Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (CPAC): Discussions, Analysis and Ima

[clfenwi]

WTPZ44 KNHC 082031
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007
200 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2007

THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MONITORED FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE NINTH
TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THIS EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.
SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT TWO...ALBEIT RAGGED...HOOKING BANDS. BASED
ON AN ANALYSIS OF QUIKSCAT DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ONLY ABOUT 25 KT. THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...
LGEM...AND GFDL GUIDANCE. SHOULD THE CYCLONE MOVE MORE TO THE
NORTH OF THE NHC FORECAST TRACK...STRENGTHENING IS UNLIKELY DUE TO
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING MAINLY WESTWARD AND CURRENT MOTION IS
ABOUT 270/10. NINE-E IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD
THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY BE NEARING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...SO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST IN 4-5
DAYS. THE NHC TRACK IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE HWRF MODEL
AND TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 13.7N 126.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 13.7N 128.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 13.6N 130.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 13.5N 133.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 13.5N 135.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 14.0N 140.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 144.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 13/1800Z 16.0N 148.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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91-E discussion

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[RL3AO]

Looks like another monster 45 kt system.

[AnnularCane]

Looks like the same old story. Pretty little TD too.

[HURAKAN]

For a depression it looks nice!!!

[HurricaneRobert]

That's the prettiest depression in the EPac so far this year. Let's hope it goes south of Hawaii (I still don't want to see it dissipate in the CPac).

[Derek Ortt]

after looking at the sats tonight, I'd estimate this system to be at TS intensity right now. Probably a 2.5/2.5

[Derek Ortt]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07080900

Seems as if NHC agrees with my sat estimate, as does SSD

[Chacor]

Sure got its act together in a hurry.

[Derek Ortt]

since it looks as if it may threaten Hawaii, I plan on starting forecasts on this system tomorrow at 1500 UTC

[Chacor]

after looking at the sats tonight, I'd estimate this system to be at TS intensity right now. Probably a 2.5/2.5

They heard you.

EP, 09, 200708090000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1340N, 12770W, , 3, 35, 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SAB, GR, VI, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES11, CSC, T,
EP, 09, 200708090000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1340N, 12780W, , 3, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, GR, VI, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES11, CSC, T, DT = 2.5 BASED ON 0.4 BANDING. NLINEMET= 2.0 PAT=

T2.5/2.5 from both SAB and TAFB.

[RL3AO]

Oh Flossie...where are you.

[Cyclenall]

after looking at the sats tonight, I'd estimate this system to be at TS intensity right now. Probably a 2.5/2.5

Definitely, It could even be at 40 knots right now. This is no depression now.

Over the past hours, TD9-E has quickly strengthened and the banding and organization has improved significantly, more so then many, if not all the systems we have seen so far this Epac season. The NRL site is having a hard time updating fast enough though, it didn't pick up hours earlier then it usually does.

The NHC forecast may have to be changed upwards now and I doubt the peak strength in 120 hours is going to be 40-45 knots. Maybe the GFDL model is finding something else that we can't really see currently as to why a CAT2-3 hurricane out there.

The following post is NOT an official forecast/product and should not be used as such. It's just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

First % chance of TD9-E (TS Flossie by now) becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 98% (Should be 100% by now)
Hurricane: 70%
Category 2 Hurricane: 55%
Category 3 Hurricane: 35%
Category 4 Hurricane: 10%
Category 5 Hurricane: 3% ~ (Mostly unknown due the the fact this could cross into the Cpac and then go the "Ioke way" by small chance since it's August and that time of year)

[RL3AO]

It wouldn't be the first system this year to look good and be dead a day later.

[cycloneye]

956
WTPZ44 KNHC 090231
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007
800 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2007

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW UNANIMOUSLY 35 KT. BASED ON THIS
DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE. FLOSSIE
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT...LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. FOR
NOW...SSTS ARE PLENTY WARM WITH CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES AROUND
28C. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STABLE AIR...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PRESENCE
OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE COULD INHIBIT
INTENSIFICATION. INDEED THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS ARE DIVERGENT
WITH PEAK INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 48 KT TO 75 KT. DESPITE THE
SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...ALL BUT THE HWRF HAVE TRENDED UPWARD.
ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARDS BUT BELOW THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE...BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/12. THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MEXICO. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS APPROACHES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 13.4N 128.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 13.2N 130.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 13.2N 132.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 13.2N 134.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 13.3N 136.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 13.9N 140.7W 50 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 15.0N 145.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 16.0N 149.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[AnnularCane]

Hey there, Flossie. Isn't she a beauty?

Why does the NHC site still have her as 91E on the floater?

[RL3AO]

The CPHC might get a second storm to follow. How lovely.

[Chacor]

Third, if you count Erick's remnants (91C).

[Cyclone1]

Wow, The past 3 Epac storms kinda snuck up on me. Go to the NHC page and there they were. Any way, Flossie isn't looking very bad at all. I think we could eventually have out second hurricane, maybe.

[HURAKAN]

The CPHC might get a second storm to follow. How lovely.

So they don't bored to death in such an active basin!!!

It's so active the CPAC that they need to borrow storm from the EPAC!!!

[Cyclenall]

I think the NHC is choosing the more conservative route for Flossie. Peak strength only 50 knots. I'm curious if she will pull more surprises or just go act like Dalila did .