TD Six-E=TS Cosme=TD Cosme in EPAC,CPAC

[HURAKAN]

03 SEP 05 1200 13.4 N 179.2 E 25 JTWC warnings
03 SEP 05 1800 13.2 N 177.4 E 25

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/garyp_mgtcs/aug03tks.txt

Well, JMA doesn't carry TDs in its BT. And I was referring to tropical storm strength anyway.

Then Dora the Explorer is your storm!!!

[Chacor]

731
WTPA41 PHFO 201506
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
500 AM HST FRI JUL 20 2007

CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF -70C TOPS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FLATTENING OF THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELD ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF COSME...INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
INITIAL POSITION HAD A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION ON GOES 11 INFRARED
IMAGERY...HOWEVER LATEST 37GHZ AMSRE PASS SHOWED THE CENTER NEAR
16.0 N...WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A RELATIVELY TIGHT CLUSTERING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BRINGING COSME SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. BEYOND THAT...THE
GFS SHIFTS THE TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM GETS INFLUENCED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ITS NORTH. THE ECMWF AND UKMET BOTH KEEP
THE SYSTEM MOVING NEARLY DUE WEST...AND THIS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION...INTENSITY...AND MOTION OF THE SYSTEM.
BARRING ANY RAPID INTENSIFICATION...THE TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCED PRIMARILY BY MID AND LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WOULD KEEP
IT ON A WESTWARD TRACK.

AS FAR AS FORECAST INTENSITY GOES...COSME WILL CROSS INTO WATER
TEMPERATURES OVER 80 DEGREES IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS...SO THE
INTENSITY WAS BROUGHT UP TO 35 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS...THEN A MODEST
INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS. SHIPS BRINGS THE SYSTEM UP TO
OVER 50 KNOTS BY 120 HOURS...BUT MOST OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE SYSTEM WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 16.0N 150.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 16.1N 153.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 156.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 16.7N 159.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 16.9N 162.9W 40 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 17.4N 169.4W 40 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 18.6N 175.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 19.6N 179.6E 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWNING

[HurricaneRobert]

Hopefully it will remain Cosme.

In what sense? If it crosses, it retains its name.

If it makes it through at TD strength, will JMA acknowledge that it is Cosme or will they assign it a new name?

[HURAKAN]

Even if he crosses as a TD, this system already has a name, COSME. I think JMA will not assigned a new name because it already has one.

[Psyche1118]

Whats the current outlook? I am over here on the big island wondering what is going on-and what the models (esp. UKMET) mean and what is the general consensious here?
Thanks

[cycloneye]

000
WTPA41 PHFO 202059
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
1100 AM HST FRI JUL 20 2007

COSME CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE 1605Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT COSME HAD BECOME AN OPEN WAVE...THE APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE AMBIGUITIES IN THE WIND DATA BASED ON ITS GFS FIRST- GUESS INPUT.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO AND SAB WERE 2.5...WITH JTWC INDICATING 1.5. SUSTAINED WINDS AT BUOY 51004...ABOUT 60 NM NNW OF COSME...HAVE INCREASED TO 27 KT. THUS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15. COSME CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW AND MID LEVEL EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...IF COSME HOLDS TOGETHER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN GAINING LATITUDE A LITTLE FASTER AS IT REACHES THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 25.5C...BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING OVER WARMER WATER DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. AFTER 36 HOURS... THE SSTS INCREASE MORE QUICKLY ALONG THE TRACK. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A TROUGH NORTHEAST OF HAWAII WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH COSME...CONTINUING TO KEEP MODERATE SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FIRST 60 HOURS OR SO. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 60 HOURS...IF THE SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE THE SHEAR.

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT BUOY 51004 HAS SPIKED AND IS NOW READING 13 FEET. FOR THIS REASON...WE HAVE INCLUDED A 90 NM RADIUS OF 12 FOOT SEAS IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 16.6N 152.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 16.7N 155.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 17.0N 158.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 17.2N 161.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 17.6N 164.7W 30 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 18.2N 171.1W 35 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 19.4N 176.8W 35 KT
120HR VT 25/1800Z 20.3N 178.3E 35 KT


$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD


Here is the latest advisory and discussion about the Tropical Depression.

000
WTPA31 PHFO 202101
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
1100 AM HST FRI JUL 20 2007

...COSME STILL EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT...

AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.6 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...AND ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH
OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND ASSOCIATED WITH
COSME.


LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SURF ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG SHORES FACING EAST AND SOUTHEAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATCHES...WARNINGS... AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...16.6 N...152.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[Psyche1118]

Thank you Ballard. Much appreciated. So, no major dangerous action for Big Island-just our normal heavy rain. Living here is always a constant track of tsunamis, earthquakes, and extreame storm systems.
Any inside info appreciated.

Fab

[Cyclenall]

Thank you Ballard. Much appreciated. So, no major dangerous action for Big Island-just our normal heavy rain. Living here is always a constant track of tsunamis, earthquakes, and extreame storm systems.
Any inside info appreciated.

Fab

Welcome to the board! I don't think Cosme may will do a whole lot to the Big Island but will bring some weather surely. Ballard is the forecaster from the CPHC (Central Pacific Hurricane Center), the member who posted it is Luis (cycloneye) .

Whats the current outlook? I am over here on the big island wondering what is going on-and what the models (esp. UKMET) mean and what is the general consensious here?
Thanks

It will go south of the island according to the CPHC. I highly doubt it will have a chance to reach and make "landfall" as there is nothing to suggest it.

Then Dora the Explorer is your storm!!!

That must have been one hell (excuse the language) of a tropical cyclone to track, a sister of Hurricane John. Those are perfect for the basin (scooping the whole Pacific!!).

Not much change for Cosme today. The CPHC wanted Cosme to maintain that convection from early this morning to upgrade it back to a TS. Convection now on the east side, it's been everywhere!

Did anyone take a look at the latest track map for Cosme from the CPHC? It's messed up pretty bad (it appears to be a glitch). I'm still wondering what happened to those other products for each TC. For example, the 1-2-3 mariners rule is gone and some loops and archive data of the tracks and such is not there. Someone should email them about that.

[Cyclenall]

Is there a reason why this isn't on the CIMSS site anymore? It's not there!

[Chacor]

Is there a reason why this isn't on the CIMSS site anymore? It's not there!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt06E.html

Last analysis was from 15Z July 20.

[Chacor]

Sorry fans, no TS crossover at 5 pm HST advisory.

[Chacor]

WTPA41 PHFO 210248
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
500 PM HST FRI JUL 20 2007

IT IS CERTAINLY NOT DIFFICULT TO FIND THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER
OF COSME ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE OVERALL SATELLITE
PRESENTATION IS NO BETTER THAN SIX HOURS AGO. THE DEPRESSION PASSED
ABOUT 65 NM SOUTH OF BUOY 51004 AT ABOUT 20Z...WITH 13 FOOT SEAS AND
HIGHEST SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF 27 KTREPORTED. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES RANGED FROM 2.5 FROM SAB AND
PHFO...AND 1.5 FROM JTWC. WE WILL MAINTAIN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/17. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK
PHILOSOPHY...AS COSME CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 33N. THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE EVENTUALLY BRINGS COSME A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AS
IT REACHES THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

COSME IS CURRENTLY OVER WATER OF 26C...AND IS SUFFERING FROM 20 TO
30 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACCORDING TO THE UW/CIMMS SHEAR
ANALYSIS. THE SHEAR IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT OVER PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER WATER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WEST IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. IT IS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THESE HARSH
CONDITIONS. WE HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DOWNWARD...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COSME WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 16.5N 154.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 16.6N 157.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 16.8N 160.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 16.9N 163.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 17.3N 167.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 18.1N 173.4W 25 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 19.5N 178.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 26/0000Z 21.8N 176.8E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[Psyche1118]

Well, I am interested to see what happens as it moves towards the other islands. Too bad they predicted it to dissapate rapidly, we'll see.

[Chacor]

Public advisory...

000
WTPA31 PHFO 210244
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
500 PM HST FRI JUL 20 2007

...COSME PASSING SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS EVENING AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A WESTWARD COURSE WELL SOUTH OF THE OTHER ISLANDS...

AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.7 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF HILO...AND ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS EVENING...AND 330 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINS OF UP TO 5 TO 10 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ON THE BIG ISLAND AS COSME PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
ROUGH SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...16.5 N...154.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[Chacor]

Should be gone by the 11 HST advisory.

[Chacor]

567
WTPA31 PHFO 210845
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
1100 PM HST FRI JUL 20 2007

AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.6 WEST OR
ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO...AND ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND COSME WILL
LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION WILL BRING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AS
IT PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. ROUGH SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATCHES...
WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...16.3 N...156.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWNING

[Chacor]

152
WTPA41 PHFO 210852
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
1100 PM HST FRI JUL 20 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME PASSED ABOUT 160 NM SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT
ON THE BIG ISLAND EARLIER THIS EVENING...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS AT SEVERAL SPOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 1.5 FROM PHFO AND 2.0 FROM SAB SUGGEST MAINTAINING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW WELL WEST OF A SMALL AREA OF
REMNANT CONVECTION...AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT
COSME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/17 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS
STEERED BY LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW. IN THE LONGER TERM...WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF COSME WILL LIKELY BEGIN A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT
APPROACHES THE DATE LINE AND ROUNDS THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

IT MAY SOON BE TIME TO BID ADIOS TO COSME...AS THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY SUFFERING FROM 15 TO 20 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACCORDING TO
GOES SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE INCREASED SHEAR IS DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING IN TANDEM
WITH COSME...AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST CIRA/RAMMB
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT GRAPHIC SHOWS THE SYSTEM ENTERING AN AREA
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BY AROUND 00Z ON THE
24TH...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRENGTHENING TUTT AROUND
177W...WITH STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR RESULTING. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR REINTENSIFICATION OF
COSME...SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS ONLY A REMNANT LOW AFTER 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 16.3N 156.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 16.3N 159.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 16.3N 163.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 22/1800Z 16.6N 166.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 23/0600Z 16.9N 170.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 24/0600Z 17.9N 177.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 25/0600Z 19.7N 177.3E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/0600Z 21.4N 172.5E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWNING

[HURAKAN]

HASTA LA VISTA, SEE YOU ON 2013.

21/1200 UTC 16.1N 157.5W T1.5/2.5 COSME -- Central Pacific Ocean

Is going down!!!

[HURAKAN]

Not, is not Invisible Man, is Cosme!!!

[Chacor]

Still alive, just about.

614
WTPA41 PHFO 211445
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
500 AM HST SAT JUL 21 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION PASSED
ABOUT 70 NM SOUTH OF BOUY 51002...AND BROUGHT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 27
KT AND SEAS OF 12 FT. THIS TOGETHER WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 2.0 FROM PHFO AND 2.5 FROM SAB SUGGESTS MAINTAINING AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL WEST
OF A SMALL AREA OF REMNANT CONVECTION LOCATED ABOUT 160 NM EAST OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/17 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS
STEERED BY LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AS A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH OF COSME MOVES WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE SYSTEM.
THIS NORTH TO NORTHWEST SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AT LEAST...SO EVEN THOUGH COSME IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF MORE FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL REGENERATE. THE LACK OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY REQUIRE COSME TO BE
DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 16.1N 158.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 16.1N 161.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 16.2N 165.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 23/0000Z 16.4N 168.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 23/1200Z 16.9N 172.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 24/1200Z 18.1N 179.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 25/1200Z 19.7N 175.7E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/1200Z 21.7N 170.9E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWNING