Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (CPAC): Discussions, Analysis and Ima

[cyclonic chronic]

if it has stalled, i think it'll be better for intensity no matter where it goes. the upwelling of cooler sst's should further weaken it.

[cyclonic chronic]

i can no longer get radar from se Hawaii. anyone else having that prob?

[Sanibel]

I would guess bend back west with this solid guidance.

But these things can do anything.

[cyclonic chronic]

after stalling, flossie seems to be more symetric than earlier, based on ir

[Coredesat]

Flossie's eye has reappeared:

[whereverwx]

[HurricaneRobert]

Her eye has always been there. It's just been hard to see on anything except radar or visible satellite.

[whereverwx]

It's outflow appears to be improving.

[Sanibel]

No stall, still churning along south of island.

CNN had an on-air guy at South Point. There were big waves and windy with overcast.

[cycloneye]

Guess who is there too,yes all of you imagine. JC.

[HurricaneRobert]

How is Flossie still that beautiful? I hope she becomes annular again and makes it to the West Pacific (as a fish spinner of course). Hawaii surfers can enjoy their waves.

[Dick Pache]

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/HFO/HLSHFO.0708150042

HURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
240 PM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
OF HAWAII...

...NEW INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS SECTION FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS
ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 200 PM HST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS NEAR LATITUDE
17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 155.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 160 MILES
SOUTH OF HILO...HAWAII. FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY. GIVEN THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE WILL PASS ABOUT 70
MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
COUNTY OF HAWAII CIVIL DEFENSE REPORTED THAT THE HONOLII
ROAD...POHOIKI ROAD AT THE HIGHWAY 137 JUNCTION AND THE PORT OF HILO
HAVE BEEN CLOSED. THE FOLLOWING AREAS AND FACILITIES ALSO REMAIN
CLOSED...PUNALUU BEACH PARK...SOUTH POINT...VACATIONLAND...
WHITTINGTON BEACH PARK...THE MAUNA KEA ACCESS ROAD FROM THE 9000 FT
ELEVATION AND ALL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SCHOOLS.

YOUR PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. COURTESY SHELTERS HAVE BEEN OPENED IN ALL COUNTY
DISTRICTS. TUNE TO YOUR LOCAL RADIO STATION FOR INFORMATION ON
SHELTER LOCATIONS AND OTHER PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. IF YOU REPORT TO
A SHELTER...BRING ALL PERSONAL ITEMS YOU NEED INCLUDING BEDDING.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
OBSERVATIONS FROM PUNALUU BEACH PARK INDICATED 15 TO 20 FT SURF
WHILE REPORTS FROM POHOIKI WERE IN THE 10 TO 20 FT RANGE. THE
FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR SURF TO REACH 20 TO 25 FT. SURF AT THESE
LEVELS IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND DAMAGE DUE
TO WAVE RUNUP. SUBSTANTIAL SHORELINE EROSION IS ALSO LIKELY.
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE AREAS INCLUDE PUNALUU...VACATIONLAND AND
COASTAL PROPERTIES IN THE KAPOHO BEACH AREA.

SURF ALONG NORTHEAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL RISE TO 10
TO 15 FT TODAY...AND WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING AND SHORELINE
EROSION. AVOID ENTERING THE WATER AND STAY AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH TO THE SOUTHERN BIG ISLAND TODAY. WINDS OF
THESE INTENSITIES WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO LIGHT STRUCTURES AND TREES.

HOWEVER...IF THE TRACK OF FLOSSIE SHIFTS NORTHWARD...HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER COULD AFFECT SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
BIG ISLAND...RESULTING IN MUCH GREATER DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

...FLOODING IMPACTS...
RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE BIG ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRING
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 INCHES OR GREATER IN THE
KAU DISTRICT...AND 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE PUNA AND SOUTH HILO
DISTRICTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE HEAVY RAINS MAY PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE KAU DISTRICT. A PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE
SPOT WILL BE HIGHWAY 11 NEAR MILE POST 58. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN
THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN CLOSURE OF THE HIGHWAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 545 PM HST OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

$$

KODAMA

[HURAKAN]

Looks nice.

[Sanibel]

On short-range radar now. Looks like a closer pass than forecast unless shear is putting center in wrong place. Heavy bands 25 miles offshore.


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=HWA&loop=yes

[Chacor]

000
WTPA42 PHFO 150254
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 PM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

AFTER BEING CLOUD-COVERED...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE BRIEFLY CLEARED IN VISIBLE AND WARMED IN INFRARED IMAGERY EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER...RADAR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW SHOWS RECURRING WEAKNESS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RADAR SHOWING AN ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AT 0200 UTC. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THESE GAPS OCCASIONALLY REFORM. IN SHORT...HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS NOW HAVING DIFFICULTY RETAINING AN INTACT EYEWALL. THE 26 KT VERTICAL SHEAR NOTED OVER FLOSSIE BY UW-CIMMS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THIS SYSTEM. CI VALUES AT 0000 UTC RANGE FROM 4.5 FROM CPHC AND SAB TO 5.0 FROM JTWC...65 TO 77 KT. LATEST AVAILABLE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOWED 90 KT ONLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. WE WILL CONTINUE THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND BY INITIALIZING FLOSSIE AT 85 KT FOR THIS RUN.

WE WILL WEAKEN FLOSSIE FOLLOWING THE TREND SUGGESTED BY SHFR 5-DAY MODEL GUIDANCE...LEAVING THIS SYSTEM AT 20 KT AT 120 HOURS. FLOSSIE MAY WEAKEN FASTER IF SHEAR INCREASES AND THE EYEWALL TOTALLY COLLAPSES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG GRADIENT FLOW EXISTS FAR NORTH OF FLOSSIE...RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 KT AT SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND SHORTLY BEFORE 0300 UTC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY TIGHTER FOR THIS PACKAGE...WITH BAMD AND HWFI REPRESENTING THE RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS...RESPECTIVELY. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE OLD ONE...FOLLOWING CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. BOTH CONB AND CCON TAKE SHARP DEPARTURES TO THE RIGHT BEYOND 48 HOURS...WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AS FLOSSIE RESPONDS TO LOWER STEERING WITH FURTHER WEAKENING. INITIAL TRACK MOTION IS 295 AT 7 KT BASED ON RADAR. HURRICANE FLOSSIE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 17.5N 155.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 18.0N 156.7W 80 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 18.7N 158.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.7N 160.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 162.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 21.9N 167.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 23.4N 171.7W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 24.4N 176.2W 20 KT

$$

FORECASTER POWELL

[Chacor]

Downgraded.

000
WTPA32 PHFO 150846
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.4 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...17.5 N...156.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[Thunder44]

Looks like Flossie weakened rapidly on her closet approach to the Big Island. They dodged another bullet.

[Chacor]

000
WTPA42 PHFO 150902
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOW TEARING FLOSSIE APART.

HURRICANE FLOSSIE SURPRISED US BY MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS LONG AS IT DID...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IS NOW DOWN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 993 MB AT 0513 UTC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE TOPS OF THE SYSTEM SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IS NOW EMERGING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS. WITH STRONG SHEAR CONTINUING OVER FLOSSIE WE ARE FORECASTING STEADY WEAKENING WITH ONLY A REMNANT LOW REMAINING BY 120 HOURS.

THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASED QUITE A BIT ON THIS PACKAGE BUT WE SEE NO REASON TO DEPART FROM A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK. WE HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND SPEEDED IT UP A BIT TO REFLECT A GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL STEERING AS FLOSSIE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 17.5N 156.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 17.9N 157.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 18.5N 159.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 19.1N 161.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 19.6N 163.9W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 20.4N 168.9W 30 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 21.3N 174.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 20/0600Z 22.0N 179.8E 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They have a god protecting them. They will not be hit again by a cane.

[Aslkahuna]

Goddess actually, but even Pele' can't protect them from a future hurricane that forms in CENPAC SE of HI and tracks north like Iniki (or Iwa).

Steve