TD Six-E=TS Cosme=TD Cosme in EPAC,CPAC

[Cyclenall]

I think Cosme is a TS again IMO. I haven't seen it look this good for a while. I wonder what the CPHC will do.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would put good money on this system being a tropical storm if the recon went into it. Its a tropical storm.

[Chacor]

20/0600 UTC 16.2N 148.5W T2.5/2.5 COSME -- Central Pacific Ocean

CPHC agrees on T2.5:

345
TXPN40 PHFO 200646
TCSCP

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0640 UTC FRI JUL 20 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME LOCATED AT 16.0N 148.3W AT 20/0600 UTC
BASED ON 4 KM RESOLUTION GOES-11 IR IMAGERY AND ANIMATION. POSITION
ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM ONE MINUTE MEAN WIND SPEED
35 KT. MOVEMENT TOWARDS 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HOURS

REMARKS...A LOG-10 WRAP OF 0.4 YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET AND PT
AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON DT.

$$
HOUSTON

We could see an upgrade at the next adv.

[Coredesat]

I'd have to agree, the convection has been increasing in coverage and organization, although there still isn't much:



This is probably a TS. Unfortunately, the last QuikSCAT run missed the system, though one run a few hours ago had a few uncontaminated 35 kt wind barbs.

[Chacor]

180
WHXX01 KMIA 200719
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0719 UTC FRI JUL 20 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME (EP062007) 20070720 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070720 0600 070720 1800 070721 0600 070721 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 148.3W 16.6N 151.3W 17.1N 154.3W 17.5N 157.3W
BAMD 16.0N 148.3W 16.6N 150.8W 17.1N 152.9W 17.6N 154.7W
BAMM 16.0N 148.3W 16.6N 151.0W 17.2N 153.5W 17.6N 155.8W
LBAR 16.0N 148.3W 16.5N 151.0W 17.2N 153.8W 17.7N 156.6W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 37KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070722 0600 070723 0600 070724 0600 070725 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 160.3W 18.7N 166.8W 20.2N 173.2W 22.0N 178.0W
BAMD 18.1N 156.5W 19.6N 160.3W 21.2N 164.6W 23.9N 169.1W
BAMM 17.8N 158.1W 18.5N 163.1W 19.8N 168.1W 22.4N 172.9W
LBAR 18.1N 159.2W 17.7N 164.2W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 38KTS 35KTS 39KTS 47KTS
DSHP 38KTS 35KTS 39KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 148.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 15.7N LONM12 = 145.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 15.3N LONM24 = 142.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Chacor]

WTPA31 PHFO 200830
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
1100 PM HST THU JUL 19 2007

AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.1 WEST OR
ABOUT 465 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 680
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BIG
ISLAND AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FACING SHORES. ALL PERSONS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
ALL WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...16.1 N...149.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER MATSUDA

[Chacor]

Something slightly different to read this time, lol

171
WTPA41 PHFO 200844
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
1100 PM HST THU JUL 19 2007

WHILE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER COSMES CENTER FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS IT HAS BEEN SHEARED WHERE THE CENTER IS UNDERNEATH THE
CONVECTIONS EAST EDGE BUT HAS NOT BEEN EXPOSED. MICROWAVE VIEWS
OF COSME NEAR 05Z PLACES RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ITS
LOCATION WHICH HAS SHOWN A MORE DIRECT 270 DEGREE WESTWARD MOTION.
STRONG LOWER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NORTH PERSUADES US
TO FURTHER PROJECT A MORE WESTWARD TRACK DISTANCING ITSELF SLIGHTLY
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BIG ISLAND BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE PROJECTED
PATH NOW MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS GFDL AND ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

INTENSITY HAS BEEN KEPT AT DEPRESSION LEVELS BUT FURTHER CONVECTIVE
BANDING MAY UP IT LATER INTO MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM LEVELS. ON THE
STREGTHENING SIDE COSME IS MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY WARMER WATER...
THE 80 DEGREE SST PARALLELS 160W LONGITUDE. ON THE WEAKENING SIDE
HIGH LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE SHEARING WEST OF 150W
LONGITUDE. THUS WE HAVE PUNTED AND KEPT THE PRESENT INTENSITY FOR
120 HOURS. MOST MODELS KEEP THE INTENSITY IN A NARROW 25 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 16.1N 149.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 16.2N 151.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 16.5N 154.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 16.8N 158.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 16.8N 161.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 17.5N 167.3W 30 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 18.2N 173.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 19.2N 179.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER MATSUDA

[Chacor]

Not sure what SHIPS is on... 54 kts?

940
WHXX01 KMIA 201254
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1254 UTC FRI JUL 20 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME (EP062007) 20070720 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070720 1200 070721 0000 070721 1200 070722 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 149.9W 16.6N 152.9W 17.1N 155.9W 17.6N 158.8W
BAMD 16.0N 149.9W 16.5N 152.1W 17.0N 154.0W 17.6N 155.8W
BAMM 16.0N 149.9W 16.7N 152.5W 17.2N 154.9W 17.7N 157.2W
LBAR 16.0N 149.9W 16.4N 152.6W 16.9N 155.3W 17.4N 158.1W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070722 1200 070723 1200 070724 1200 070725 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 161.9W 19.1N 168.1W 20.7N 173.9W 22.6N 178.4W
BAMD 18.3N 157.5W 20.1N 161.3W 21.8N 165.1W 24.1N 168.4W
BAMM 18.1N 159.5W 19.2N 164.4W 20.6N 169.3W 23.3N 173.9W
LBAR 17.7N 160.6W 18.7N 165.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 41KTS 41KTS 46KTS 54KTS
DSHP 41KTS 41KTS 46KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 149.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 146.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 143.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Chacor]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JUL 2007 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 16:10:00 N Lon : 149:55:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1004.4mb/ 41.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.9 2.7 2.7

20/1200 UTC 16.1N 149.9W T2.5/2.5 COSME -- Central Pacific Ocean

Also T2.5 from CPHC.

[HURAKAN]

Not sure what SHIPS is on... 54 kts?

SHIPS may need:

[Chacor]

Looks like SHIPS isn't so wacky after all, CPHC is bringing Cosme back to 40 kts in the future...

WTPA21 PHFO 201430
TCMCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
1500 UTC FRI JUL 20 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 150.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 150.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 149.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.1N 153.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 156.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.7N 159.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.9N 162.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.4N 169.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.6N 175.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 19.6N 179.6E
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 150.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWNING

[HURAKAN]

Does Cosme have his passport authorized to cross the border towards the WPAC?!?!?!

[Chacor]

Does Cosme have his passport authorized to cross the border towards the WPAC?!?!?!

It would be the first EPac-named storm to make it into the WPac since Typhoon John in 1994, I believe.

[HURAKAN]

Does Cosme have his passport authorized to cross the border towards the WPAC?!?!?!

It would be the first EPac-named storm to make it into the WPac since Typhoon John in 1994, I believe.

Hurricane Dora did it in 1999.

[HurricaneRobert]

Hopefully it will remain Cosme.

[Chacor]

Does Cosme have his passport authorized to cross the border towards the WPAC?!?!?!

It would be the first EPac-named storm to make it into the WPac since Typhoon John in 1994, I believe.

Hurricane Dora did it in 1999.

So it did, thanks for reminding me.

[Chacor]

Hopefully it will remain Cosme.

In what sense? If it crosses, it retains its name.

[HURAKAN]

Actually, as I suspected, Jimena was the last one, barely.

Storm Name: JIMENA Cyclone Number: 10E Basin: NEP


Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 AUG 28 0600 13.7 N 129.5 W 1008 30
03 AUG 28 1200 14.4 N 131.0 W 1007 30
03 AUG 28 1800 14.4 N 131.8 W 1005 35
03 AUG 29 0000 15.3 N 133.0 W 996 50
03 AUG 29 0600 16.1 N 134.1 W 994 55
03 AUG 29 1200 16.6 N 135.7 W 987 65
03 AUG 29 1800 16.9 N 136.9 W 981 75
03 AUG 30 0000 17.2 N 138.3 W 973 85
03 AUG 30 0600 17.3 N 139.9 W 973 85
03 AUG 30 1200 17.3 N 141.4 W 973 85
03 AUG 30 1800 17.3 N 142.9 W 973 90
03 AUG 31 0000 17.6 N 144.5 W 970 90
03 AUG 31 0600 17.8 N 146.2 W 971 90
03 AUG 31 1200 18.0 N 147.7 W 971 90
03 AUG 31 1800 18.1 N 150.0 W 970 85
03 SEP 01 0000 18.2 N 151.6 W 981 85
03 SEP 01 0600 18.1 N 153.2 W 987 75
03 SEP 01 1200 17.4 N 154.7 W 1000 65
03 SEP 01 1800 17.0 N 156.0 W 1002 50
03 SEP 02 0000 16.5 N 157.5 W 1005 45
03 SEP 02 0600 16.1 N 159.2 W 1006 40
03 SEP 02 1200 15.5 N 160.3 W 1005 35
03 SEP 02 1800 15.2 N 162.1 W 1005 35
03 SEP 03 0000 15.1 N 163.4 W 1005 35
03 SEP 03 0600 15.1 N 164.5 W 1009 30
03 SEP 03 1200 14.7 N 166.3 W 1009 25
03 SEP 03 1800 14.7 N 168.3 W 1009 25
03 SEP 04 0000 14.7 N 170.1 W 1009 25
03 SEP 04 0600 15.0 N 171.9 W 1009 25
03 SEP 04 1200 15.2 N 173.5 W 1008 30
03 SEP 04 1800 14.4 N 175.7 W 1005 35
03 SEP 05 0000 13.5 N 177.4 W 1006 35
03 SEP 05 0600 13.5 N 179.1 W 1009 30
03 SEP 05 1200 13.4 N 179.2 E 25 JTWC warnings
03 SEP 05 1800 13.2 N 177.4 E 25

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/garyp_mgtcs/aug03tks.txt

[HURAKAN]

Hopefully it will remain Cosme.

In what sense? If it crosses, it retains its name.

Yes, only that if it reaches 65 knots, then it's not a hurricane, but a typhoon. John in 1994 and Dora in 1999 were a hurricane and a typhoon.

[Chacor]

03 SEP 05 1200 13.4 N 179.2 E 25 JTWC warnings
03 SEP 05 1800 13.2 N 177.4 E 25

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/garyp_mgtcs/aug03tks.txt

Well, JMA doesn't carry TDs in its BT. And I was referring to tropical storm strength anyway.