downgrade the % chance of TD4-E becoming a TS since the NHC forecast doesn't even call for one. The slower it formed, the lower the max strength would be.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 100058
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0058 UTC TUE JUL 10 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (EP042007) 20070710 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070710 0000 070710 1200 070711 0000 070711 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 119.1W 18.6N 120.8W 19.6N 122.3W 20.7N 123.6W
BAMD 17.5N 119.1W 18.3N 120.4W 19.0N 121.7W 19.6N 122.9W
BAMM 17.5N 119.1W 18.3N 120.7W 19.0N 122.4W 19.6N 124.1W
LBAR 17.5N 119.1W 18.1N 120.3W 19.1N 122.0W 20.1N 123.6W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 32KTS 26KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 32KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070712 0000 070713 0000 070714 0000 070715 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.9N 124.6W 24.4N 126.4W 26.7N 128.0W 28.6N 129.3W
BAMD 20.3N 124.0W 22.2N 125.2W 24.5N 126.4W 26.6N 127.7W
BAMM 20.6N 125.7W 23.1N 127.8W 26.2N 129.2W 29.6N 129.9W
LBAR 21.8N 125.2W 26.5N 127.2W 35.9N 127.4W 41.9N 126.3W
SHIP 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 119.1W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 118.1W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 116.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

No Cosme according to the 00:00z models.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 100058
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0058 UTC TUE JUL 10 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (EP042007) 20070710 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070710 0000 070710 1200 070711 0000 070711 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 119.1W 18.6N 120.8W 19.6N 122.3W 20.7N 123.6W
BAMD 17.5N 119.1W 18.3N 120.4W 19.0N 121.7W 19.6N 122.9W
BAMM 17.5N 119.1W 18.3N 120.7W 19.0N 122.4W 19.6N 124.1W
LBAR 17.5N 119.1W 18.1N 120.3W 19.1N 122.0W 20.1N 123.6W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 32KTS 26KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 32KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070712 0000 070713 0000 070714 0000 070715 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.9N 124.6W 24.4N 126.4W 26.7N 128.0W 28.6N 129.3W
BAMD 20.3N 124.0W 22.2N 125.2W 24.5N 126.4W 26.6N 127.7W
BAMM 20.6N 125.7W 23.1N 127.8W 26.2N 129.2W 29.6N 129.9W
LBAR 21.8N 125.2W 26.5N 127.2W 35.9N 127.4W 41.9N 126.3W
SHIP 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 119.1W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 118.1W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 116.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

No Cosme according to the 00:00z models.