Tropical Depression SEPAT: Discussions, Analysis and Image

wxmann_91 · #101 Postby **wxmann_91** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:22 pm

Second near miss microwave pass:

wxmann_91 · #102 Postby **wxmann_91** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:39 pm

I'd really like to thank weatherman21 for sharing how to get WPAC images with IDV.

This is great.

#103 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:41 pm

JTWC now has this at 140kts, with landfall around 135kts. Big and bad.

Ptarmigan · #104 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:44 pm

I notice typhoons that form in the area tend to be smaller.

wxmann_91 · #105 Postby **wxmann_91** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 12:30 am

The eye has just warmed immensely and WV shows a very dry eye!!!

This folks is T7.5-T8.0, the latter possible if cloud tops cool just a little more.

VERY powerful. Probably pressure lower than Wilma now.

(Note: the last sat estimate was at 0230Z when the eye was not as clear as it is now. That estimate was a 7.0)

#106 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 12:36 am

Yeah...if I had to estimate I would say 880-885mb.

Normandy · #107 Postby **Normandy** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 12:45 am

Show us pics of the beauty

....Or tell me where i can get them LOL i need a new desktop background.

wxmann_91 · #108 Postby **wxmann_91** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 12:49 am

Normandy wrote:Show us pics of the beauty

....Or tell me where i can get them LOL i need a new desktop background.

See a few posts above.

There's floater imagery from SSD, and navy images. For archival and value purposes I use IDV, but the Navy has the best images by far if you're just looking at this system for a glance.

#109 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:43 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0708 SEPAT (0708)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 17.9N 126.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 20.9N 123.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 180600UTC 24.1N 121.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 190600UTC 26.1N 118.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

Chacor · #110 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:04 am

WWPN20 KNES 160916
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
WEST PACIFIC OCEAN MTSAT VIS/IRDAY
.
AUGUST 16 2007 0833Z
.
18.3N 125.8E T7.5/7.5/D1.0/24HRS SEPAT(09W)
.
PAST POSITIONS....16.9N 126.8E 15/2033Z IRNIGHT
15.8N 127.9E 15/0833Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS....WMG EYE(+20C) SURROUNDED IN CMG GIVES AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT OF 1.0. EYE SURROUNDED IN CMG YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. WITH
EYE ADJUSTMENT DT IS 7.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT OF 7.5 BASED ON
DT, PT AND MET.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 16/1600Z.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
BANKS
.
NNNN

Coredesat · #111 Postby **Coredesat** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:09 am

I'm absolutely amazed that Sepat has looked so impressive for this long. I wouldn't be surprised to see a T8.0 from someone later, the eye temperature appears to be quite warm (25C?).

It's a shame we don't have recon in this basin anymore.

WmE · #112 Postby **WmE** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:10 am

Coredesat wrote:I'm absolutely amazed that Sepat has looked so impressive for this long. I wouldn't be surprised to see a T8.0 from someone later, the eye temperature appears to be quite warm (25C?).

It's a shame we don't have recon in this basin anymore.

CIMSS has the eye temp. at +21.1°C. Amazing storm.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #113 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:27 am

Its as big as the Gulf of Mexico. :double:

Aquawind · #114 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 6:28 am

Oh my gosh it's only moving 7kts..hope it actually does pick up some speed before landfall or were talkin more than serious problems even for those typhoon ready people. What a machine.. :eek:

#115 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 7:04 am

RSMC Tokyo hold Sepat at T7.0 at 1200.

#116 Postby **windstorm99** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 7:38 am

Chacor · #117 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 7:41 am

Eye has cooled. JTWC fix weaker:

658
TPPN10 PGTW 161215

A. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (SEPAT)

B. 16/1130Z

C. 18.6N/5

D. 125.7E/5

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/7.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS (16/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W RING YIELDS DT
OF 6.5, AFTER 0.5 WAS ADDED FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND
PT EACH EQUAL AN UNREP 7.0. DBO DT.

TORREY

Chacor · #118 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 7:51 am

TY 0708 (SEPAT)
Issued at 12:00 UTC, 16 August 2007
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0708 SEPAT (0708)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 18.7N 125.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 21.8N 123.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 181200UTC 24.7N 120.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 191200UTC 26.0N 117.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT

#119 Postby **btangy** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:02 am

Looks like a eyewall replacement cycle is taking place. Could be reason for decrease in short term intensity:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... E.63pc.jpg

wxmann_91 · #120 Postby **wxmann_91** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:03 am

Now undergoing an ERC. Not sure if it will complete by landfall, but it may.

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