TD 05E

[Chacor]

WTPZ45 KNHC 141439
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052007
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007

DEEP CONVECTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONSOLIDATED THIS MORNING. EARLY
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY EXPOSED CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM 1200 UTC WERE
2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED FOR TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE-E.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS LOSE THE
VORTEX IN LESS THAN TWO DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE
MARGINAL SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER 28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER AND UNDER 10 KT
OF NORTHERLY SHEAR. IN THE NEAR TERM...THESE TWO FACTORS CAN AID
THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER AS THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THE OCEAN
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 25 OR 24
DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS INHIBITING FACTOR SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN THREE DAYS OR SO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 15.5N 114.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 16.0N 116.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 17.6N 124.8W 30 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 18.0N 130.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Chacor]

644
FKPZ25 KNHC 141439
TCAPZ5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052007
1500 UTC SAT JUL 14 2007

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070714/1500Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: FIVE-E
NR: 001
PSN: N1530 W11424
MOV: WNW 11KT
C: 1006HPA
MAX WIND: 030KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 141800 N1545 W11527
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 150000 N1600 W11630
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 150600 N1615 W11745
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 151200 N1630 W11900
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 035KT
NXT MSG: 20070714/2100Z


$$

TS in 6 hours.

[cycloneye]

Finnally the drought of more than 40 days without a named system will be over.

[CrazyC83]

Finnally the drought of more than 40 days without a named system will be over.

It's about time considering July in the EPac is like August in the Atlantic.

[HURAKAN]

TD 5, is not that I want to rush you, but you have less than 36 hrs to become Cosme or Dalila.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 141900
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1900 UTC SAT JUL 14 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE (EP052007) 20070714 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070714 1800 070715 0600 070715 1800 070716 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 115.6W 17.1N 117.8W 17.8N 120.0W 18.5N 122.5W
BAMD 16.1N 115.6W 16.5N 117.5W 16.7N 119.6W 17.0N 121.8W
BAMM 16.1N 115.6W 16.8N 117.8W 17.3N 120.3W 18.0N 122.8W
LBAR 16.1N 115.6W 16.9N 117.8W 17.7N 120.5W 18.5N 123.3W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 35KTS 36KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 35KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070716 1800 070717 1800 070718 1800 070719 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 125.0W 19.9N 129.8W 21.3N 133.8W 22.5N 136.3W
BAMD 17.4N 124.3W 18.5N 129.0W 19.7N 132.9W 20.6N 135.2W
BAMM 18.6N 125.6W 19.5N 131.1W 20.5N 135.7W 21.6N 138.8W
LBAR 19.2N 126.2W 21.0N 131.4W 23.6N 133.6W 25.0N 132.8W
SHIP 35KTS 27KTS 23KTS 20KTS
DSHP 35KTS 27KTS 23KTS 20KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 115.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 113.1W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 111.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN



No Cosme for TD-5-E at this 18:00z run.But they leave a small window for it to become a minimal storm.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 142111
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052007
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007

THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE
THIS MORNING...AND THE CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED NEAR THE
NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1346 UTC
SHOWED UN-FLAGGED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT
30 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
BE KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED
BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE UKMET
MODEL...WHICH INITIALIZED THE CYCLONE THE BEST.

DESPITE THE WARM 28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER...10 TO 15 KT OF NORTHERLY
SHEAR IS INHIBITING FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. THE CYCLONE HAS ABOUT A 12 TO 24 HOUR WINDOW TO INTENSIFY TO
STORM STRENGTH BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS...WHEN IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 16.2N 116.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 16.7N 117.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 16.9N 120.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.8N 122.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 16.6N 123.7W 30 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 16.0N 126.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

WWWW

[WindRunner]

I'm sorry, I've seen better looking waves than this. When I looked at 5E on NRL, my first thought was that the close-up was out of place. Then I realized . . . wow . . .



Looking back, I see it's looked somewhat better in the past . . . but not by much. Definately one of the weaker depressions . . . especially for July in the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 150046
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC SUN JUL 15 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE (EP052007) 20070715 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070715 0000 070715 1200 070716 0000 070716 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 116.7W 16.6N 118.8W 17.6N 121.2W 18.5N 123.5W
BAMD 15.8N 116.7W 16.0N 118.6W 16.3N 120.6W 16.8N 122.8W
BAMM 15.8N 116.7W 16.4N 118.9W 17.3N 121.3W 18.2N 123.7W
LBAR 15.8N 116.7W 16.2N 119.1W 16.9N 121.7W 17.6N 124.5W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 37KTS 37KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 37KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070717 0000 070718 0000 070719 0000 070720 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 125.8W 20.9N 130.2W 22.9N 134.2W 24.4N 136.7W
BAMD 17.5N 125.2W 19.0N 129.7W 21.0N 133.5W 23.0N 135.4W
BAMM 19.2N 126.2W 20.9N 131.1W 22.7N 134.8W 24.2N 136.8W
LBAR 18.3N 127.4W 20.2N 132.5W 22.8N 135.7W 26.1N 134.5W
SHIP 34KTS 23KTS 18KTS 19KTS
DSHP 34KTS 23KTS 18KTS 19KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 116.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 114.2W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 112.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

No Cosme.

[Chacor]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150234
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052007
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E LOOKS QUITE SICK. ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND THE LOW CLOUD LINES INDICATE THE
CIRCULATION CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED AND ELONGATED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. HAVING SAID
THAT...THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATER AND STILL HAS TONIGHT'S
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM AHEAD OF IT. ONE MORE BURST OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE DEPRESSION ENTERING A RATHER
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SHEAR...COLD WATER...AND STABLE AIR
TOMORROW. DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED IN A DAY OR
SO...IF NOT SOONER.

GIVEN THE POOR ORGANIZATION...TRACKING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BEEN DIFFICULT AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER
UNCERTAIN 285/12. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 15.9N 117.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 16.3N 118.9W 25 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.4N 121.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.3N 123.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

Three in a row and counting...

[P.K.]

Not long left.

WTPZ45 KNHC 150831
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052007
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE THIS MORNING. DVORAK DATA T
NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND WITH THE LACK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
THE SYSTEM BARELY CLASSIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO FIND IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE 0215 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS QUITE SMALL AND THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 25 KT.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS RATHER HOSTILE WITH
STRONG SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THEREFORE...IT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/12 AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS
EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SEVERAL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT LOW COULD BE ABSORBED BY THE
LARGER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DURING THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 16.2N 118.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 16.5N 120.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 16/0600Z 16.7N 122.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 16/1800Z 16.5N 124.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[CrazyC83]

Looks as good as dead right now. I'd say the next advisory is the last. You won't be turning into Dalila (out of order)...

[Andrew92]

there has not been much change in the unimpressive convective
pattern during the past few hours...and data T-numbers remain at
1.5. The low-level circulation... however...is losing
definition...in part because inflow has become disrupted by the
larger tropical cyclone nearby to the southwest. TD 5-E is also
headed toward cooler waters... and it is forecast to degenerate
into a remnant circulation or possibly dissipate altogether by
tomorrow. The depression continues west-northwestward at about 13
kt. This general motion... in between high pressure to the north
and the larger cyclone to the south... will probably continue until
dissipation.


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 15/2100z 17.1n 121.1w 25 kt
12hr VT 16/0600z 17.5n 123.1w 25 kt...remnant low
24hr VT 16/1800z 17.9n 126.0w 25 kt...remnant low
36hr VT 17/0600z...dissipated

$$
forecaster Knabb

[Cyclenall]

I could tell this wasn't going to do anything right from the start. I have to catch up on more important TC's though...

[Andrew92]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160232
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052007
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING DEEP
CONVECTION. IN FACT...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE EXPOSED
CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE SMALL SURFACE
SWIRLS ROTATING ABOUT THE CYCLONE'S CENTER. AN EARLIER 1847Z TRMM
WIND IMAGE REVEALED WINDS OF NO MORE THAN 20 KT. THE TRMM OVERPASS
ALSO INDICATED AN AREA OF RAIN-FLAGGED WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BANDING FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER...THAT AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
GENEROUSLY REMAINS AT 25 KT ONLY DUE TO THE LINGERING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO WEST OF THE CENTER.

THE DISSIPATING CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT AROUND 12 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF TROPICAL STORM
COSME TO THE SOUTHWEST.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.6N 122.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 16/1200Z 18.2N 124.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/0000Z 18.8N 126.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

Buh-bye.