Typhoon Usagi in Western Pacific

[P.K.]

Held at 45kts at 2100. They don't usually upgrade at 0300, 0900, 1500 or 2100 so going from a Tropical Storm to Severe Tropical Storm will have to wait for the full 0000 advisory.

WTPQ20 RJTD 292100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0705 USAGI (0705)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 292100UTC 19.1N 143.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 302100UTC 22.0N 140.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 311800UTC 25.1N 138.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 011800UTC 30.6N 136.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[cycloneye]

Oh well,It would be better that only one agencie does advisories like in the Atlantic,EPAC and CPAC to avoid some confusion that comes with issuing advisories with different intensitys.

[RL3AO]

The reason the JTWC doesn't issue advisories for the Atl, EPac and CPac is because the NHC uses 1 minute sustained which meets the requirements of the U.S. military.

[Derek Ortt]

There ARE two gov't agencies that issue advisories for the Atlantic... NHC and CHC and the intensities do not always agree. However, CHC is official for Canada only, while NHC is the official international agency. JMA is the official int'l agency

For the record, their 45KT 10 minute does not seem that far off... strong TSs (using our 1 minute average) sometimes have an eye on microwave

[RL3AO]

This is going to be a beautiful storm. Hopefully it misses Japan.

[HurricaneRobert]

It probably won't, but it looks like it will go through rapid intensification soon.

[Chacor]

STS 0705 (USAGI)
Issued at 00:00 UTC, 30 July 2007
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0705 USAGI (0705) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 19.2N 142.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 190NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 310000UTC 21.9N 140.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 010000UTC 25.7N 138.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 020000UTC 30.8N 135.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT

Please, this is but a severe tropical storm. Please change the name on the main forum page.

[Chacor]

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/menu/JTFAQ.html

JTWC's FAQ.

Q: How are JTWC forecasts different than forecasts issued by tropical cyclone warning centers (TCWCs) of other countries?

A: One difference is the measurement of maximum sustained surface winds. JTWC uses the 1-minute mean wind speed to determine maximum sustained surface winds, as required by the U.S. National Hurricane Operations Plan. Other countries, however, use the 10-minute mean wind speed to determine maximum sustained surface wind speeds. The difference generally means that JTWC will report higher maximum sustained surface wind speeds than non-U.S. TCWCs for the same cyclone. Another difference is that JTWC will issue forecasts out to 120 hours in the North Pacific Ocean as required by U.S. DoD.

Likewise, the JTWC does not have naming responsibility.

[btangy]

Looks like another storm for Japan.

I would also put S Korea in the cone of uncertainty. I wouldn't be surprised if the JTWC and JMA have to shift their forecast tracks much further W.

As for intensity, this thing could shoot up really rapidly given the ideal upper level conditions and high upper ocean heat content. The inner core convection needs to consolidate a bit more for this to happen though, which could occur tonight during the diurnal max.

[WindRunner]

Looks like it's trying to condense down before "taking the peek" . . .

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This could become a very
powerful typhoon.
Looking organized with very
deep convection...
Could go up to Category 3 perhaps...

[Typhoon Hunter]

The latest JTWC prognostic reasoning is an interesting read. There's quite a bit of uncertainty as to the westerly extent of the track. Here's what they have to say:

WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W WARNING NR07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AND DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED
AS THE STORM HAS TRACKED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. A 292309Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE 85 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTED
A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING IN OVER KOREA AND
JAPAN COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC HAS
ALLOWED FOR DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW PATTERN TO SETUP OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS CAUSED THE TY TO INTENSIFY AT A GREATER
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

B. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED NEAR 35N 170E AND EXTENDING WEST-SOUTH-
WESTWARD TO ABOUT 145E. A BREAK IN THE STR NEAR 140E IS IN RESPONSE
TO THE TROUGHING THAT REMAINS OVER JAPAN AND THE TY ITSELF. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED UPON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AS WELL AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.0 FROM PGTW AND 3.5 FROM RJTD. THE STORM
IS IN A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.

3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TY 05W HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE LAST
PROG REASONING.

B. TY 05W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE WEAKNESS OF THE STEERING RIDGE. THE
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH FOR THE STORM TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD. TY 05W WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE TO TWO
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE FORECAST REMAINS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CON-
SENSUS AND TO THE EAST OF THE CONSENSUS.

C. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72 REMAINS HIGH, BUT THE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY, LEADING TO A RE-
CURVATURE SCENARIO ONCE THE TY MOVES INTO THE 30N-35N LATITUDES.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH TWO SEPARATE GROUP OF OBJECTIVE
AIDS. THE GFDN, EGGR, NOGAPS, AND UKMO MODELS RESTRENGTHEN THE STR NORTH
OF THE TY CAUSING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA THEN
RECURVING WEST OF KYUSHU. THE SECOND GROUPING OF JTYM, ECMWF, GFS, AND
JGSM
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STR WILL NOT STRENGTHEN, ALLOWING THE TY TO
TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS AND INTO THE MID-
LATITUDES IN THE REGION OF HONSHU, JAPAN. GIVEN THE VERIFICATION HISTORY
OF THE JGSM AND JTYM AND TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECASTS
WE KEPT THE TRACK FASTER AND EAST OF THE CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
WIDE SPREAD OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS AFTER TAU 48 FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AN
ISSUE. THE STORM IS FORECASTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE ISLAND OF
SHIKOKU
AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF HONSHU, JAPAN AS THE
STORM
BEGINS ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120. TY 05W WILL INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT NEARS AND THEN MAKES LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 96 AS THE TY TRACK
MOVES OVER FAVORABLE REGION OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND STILL MAINTAINS
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 05W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO TAU 96 DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION AND GREATER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF THE MID-
LATITUDES.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0705 USAGI (0705)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 19.5N 142.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 190NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 310300UTC 22.4N 139.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 010000UTC 25.7N 138.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 020000UTC 30.8N 135.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT

[Typhoon Hunter]

Up to 55kts now and the forecast track has shifted westwards towards the island of Kyushu, the same area which was struck by Man-yi:

STS 0705 (USAGI)
Issued at 06:00 UTC, 30 July 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0705 USAGI (0705)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 20.0N 141.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 190NM EAST 160NM WEST

FORECAST
24HF 310600UTC 22.3N 139.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 010600UTC 26.6N 135.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 020600UTC 31.2N 131.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT

[P.K.]

1200 RSMC Tokyo Dvorak estimate remains at T4.0 (As it was at 0600).

[P.K.]

1800 CI from RSMC Tokyo is T4.5, closing in on typhoon status.

[RL3AO]

I think we will be seeing that eye open up on the visible pretty soon.

[WindRunner]

18z JMA bulletin . . . up to 60kts/975hPa, with 80kts at T+24 . . .
JTWC is up to 85kts/959mb at 18z as well . . .


RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0705 USAGI (0705)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 21.3N 140.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 311800UTC 23.6N 137.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 011800UTC 27.4N 134.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 021800UTC 32.4N 131.3E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT

[HURAKAN]

He's popping!!!

[WindRunner]

It would appear so . . . although an eye this size may take a while to pop out . . .




EDIT: or better yet (albeit older)