Tropical Storm Erick E-PAC.

[Brent]

The EPac is way below average.

Yep....

Their season begins before the Atlantic does and peaks earlier.

Anyway... looks like this one is going to struggle for a couple of days, at least the Atlantic isn't the only one with those problems.

[HurricaneBill]

Remember, the EPAC has been in an inactive period since 1995.

[RL3AO]

Also I edited this in but it got stuck on the old page.


The WPac is really below average. There have been seasons with 17 storms by now and the average right now is 13 storms...Usagi is #5.

[RL3AO]

Any of the Pro mets know why they didn't initialize as a tropical storm?

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT...A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

[Derek Ortt]

I havnt checked but maybe the AF had a lower T number (I eprsonally think the 2.5/2.5 is too high, maybe 1 .5/1.5 or 2.0/2.0)

[RL3AO]

08E.ERICK is here.

[hurricanefloyd5]

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 010222
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007
0300 UTC WED AUG 01 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 124.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 124.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 124.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.1N 125.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.5N 128.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 13.5N 140.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 13.5N 144.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 124.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

Looks like this one is going into steady-state mode for a while.

[Chacor]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 010223
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 31 2007

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND
DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INSIST THAT THE
SYSTEM IS A TROPICAL STORM. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...ERICK IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND
VERY DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW
FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING ONLY AS INDICATED BY SHIPS. GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE.

ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. A STRONG
ELONGATED EAST-WEST MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY ANCHORED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP ERICK
ON A WESTWARD TRACK TROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS AND
BOTH HWRF AND GFDL KEEP ERICK ON A WESTWARD PATH AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 13.1N 124.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 13.1N 125.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 13.5N 128.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 13.5N 130.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 13.5N 132.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 13.5N 136.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 13.5N 140.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 13.5N 144.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[hurricanefloyd5]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 010223
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 31 2007

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND
DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INSIST THAT THE
SYSTEM IS A TROPICAL STORM. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...ERICK IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND
VERY DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW
FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING ONLY AS INDICATED BY SHIPS. GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE.

ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. A STRONG
ELONGATED EAST-WEST MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY ANCHORED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP ERICK
ON A WESTWARD TRACK TROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS AND
BOTH HWRF AND GFDL KEEP ERICK ON A WESTWARD PATH AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 13.1N 124.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 13.1N 125.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 13.5N 128.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 13.5N 130.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 13.5N 132.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 13.5N 136.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 13.5N 140.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 13.5N 144.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[RL3AO]

The NRL is wacky again...have Erick back to depression strength.

[RattleMan]

The NRL is wacky again...have Erick back to depression strength.

Has the NONAME tag, but the images are 35kt. Weird.

"20070801.0330.goes11.x.ir1km_bw.08ENONAME.35kts-1005mb-131N-1240W.100pc.jpg"

[AnnularCane]

That is odd. *glances at Erick* He looks fine to me, from what I can tell.

The NHC site seems a bit screwed up too. It keeps going down, and they still have Erick as 99E on the floater.

[RL3AO]

Sounds like the NHC likes the area behind Erick. Maybe 90E tomorrow.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

[Chacor]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 010835
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007
200 AM PDT WED AUG 01 2007

MICROWAVE AND MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS PROBABLY STILL NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT
35 KT...AND THIS IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS RATHER AMORPHOUS...WITH A LACK OF BANDING FEATURES...
WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. ERICK CONTINUES TO
BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF EASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE. DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR IN ABOUT 36 HOURS
BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THEREFORE ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING
IS CALLED FOR...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
BELOW THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. AS NOTED EARLIER...THE GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER LOCATION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...IT IS ESTIMATED
THAT THE STORM IS CONTINUING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT AROUND 9
KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF ERICK
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THEREFORE THE CURRENT MOTION IS LIKELY TO MORE OR LESS BE
MAINTAINED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT FASTER THAN
THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 13.0N 125.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 13.1N 126.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 13.2N 128.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 13.3N 130.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 13.5N 132.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 13.5N 136.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 13.5N 139.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 13.5N 143.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007
800 AM PDT WED AUG 01 2007

LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS
INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OR STRUCTURE OF ERICK. STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AMORPHOUS BLOB OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES IS 35 KT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GRADUALLY FALLING
AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LESS THAN IDEAL.
THEREFORE ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT ERICK IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS
275/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE ERICK SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTH AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN LINE WITH LATEST TRACK MODEL TRENDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 13.2N 126.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 13.3N 127.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.5N 129.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 130.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 13.9N 132.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 14.0N 136.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 14.0N 139.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 14.0N 142.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[HURAKAN]

So far the EPAC has been providing the CPHC something to live for!!! First Cosme, now Erick.

[AnnularCane]

Poor Erick. He actually looks OK to me, but I haven't seen an actual visible yet.

[RL3AO]

Erick stuck at 35 kts still.