TD Six-E=TS Cosme=TD Cosme in EPAC,CPAC

[P.K.]

I'm not sure how many of you noticed, but the final advisory from the NHC (adv 18) gave the initial position in the CPac at 2100Z. However, the NHC is supposed to give initial positions at 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800Z.

If you look at the JTWC warning you will understand why.

NHC:
INITIAL 18/2100Z 15.0N 140.1W

JTWC:
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 139.5W

I noticed that last night but I think there is a simple explanation. I believe the 1800 analysis had it at 139.5W and so still in RSMC Maimi's AOR. You are right the 2100 advisory had it at 140.1W but I believe that is a 3 hour forecast from 1800.

EP, 06, 2007071818, 03, OFCL, 0, 150N, 1395W, 35, 0, TD, 34, NEQ,
EP, 06, 2007071818, 03, OFCL, 3, 150N, 1401W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ,

From what I've seen most of the time the position given in advisories is simply a 3 hour forecast based on the analysis time, nothing new there.

[Cyclenall]

I forgot to ask this, how do you pronounce "Cosme" correctly? I've been pronouncing it as "cause-may" or is it "cause-me"?

[RattleMan]

I forgot to ask this, how do you pronounce "Cosme" correctly? I've been pronouncing it as "cause-may" or is it "cause-me"?

"Cause-may".

ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropi ... 510.ABPZ20

[Chacor]

Still a TD at 18Z although SHIPS is going crazy on it. Waiting for 00Z models.

[HURAKAN]

I forgot to ask this, how do you pronounce "Cosme" correctly? I've been pronouncing it as "cause-may" or is it "cause-me"?

"Cause-may".

ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropi ... 510.ABPZ20

COS- MAY.

I pronounce it in Spanish simply as "Cosme."

[Chacor]

531
WHXX01 KMIA 200049
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0049 UTC FRI JUL 20 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME (EP062007) 20070720 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070720 0000 070720 1200 070721 0000 070721 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 146.8W 16.6N 149.6W 17.2N 152.7W 17.7N 155.7W
BAMD 16.1N 146.8W 16.7N 149.4W 17.3N 151.6W 17.7N 153.5W
BAMM 16.1N 146.8W 16.7N 149.5W 17.3N 152.1W 17.7N 154.5W
LBAR 16.1N 146.8W 16.7N 149.5W 17.4N 152.3W 17.9N 155.1W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS 38KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070722 0000 070723 0000 070724 0000 070725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 158.7W 18.7N 164.9W 19.5N 171.4W 20.7N 177.0W
BAMD 18.1N 155.2W 19.0N 158.4W 20.2N 162.0W 22.2N 166.1W
BAMM 18.0N 156.8W 18.4N 161.5W 19.3N 166.3W 21.0N 170.9W
LBAR 18.3N 157.8W 18.9N 162.8W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 40KTS 37KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 40KTS 37KTS 38KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 146.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 143.6W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 140.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Cyclenall]

It's better looking now then it has all day. More convection on the west side.

That SHIPS run is odd but I like it .

[HURAKAN]

20/0000 UTC 16.1N 146.6W T2.5/2.5 COSME -- Central Pacific Ocean

Dvorak gives Cosme pass to the Tropical Storm Club.

[Chacor]

Remember, there are different agencies doing Dvorak fixes.

CPHC themselves disagree slightly:

TXPN40 PHFO 200036
TCSCP

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0025 UTC FRI JUL 20 2007

Tropical depression Cosme located at 15.9°N 146.7°W at 19/2330 UTC based on 1 km resolution visible and 4 km resolution IR imagery and animation. Position accurate within 30 nm. Estimated maximum one minute mean wind speed 35 kt. Movement towards 275 degrees at 18 kt over the past 6 hours.

T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24 hours

Remarks: A log-10 wrap of 0.35 yields a DT of 1.5. With a correction factor of .5 comes out with a DT 2.0. The MET agrees and the PT is 2.0. The Final T is a 2.0. Also the center of Cosme has become more elongated during the course of the day oriented north to south.

$$
LAU

[HURAKAN]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
1100 AM HST THU JUL 19 2007

AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.7 WEST OR ABOUT 670 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 880 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...15.9 N...145.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
1100 AM HST THU JUL 19 2007

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF COSME IS LESS DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRESENTLY CONFINED TO THE WEST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT AROUND 16 MPH. A 1748 UTC SSMI PASS SHOWED THE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF 16N. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 1.0 TO 2.5. THE AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS WAS 33 KT. A 1500 UTC QUICKSCAT PASS MISSED THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM BUT HAD ONE 34 KT WIND BARB ON THE EDGE OF THE PASS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT.

A RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO STEER COSME TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 287 DEGREES AT 14 KT. THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING THE WEST NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE UKMET AND THE BAMD ARE THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH COSME MOVING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. HAVE STAYED DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS BUT HAVE NUDGED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IN ACCORDANCE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY DUE TO A UPPER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THAT TIME.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT LESS CERTAIN. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE AROUND COSME AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS OF AROUND 77 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THE LATEST GFDL AND SHIP FORECASTS NOW SHOW COSME STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WATER TEMPERATURE OR SHEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WE ARE FORECASTING NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY. SHIPS INTENSIFIES COSME TO 43 KT IN 120 HOURS LIKELY DUE TO THE WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT COSME IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW STRONG THE SHEAR WILL BE. THE SHEAR WILL BE GREATER THE FURTHER NORTH COSME TRAVELS. WE WILL KEEP THE INTENSITY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PAST 72 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 15.9N 145.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 16.5N 148.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 17.0N 151.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 17.5N 154.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 17.9N 157.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 18.7N 162.9W 30 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 19.3N 168.7W 30 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 19.7N 174.6W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[HURAKAN]

COSME CONTINUES TO ROLL.

[Chacor]

HURAKAN, that is from 2100Z - that is not the latest information.

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN, that is from 2100Z.

I just didn't see it posted and believed it was actual.

[Chacor]

510
WTPA41 PHFO 200252
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
500 PM HST THU JUL 19 2007

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF COSME IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM
WITH DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST QUADRANT. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 2.5. THE SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN OVERALL APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
SO HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT.

A RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO STEER COSME TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 283 DEGREES AT 18 KT. THE MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING THE WEST NORTHWEST MOTION BUT
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 BUT IT STILL
REMAINS GENERALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS LESS CERTAIN. CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO FLAIR UP MAINLY WEST OF THE CENTER. COSME REMAINS OVER FAIRLY
COOL WATER OF ABOUT 77 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THE LATEST GFDL AND
SHIP FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BACK
TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITH SHIPS INDICATING 40 KT AT 48 HOURS
AND 45 KT OUT AT 120 HOURS. THE HWRF GUIDANCE BRINGS COSME UP TO 37
KT IN 36 HOURS AND 47 KT OUT AT 48 HOURS. THE UW-CIMSS EXPERIMENTAL
VERTICAL SHEAR TC INTENSITY TREND ESTIMATES SHOW LESS SHEAR OVER
THE SYSTEM THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND INDICATED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 18 HOURS THEN BACK TO NEUTRAL IN 24
HOURS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WATER TEMPERATURE AND A POORLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CENTER...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
AFTER 60 HOURS...WE EXPECT COSME TO BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATER BUT
ALSO INTO AN AREA WITH STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR FROM A UPPER TROUGH
NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. IT IS HARD TO SAY WHICH OF
THESE FACTORS WILL PREVAIL. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 72 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 16.3N 147.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 16.7N 150.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 17.3N 153.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 17.8N 157.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 18.1N 160.3W 30 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 18.6N 166.2W 30 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 19.0N 172.1W 30 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 19.4N 177.9W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Cyclenall]

There isn't much change from each discussion, not that I can blame them though. I even thought at one point I was reading the same one.

[HURAKAN]

What makes the forecast uncertain is that the forecasters are uncertain about what will happen with Cosme.

[JonathanBelles]

Why is half of the cosme track cut off on the CPHC site? Hawaii is also cut out.

[JonathanBelles]

forgot the pic

[Cyclenall]

Why is half of the cosme track cut off on the CPHC site? Hawaii is also cut out.

It's like that at the cimss site as well.