TD Six-E=TS Cosme=TD Cosme in EPAC,CPAC

[Chacor]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 141631
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
1000 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007

FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER...LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH
DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP TROPICAL EASTERLY FLOW. SINCE
THIS STEERING PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE...THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5
DAYS.

THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG BUT...SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN.
THEREFORE...ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLIMATOLOGY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1700Z 11.2N 126.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 11.5N 128.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 12.0N 130.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 12.5N 132.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 13.0N 135.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 13.5N 138.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 14.5N 143.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

This might be the more concerning one in the end. Will it be Cosme or Dalila as TD5-E has no guarantee of becoming a storm, while this most likely will.

[HURAKAN]

I already did the Pythagorean Theorem and they are more than 700 miles apart and they are weak at the moment. I don't see interaction between them and they are forecasted to move further apart.

[Chacor]

Well, did you take into account position accuracy?

The wikipedia article says 900 miles at most, anything more and no interaction, so it's still possible at this point, given their tracks (WNW 11 kt for 05E, W 11 kt for 06E) - unlikely to get really that far apart.

[AnnularCane]

It's twins!

I wonder which one will be named first...IF they get named. They haven't had much luck lately.

[Chacor]

The six-hour forecast for 06E is 30 kt but 05E is 35 kt, so 05E probably.

[HURAKAN]

TD #5 is looking better organized now than when it was upgraded at 11 AM. Convection is stronger and the center is less exposed. I wouldn't be surprised if at 5 PM we get Cosme if it continues to develop.

[Coredesat]

That stratocumulus on the left side of that satellite image is not a good sign for either 05E or 06E. Both could encounter that stable air before long.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 142030
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007

THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION DEFINED BY A FEW
CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...BUT IT LACKS A CONVECTIVE
INNER CORE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KNOTS IN ACCORD WITH
LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT...THE DEPRESSION IS HEADING TOWARD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...ONLY
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF BOTH
THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLIMATOLOGY.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-ESTABLISHED
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 11.4N 127.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 11.6N 128.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 12.0N 130.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 12.5N 132.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 13.0N 133.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 13.5N 136.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 14.0N 138.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

KMIA 150048
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC SUN JUL 15 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (EP062007) 20070715 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070715 0000 070715 1200 070716 0000 070716 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 127.0W 11.4N 128.5W 11.9N 129.7W 12.6N 130.5W
BAMD 11.2N 127.0W 11.8N 128.6W 12.4N 130.2W 12.9N 131.8W
BAMM 11.2N 127.0W 11.5N 128.5W 12.0N 129.8W 12.5N 130.9W
LBAR 11.2N 127.0W 11.5N 128.6W 12.1N 130.3W 12.6N 132.3W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 46KTS 56KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 46KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070717 0000 070718 0000 070719 0000 070720 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 131.1W 15.8N 132.6W 19.2N 134.9W 22.1N 136.7W
BAMD 13.1N 133.2W 12.8N 136.3W 13.6N 139.4W 15.5N 141.9W
BAMM 13.1N 131.5W 14.4N 133.2W 17.3N 135.4W 20.2N 137.2W
LBAR 13.0N 134.6W 12.7N 139.5W 12.2N 144.6W 12.8N 148.6W
SHIP 59KTS 55KTS 42KTS 39KTS
DSHP 59KTS 55KTS 42KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 127.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 125.9W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 124.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

No Cosme.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007

THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...WITH CLOUD SWIRLS
ROTATING AROUND A HARD TO DISCERN CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THERE
STILL IS LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND ONLY ONE
WELL-DEFINED BAND WHICH IS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. OVERALL...
THE CONVECTION IS LESS VIGOROUS THAN SIX HOURS AGO.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER POSITION IS UNCERTAIN...THE INITIAL MOTION
APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 270/6. SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES
AND THE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
MODELS NOW SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 135W. SOME MODELS
SHOW THE CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION ELONGATING AND THEN BEING EJECTED
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF THE ITCZ...AND INDEED THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
ROTATION IS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE EVEN FARTHER
TO THE NORTH.

THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LIGHT SHEAR...AND WARM WATERS. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION
IS STILL ENGAGED WITH THE ITCZ AND THE CONVECTION IS WIDELY
DISPERSED. THIS WOULD ARGUE AGAINST RAPID DEVELOPMENT... ALTHOUGH
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS VERY HIGH. AFTER 36
HOURS OR SO...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER 26C WATERS
SO WHATEVER INTENSIFICATION DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 11.3N 127.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 11.5N 128.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 12.2N 129.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 13.0N 130.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 132.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 14.5N 136.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 15.0N 139.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 15.5N 142.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


Still has a window to be Cosme.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I hope it doe's not become Cosme. Why because Td3,4,5,6 have all be depressions. What is the record?

[Chacor]

Since the NHC took over from the EPHC in 1988 there hasn't been more than two depressions in a row, so if 05E remains a depression we'd already have the record I think.

[AnnularCane]

This one might make it, I think. Maybe. It's getting to where I'm starting to expect all these poor little EPAC TD's to go poof.

[P.K.]

WTPZ41 KNHC 150824
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION DEFINED BY A
FEW BANDING FEATURES AND LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM OCEAN WOULD FAVOR SOME
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY REACH COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...INHIBITING
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO
BE MOVING ERRATICALLY WITHIN A LARGER GYRE. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
295/4. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER
THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS THE RIDGE
REBUILDS. INITIALLY...DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A MORE AGGRESSIVE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...BUT ALL AGREE ON TURNING THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD LATER IN FORECAST PERIOD... AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 11.5N 127.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 11.9N 128.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 13.0N 129.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 131.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 136.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 15.5N 140.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 16.0N 144.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Chacor]

Likely up to 30 kts next adv...

525
WHXX01 KMIA 151246
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC SUN JUL 15 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (EP062007) 20070715 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070715 1200 070716 0000 070716 1200 070717 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 127.2W 13.0N 128.5W 13.9N 129.8W 14.9N 131.0W
BAMD 12.1N 127.2W 13.1N 128.7W 14.1N 130.2W 14.8N 131.8W
BAMM 12.1N 127.2W 12.9N 128.5W 13.8N 129.8W 14.7N 131.0W
LBAR 12.1N 127.2W 12.7N 128.3W 13.4N 130.1W 13.8N 132.0W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 53KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070717 1200 070718 1200 070719 1200 070720 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 132.2W 17.9N 135.8W 20.7N 139.9W 22.8N 143.5W
BAMD 15.4N 133.6W 16.6N 137.5W 18.6N 141.6W 20.6N 144.7W
BAMM 15.5N 132.4W 17.5N 136.1W 20.0N 140.3W 21.9N 143.7W
LBAR 13.9N 134.0W 13.8N 139.3W 15.0N 143.9W 17.6N 147.3W
SHIP 52KTS 39KTS 32KTS 30KTS
DSHP 52KTS 39KTS 32KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 127.2W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 126.9W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 125.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better.

[HURAKAN]

TD 5 Discussion:
"SEVERAL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT LOW COULD BE ABSORBED BY THE
LARGER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DURING THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS."

No Fujiwara, just some eating!!!

[CrazyC83]

This one might make it, I think. Maybe. It's getting to where I'm starting to expect all these poor little EPAC TD's to go poof.

If the EPac is not conducive for development, the Atlantic usually is.

[Chacor]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 151448
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED A BIT THIS MORNING WITH A
LARGE CURVED BAND OCCUPYING THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF THE LARGE
CIRCULATION...WHICH HAD BEEN LACKING OVERNIGHT. BASED ON A 1032 UTC
TRMM MICROWAVE PASS...THE CENTER WAS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE PREVIOUS LOCATION...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BUMPED UP TO
30 KT. IF THIS ORGANIZING TREND OF THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES...
THE CYCLONE COULD BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

SINCE POSITION FIXES FROM THE TRMM AND GOES DATA COINCIDE WELL...
THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...NOW ESTIMATED AT
310/5. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK IN AND TAKE THE CYCLONE GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE RELOCATION OF
THE CENTER.

WITH WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR CURRENTLY INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM...
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE
CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SINCE THE
CIRCULATION IS LARGE...HOWEVER...THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IS
EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL IN THE SHORT TERM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 12.3N 127.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 13.0N 127.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 14.0N 129.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 14.7N 130.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 15.3N 132.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 137.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 16.0N 141.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 17.0N 145.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI