Tropical Depression SEPAT: Discussions, Analysis and Image

[milankovitch]

Now undergoing an ERC. Not sure if it will complete by landfall, but it may.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_08.html

This ends 5hrs ago. You can see the outer eyewall beginning to solidify and the moat beginning to form. With about 24hrs to landfall it's hard to say if the EWRC would complete or not. My opinion would be that given the size of the outer eye 24hrs will not be enough time for the EWRC to complete and the new eyewall to shrink down. Result... at landfall we'll see a big 60-80mi wide ragged eye with a very expansive but weaker windfield.

Not an official forecast!

[cyclonic chronic]

this is a monster! too bad there is no recon for it. this might be one of the strongest typhoons in the past 50 yrs. a close second to tip? maybe?

[bob rulz]

this is a monster! too bad there is no recon for it. this might be one of the strongest typhoons in the past 50 yrs. a close second to tip? maybe?

I wouldn't say that. That's probably pushing it. It's definitely very powerful.

[WindRunner]

this is a monster! too bad there is no recon for it. this might be one of the strongest typhoons in the past 50 yrs. a close second to tip? maybe?

No, there are several dozen cyclones since Tip that have been stronger than this . . . we had two or three (not all WPAC storms) last year . . .

[HURAKAN]

this is a monster! too bad there is no recon for it. this might be one of the strongest typhoons in the past 50 yrs. a close second to tip? maybe?

No offence intended and I don't know how long you have been tracking typhoons but these monsters are very common every year. That's why in previous posts I stated "the WPAC never disappoints." Atlantic's 2005 season is quite common in the WPAC.

[wxmann_91]

Here are all the typhoons either as strong or stronger than Sepat (either measured or estimated by the JMA):

LINK

[cyclonic chronic]

this is a monster! too bad there is no recon for it. this might be one of the strongest typhoons in the past 50 yrs. a close second to tip? maybe?

No offence intended and I don't know how long you have been tracking typhoons but these monsters are very common every year. That's why in previous posts I stated "the WPAC never disappoints." Atlantic's 2005 season is quite common in the WPAC.

no offence taken. ive only recently started to study wpac systems. for obvious reasons most of my study has been the atl. and epac. one of my main questions is, tropical waves seem to form alot of the atl. TC's. yet what do the wpac systems form from? monsoon troughs? cant find alot on the subject. thanx

[RL3AO]

There hasn't been a sub 910mb system in 9 years. So for all we know this could be a 890mb storm, but the JMA doesn't seem to want to go below 910.

[wxmann_91]

this is a monster! too bad there is no recon for it. this might be one of the strongest typhoons in the past 50 yrs. a close second to tip? maybe?

No offence intended and I don't know how long you have been tracking typhoons but these monsters are very common every year. That's why in previous posts I stated "the WPAC never disappoints." Atlantic's 2005 season is quite common in the WPAC.

no offence taken. ive only recently started to study wpac systems. for obvious reasons most of my study has been the atl. and epac. one of my main questions is, tropical waves seem to form alot of the atl. TC's. yet what do the wpac systems form from? monsoon troughs? cant find alot on the subject. thanx

The usual... old TUTT's, monsoonal troughs, and monsoonal gyres.

I just googled up these: (the second one requires a subscription though)
Lander, M.A., 1994. Description of a Monsoon Gyre and Its Effects on the Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific during August 1991.
Chen, T., 2004. Role of the Monsoon Gyre in the Interannual Variation of Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Western North Pacific.

[cyclonic chronic]

"The usual... old TUTT's, monsoonal troughs, and monsoonal gyres.

I just googled up these: (the second one requires a subscription though)
Lander, M.A., 1994. Description of a Monsoon Gyre and Its Effects on the Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific during August 1991.
Chen, T., 2004. Role of the Monsoon Gyre in the Interannual Variation of Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Western North Pacific."

thanx got some good reading now

[wxmann_91]

"The usual... old TUTT's, monsoonal troughs, and monsoonal gyres.

I just googled up these: (the second one requires a subscription though)
Lander, M.A., 1994. Description of a Monsoon Gyre and Its Effects on the Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific during August 1991.
Chen, T., 2004. Role of the Monsoon Gyre in the Interannual Variation of Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Western North Pacific."

thanx got some good reading now

No problem.

Note that most do actually form out of monsoonal troughs, only few form out of the other two. But I believe (not 100% sure about this), that the two storms before SEPAT, WUTIP and PABUK, formed out of a monsoonal gyre.

[HURAKAN]

Double eye-wall???

[btangy]

Inner eyewall has totally collapsed:

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc_thumbs/2 ... 124.8E.jpg

That's one huge eye!

[wxmann_91]

Almost done... IR images almost looks like Katrina right before she cleared her eye, except much more circular storm shape.

BUT, only 18 hr stands b/t right now and landfall, and let's not forget the effects of land interaction (some dry air entrainment is already taking place with the warmer cloud tops).

[whereverwx]

This is when the storm was near peak intensity. I really like these detailed images from RAMMB.

[wxmann_91]

calamity, have you been saving images from SSD?

[whereverwx]

calamity, have you been saving images from SSD?

No, I have not. I haven't saved any images of the recent storms, either, including Dean.

[Ptarmigan]

this is a monster! too bad there is no recon for it. this might be one of the strongest typhoons in the past 50 yrs. a close second to tip? maybe?

It's probably very strong, but not the strongest. My guess would be around 885 to 895 mb with winds of 160 to 165 mph.

[Ptarmigan]

No offence intended and I don't know how long you have been tracking typhoons but these monsters are very common every year. That's why in previous posts I stated "the WPAC never disappoints." Atlantic's 2005 season is quite common in the WPAC.

Atlantic 2005 is a typical season in the West Pacific, 28 storms form on average.

[wxmann_91]

calamity, have you been saving images from SSD?

No, I have not. I haven't saved any images of the recent storms, either, including Dean.

I've got the sat images covered.

BTW, convection continues to weaken. Barring some DMAX magic (which really becomes negligible for a storm of Sepat's depth), I'm not sure it will make landfall in Taiwan as a Cat 4-5.