Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (CPAC): Discussions, Analysis and Ima
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Andrew92
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Great news; however, it IS still a hurricane. If I were in Hawaii, I would still be watching and maybe having some preparations ready just in case she makes a visit.
I think and am hopeful that Flossie will pass to the south. Even so, at minimum, the waves will be kicked up quite a bit and there will likely be some showers, along with quite possibly some blustery winds.
-Andrew92
I think and am hopeful that Flossie will pass to the south. Even so, at minimum, the waves will be kicked up quite a bit and there will likely be some showers, along with quite possibly some blustery winds.
-Andrew92
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WTPA32 PHFO 140609
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
800 PM HST MON AUG 13 2007
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM HST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.5 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...
39 MPH AND HIGHER...DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FLOSSIE
TUESDAY MID-MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS HURRICANE FLOSSIE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ANY SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK
TOWARDS THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND...WILL RESULT IN
HIGHER WINDS.
THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WILL BRING 6 TO 10 FT SURF TO SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 FT ON TUESDAY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE 5 TO 8 FEET TODAY INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 FEET TUESDAY.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS MAY PRODUCE 10 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL IN KAU DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALLER AMOUNTS...5 TO 10 INCHES...MAY FALL ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
REPEATING THE 800 PM HST POSITION...16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.5 WEST. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
WTPA32 PHFO 140609
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
800 PM HST MON AUG 13 2007
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM HST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.5 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...
39 MPH AND HIGHER...DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FLOSSIE
TUESDAY MID-MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS HURRICANE FLOSSIE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ANY SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK
TOWARDS THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND...WILL RESULT IN
HIGHER WINDS.
THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WILL BRING 6 TO 10 FT SURF TO SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 FT ON TUESDAY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE 5 TO 8 FEET TODAY INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 FEET TUESDAY.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS MAY PRODUCE 10 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL IN KAU DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALLER AMOUNTS...5 TO 10 INCHES...MAY FALL ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
REPEATING THE 800 PM HST POSITION...16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.5 WEST. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in CPAC
Thunder44 wrote:NRL has Flossie at 100kts.
And 970 hPa. That's a remarkably high pressure for a major hurricane.
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841
WTPA32 PHFO 140855
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST MON AUG 13 2007
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...
...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 153.2 WEST OR ABOUT
260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 455 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...OAHU.
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE
IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155
MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...
39 MPH AND HIGHER...DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FLOSSIE
TUESDAY MID-MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS HURRICANE FLOSSIE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ANY SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK
TOWARDS THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND...WILL RESULT IN
HIGHER WINDS.
THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WILL BRING 6 TO 10 FT SURF
TO SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT...INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 FT ON TUESDAY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND WILL BE 5 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 FEET
TUESDAY.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS MAY PRODUCE
10 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL IN KAU DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALLER AMOUNTS...5 TO 10 INCHES...MAY
FALL ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...16.4 N...153.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
WTPA32 PHFO 140855
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST MON AUG 13 2007
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...
...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 153.2 WEST OR ABOUT
260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 455 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...OAHU.
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE
IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155
MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...
39 MPH AND HIGHER...DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FLOSSIE
TUESDAY MID-MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS HURRICANE FLOSSIE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ANY SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK
TOWARDS THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND...WILL RESULT IN
HIGHER WINDS.
THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WILL BRING 6 TO 10 FT SURF
TO SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT...INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 FT ON TUESDAY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND WILL BE 5 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 FEET
TUESDAY.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS MAY PRODUCE
10 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL IN KAU DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALLER AMOUNTS...5 TO 10 INCHES...MAY
FALL ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...16.4 N...153.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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00
WTPA42 PHFO 140929
TCDCP2
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST MON AUG 13 2007
FLOSSIE IS SHOWING DEFINITE SIGNS OF WEAKENING.
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE DATA HAVE SHOWN A CLEAR WEAKENING TREND FOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE. AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 970 MB AT 0503 UTC AND THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE EYE DISAPPEARING BY 0500 UTC WITH THE CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING STRETCHED OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. APPARENTLY SHEAR IS FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL ON FLOSSIE. THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES GAVE CI NUMBERS OF 5.5 AND 5.0. WE USED A CONSERVATIVE 100 KT FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. BOTH AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS AND A 0430 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A VERY ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD. WE INCREASED THE WIND RADII ON THE NORTH SIDE OF FLOSSIE AND DECREASED THEM ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO EXTEND OUT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND AS FLOSSIE PASSES SOUTH OF THE ISLAND TOMORROW. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUE FOR THE BIG ISLAND. WE STILL EXPECT THAT NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE ISLANDS EXCEPT THE BIG ISLAND. A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD CHANGE THIS EXPECTATION...BUT THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND MAKES IT LESS LIKELY THAT FLOSSIE WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT OUTSIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BECOME A BIT LESS TIGHTLY PACKED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT GENERALLY SHOWS A CONTINUED WEST NORTHWEST TRACK. WE HAVE KEPT THE TRACK NEARLY THE SAME EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTH AFTER 72 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT FLOSSIE WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AND TRACK CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0900Z 16.4N 153.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 17.2N 155.2W 85 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 18.0N 157.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 19.0N 159.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 19.8N 162.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 166.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 22.2N 170.1W 35 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 23.4N 174.0W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
WTPA42 PHFO 140929
TCDCP2
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST MON AUG 13 2007
FLOSSIE IS SHOWING DEFINITE SIGNS OF WEAKENING.
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE DATA HAVE SHOWN A CLEAR WEAKENING TREND FOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE. AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 970 MB AT 0503 UTC AND THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE EYE DISAPPEARING BY 0500 UTC WITH THE CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING STRETCHED OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. APPARENTLY SHEAR IS FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL ON FLOSSIE. THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES GAVE CI NUMBERS OF 5.5 AND 5.0. WE USED A CONSERVATIVE 100 KT FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. BOTH AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS AND A 0430 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A VERY ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD. WE INCREASED THE WIND RADII ON THE NORTH SIDE OF FLOSSIE AND DECREASED THEM ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO EXTEND OUT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND AS FLOSSIE PASSES SOUTH OF THE ISLAND TOMORROW. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUE FOR THE BIG ISLAND. WE STILL EXPECT THAT NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE ISLANDS EXCEPT THE BIG ISLAND. A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD CHANGE THIS EXPECTATION...BUT THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND MAKES IT LESS LIKELY THAT FLOSSIE WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT OUTSIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BECOME A BIT LESS TIGHTLY PACKED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT GENERALLY SHOWS A CONTINUED WEST NORTHWEST TRACK. WE HAVE KEPT THE TRACK NEARLY THE SAME EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTH AFTER 72 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT FLOSSIE WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AND TRACK CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0900Z 16.4N 153.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 17.2N 155.2W 85 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 18.0N 157.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 19.0N 159.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 19.8N 162.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 166.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 22.2N 170.1W 35 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 23.4N 174.0W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in CPAC
It's hard to follow the center, without the eye visible on satellite anymore, but it looks to me like it is moving more NW than WNW now, which would bring it closer to the Big Island. The good news is that it does also appear to be continuing to weaken, but probably will not be much below Cat 2 strength, by the time it makes it's closest approach.
On top of all this, they are also dealing with a moderate 5.4 earthquake this morning:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/rec ... hp#details
On top of all this, they are also dealing with a moderate 5.4 earthquake this morning:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/rec ... hp#details
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WTPA32 PHFO 141202
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
200 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007
..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...
..A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
AT 200 AM HST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 153.5 WEST...OR
ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 440
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU.
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE
IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.
THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...
39 MPH AND HIGHER...DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FLOSSIE
TUESDAY MID-MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS HURRICANE FLOSSIE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ANY SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK
TOWARDS THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND...WILL RESULT IN
HIGHER WINDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE RISING TO
20 TO 25 FT TODAY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND
WILL BE 10 TO 12 FEET.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS MAY PRODUCE
10 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL IN KAU DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER AMOUNTS...5 TO 10 INCHES...MAY FALL ON
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 200 AM HST POSITION...16.6 NORTH...153.5 WEST.
MOVEMENT TOWARD WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
Weakened some more now... 972 mbar 110 mph.
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
200 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007
..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...
..A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
AT 200 AM HST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 153.5 WEST...OR
ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 440
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU.
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE
IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.
THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...
39 MPH AND HIGHER...DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FLOSSIE
TUESDAY MID-MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS HURRICANE FLOSSIE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ANY SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK
TOWARDS THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND...WILL RESULT IN
HIGHER WINDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE RISING TO
20 TO 25 FT TODAY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND
WILL BE 10 TO 12 FEET.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS MAY PRODUCE
10 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL IN KAU DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER AMOUNTS...5 TO 10 INCHES...MAY FALL ON
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 200 AM HST POSITION...16.6 NORTH...153.5 WEST.
MOVEMENT TOWARD WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
Weakened some more now... 972 mbar 110 mph.
0 likes
696
TXPN40 PHFO 141238 CCB
TCSCP
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007
HURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 153.4W AT 14/1130 UTC BASED ON
4 KM IR IMAGERY AND ANIMATION FROM GOES-11. POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN
25 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM ONE-MINUTE MEAN WIND SPEED 90 KT.
MOVEMENT TOWARD 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
T4.5/5.0/W1.5/24 HOURS
REMARKS...FLOSSIE REMAINS EYELESS. BUT CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED A BIT
AND HAS WRAPPED MORE TIGHTLY AROUND THE CENTER...PERHAPS TRYING TO
FORM A BANDING EYE. MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED...ALSO A SIGN THAT IT MAY
BE TRYING TO REINTENSIFY. SLIGHT SHEAR THAT APPEARED EARLIER HAS
LESSENED. BUT EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN WITH CENTER JUST OVER 1/2
DEGREE WITHIN LG SURROUNDING SHADE YIELDS DT OF 4.5. MET IS 5.0 AND
PAT IS 4.5. FINAL T BASED ON DT.
$$
FUJII
TXPN40 PHFO 141238 CCB
TCSCP
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007
HURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 153.4W AT 14/1130 UTC BASED ON
4 KM IR IMAGERY AND ANIMATION FROM GOES-11. POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN
25 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM ONE-MINUTE MEAN WIND SPEED 90 KT.
MOVEMENT TOWARD 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
T4.5/5.0/W1.5/24 HOURS
REMARKS...FLOSSIE REMAINS EYELESS. BUT CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED A BIT
AND HAS WRAPPED MORE TIGHTLY AROUND THE CENTER...PERHAPS TRYING TO
FORM A BANDING EYE. MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED...ALSO A SIGN THAT IT MAY
BE TRYING TO REINTENSIFY. SLIGHT SHEAR THAT APPEARED EARLIER HAS
LESSENED. BUT EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN WITH CENTER JUST OVER 1/2
DEGREE WITHIN LG SURROUNDING SHADE YIELDS DT OF 4.5. MET IS 5.0 AND
PAT IS 4.5. FINAL T BASED ON DT.
$$
FUJII
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Note an error - the CPHC calls Flossie a Category 3 hurricane with 110 mph winds (it is really Cat 2).
I would estimate for the 5 am advisory 85 kt/976mb.
Bear in mind 110 mph could have been rounded down from 111 or 112 mph.
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CrazyC83
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Re: Re:
Chacor wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Note an error - the CPHC calls Flossie a Category 3 hurricane with 110 mph winds (it is really Cat 2).
I would estimate for the 5 am advisory 85 kt/976mb.
Bear in mind 110 mph could have been rounded down from 111 or 112 mph.
They should never round into another category...if such is the case, it should be listed as 115.
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cyclonic chronic
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-rb.html
why does the lat. and long. get all messed-up half way thru this loop? at the begining, the big island was roughly at 19.5N, 155.5W, which seems right. at the end of the loop its at 18N, 153W. any thoughts? maybe im crazy
why does the lat. and long. get all messed-up half way thru this loop? at the begining, the big island was roughly at 19.5N, 155.5W, which seems right. at the end of the loop its at 18N, 153W. any thoughts? maybe im crazy
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tolakram
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Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in CPAC
The sat site hiccuped and showed older images for a bit.
She looks to be strengthening again, which is against all forecasts. Do I also detect a slight wobble to the north? I'm guessing on eye position based on the new area of red convection wrapping around the hidden eye.
She looks to be strengthening again, which is against all forecasts. Do I also detect a slight wobble to the north? I'm guessing on eye position based on the new area of red convection wrapping around the hidden eye.
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cyclonic chronic
outer edge of flossie coming into range on South Shore, Hi. radar
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
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DESTRUCTION5
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tolakram
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Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in CPAC
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes
She's been on the long range for a while now.
That does not look like a storm that will go south of the island.
She's been on the long range for a while now.
That does not look like a storm that will go south of the island.
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