Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[cycloneye]

It seems that in this 12:00z run,the models are at the end more WNW.

[skysummit]

Has anyone seen this:

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC MON AUG 13 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042007) 20070813 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070813 1200 070814 0000 070814 1200 070815 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 30.7W 13.0N 33.4W 13.8N 36.7W 14.6N 40.5W
BAMD 12.1N 30.7W 12.4N 34.2W 12.7N 37.8W 12.9N 41.4W
BAMM 12.1N 30.7W 12.9N 33.9W 13.6N 37.6W 14.2N 41.5W
LBAR 12.1N 30.7W 12.1N 34.2W 12.3N 38.4W 12.6N 42.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070815 1200 070816 1200 070817 1200 070818 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 45.1W 17.0N 55.4W 17.9N 65.5W 17.1N 73.8W
BAMD 13.2N 45.1W 14.7N 52.8W 16.6N 59.5W 18.8N 66.3W
BAMM 14.8N 46.0W 15.8N 55.8W 15.7N 64.6W 14.7N 71.2W
LBAR 13.0N 47.2W 13.5N 55.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 62KTS 65KTS 65KTS
DSHP 52KTS 62KTS 65KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 30.7W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 27.1W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 24.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

That was posted at prior page.

[punkyg]

Any one notice that Former 90L/td4 is larger. i'm not really gonna call it td4 until its on the nhc site.

[Rainband]

Plenty of time to watch ,I am sure the models will be all over the place. The point is we should be ready June 1.

[canegrl04]

Any one notice that Former 90L/td4 is larger. i'm not really gonna call it td4 until its on the nhc site.

I noticed when I watched the last tropical update on TWC .They said Steve Lyons was "very concerned" about this thing

[punkyg]

Any one notice that Former 90L/td4 is larger. i'm not really gonna call it td4 until its on the nhc site.

I noticed when I watched the last tropical update on TWC .They said Steve Lyons was "very concerned" about this thing

Really? can you tell me what he said, if you can remember.

[CourierPR]

Luis, not to wish anything bad for Puerto Rico, but I think we may see this system affect the Leewards and PR and skirt north of DR into the Southeast Bahamas.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Static image of TD#4 8/13 12Z early cycle and 6Z late cycle models:

[Aquawind]

Floater is up..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

[WmE]

Is that vis. floater pic TD4? Looks damn good.

[MiamiensisWx]

It looks like our future TD 4 (possibly Dean) is struggling with some mid-level dry air. Convection is starting to wane, and the LLC looks slightly more exposed within the most recent 30 minutes. Additionally, note the increasingly "ragged" presentation. Short-term organization may be hampered by this trend.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

This system could be another example of dry air problems when a system approaches the Antilles. Additionally, it is still suffering from stiff low to mid-level easterly shear. I suspect substantial organization will occur to the west of 40 or 45W. I see some classic capping inversion problems (inhibiting convection) and outflow boundaries, IMO. It looks much worse on NRL visibles.

[NDG]

Floater is up..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

Wrong system on floater, LOL

[Chacor]

This is your TD...

[canegrl04]

Any one notice that Former 90L/td4 is larger. i'm not really gonna call it td4 until its on the nhc site.

I noticed when I watched the last tropical update on TWC .They said Steve Lyons was "very concerned" about this thing

Really? can you tell me what he said, if you can remember.

They didn't go into much detail.Just said he was very concerned,they believe it will turn into TD today,and that they are keeping an eye on it as the Islands are in it's path

[Javlin]

Is that vis. floater pic TD4? Looks damn good.

Still looks to be under the influence of some E shear?The clouds out front about 5* look not to be under that influence.Still thinking slow deveiopment overall.

[MiamiensisWx]

OT: the NRL site is running!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

YES!!!

[Aquawind]

Floater is up..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

Wrong system on floater, LOL

Doh.. The visible loop is reality..

[storms in NC]

Look like he is having trouble again. He is about to lose it again.JIMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Latest visible frame

It's encountering some huge problems. The LLC could become exposed within another hour. Yesterday, convective activity was maintained close to the low-level circulation. There was an evident mid-level circulation, too. Currently, the mid-level spin is becoming less defined, and convection is moving away from the LLC. This trend occurs as the TPC could upgrade to a TD at 11 a.m. EDT - that's not a good sign for the immediate development prospects.