INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[Stormcenter]

Derek and AFM I look at cloud track sometimes as a signal to movement and they seem to be going NNW towards TX/LA line is that wrong?Sure 12-20hrs from now they might be going NW or WNW but is that a decent assumption for motion maybe in the next 12hrs?Kevin

I'd be surprised if it would go as far East as LA/TX border, but, it wouldn't be shocking. I'm calling around Galveston right now....a Cat. 1 hurricane. It won't be a horrible event, but, I see a signifcant system moving in...and I don't particularly see it moving very fast all the way into the Coast, which could spell a great deal of rain for SW and SCentral LA, IMO. We'll see....I'm only watching clouds.

If it goes in that far north (Upper TX coast)the rain squalls could easily extend toward SE La.

[Stormcenter]

Derek and AFM I look at cloud track sometimes as a signal to movement and they seem to be going NNW towards TX/LA line is that wrong?Sure 12-20hrs from now they might be going NW or WNW but is that a decent assumption for motion maybe in the next 12hrs?Kevin

I'd be surprised if it would go as far East as LA/TX border, but, it wouldn't be shocking. I'm calling around Galveston right now....a Cat. 1 hurricane. It won't be a horrible event, but, I see a signifcant system moving in...and I don't particularly see it moving very fast all the way into the Coast, which could spell a great deal of rain for SW and SCentral LA, IMO. We'll see....I'm only watching clouds.

I'm thinking a fast-mover between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, perhaps slipping north late...

A less likely scenario in my opinion at the moment.

[jasons2k]

I don't know about you guys, but if I worked at the NHC and had the choice between being known forever as...

1) The idiiot who gave a name to an open wave or
2) The idiot who didn't upgrade an obvious TD that became a stong TS overnight and surprised coastal folks

...I would choose 1) every day. Maybe it's just me.

Quote of the day LOL

[ROCK]

This is just a little observation -

On this evening's radar, the presentation of the seabreeze is the boldest/thickest I have ever seen it. I've never seen it look like this, eerily strange.

Also, some of the dying showers & mid-level moisture being picked-up moving from LA are moving really fast to the SW...

that almost looks like outflow boundaries to me.....but yeah very strange indeed.....

[k4sdi]

Just a note, The Weather Channel already has Jeff Morrow in Port Aransas.

My wife says that area is safe unless Jim heads down there!

[wxman57]

cannot issue warnings if there is no TC

Hi, all, thought I'd chime in before dinner. I've been looking at this thing since 5am. Derek, your quote above is probably one of the best reasons for the NHC to be lenient and upgrade it to a TD. I do think it has a much better-defined LLC than Grace ever did. What's lacking, as AFM said, is any significant effects over the lease areas. I was surprised the NHC didn't upgrade it at 4pm.

The NHC's primary job is to warn the public of potential threats from tropical cyclones. Sometimes, they may have to "fudge it" a little so that they can accomplish their mission. I've seen it discussed on this thread before that the NHC would upgrade something in the Gulf or near the southeast U.S. coast that they'd never upgrade by Africa or in the open Atlantic. That's because there is a possible threat to the public. In this case, it seems fairly obvious that this will very likely become at least a minimal TS before moving ashore into the lower to mid TX coast Thursday morning. If the NHC waits until 4am to call it a TD, then that's only about 24 hours lead time for any preparations. Why not just call it a TD this afternoon (or this evening, now) a little early to give the public a little extra time to do whatever they have to do? I have great respect for the NHC forecasters, they have a tough job. Must have been a long discussion about what to do this afternoon. But I don't think they'll wait to upgrade it tomorrow morning.

Oh, and my gut feeling says north of Corpus Christi. The LLC will form beneath the ball of convection near 24.8N/90W not out in the open where it was initialized at 00z. Probably a 40-45 mph TS (in small pockets). Nothing too significant.

Doesn't really matter to me much, except that we put out the word to our clients early last Friday about potential development Mon/Tue in the SW Gulf and one client called in to complain that we were "alarmists", saying the NHC was forecasting "no development", as was one private wx company that I won't name here which just repackages NHC advisories. I explained that the NHC was only talking about potential development through Saturday, not through the following week. So it better develop! Come on, Erin! Ok, I'll take a TD 5, if nothing else!

[HeeBGBz]

Just a note, The Weather Channel already has Jeff Morrow in Port Aransas.

My wife says that area is safe unless Jim heads down there!

Jim appears to be hanging with Flossie in Hawaii. Not a bad gig.

[KatDaddy]

Excellent explanation and discussion as always Wxman57.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Derek and AFM I look at cloud track sometimes as a signal to movement and they seem to be going NNW towards TX/LA line is that wrong?Sure 12-20hrs from now they might be going NW or WNW but is that a decent assumption for motion maybe in the next 12hrs?Kevin

I'd be surprised if it would go as far East as LA/TX border, but, it wouldn't be shocking. I'm calling around Galveston right now....a Cat. 1 hurricane. It won't be a horrible event, but, I see a signifcant system moving in...and I don't particularly see it moving very fast all the way into the Coast, which could spell a great deal of rain for SW and SCentral LA, IMO. We'll see....I'm only watching clouds.

If it goes in that far north (Upper TX coast)the rain squalls could easily extend toward SE La.

I agree, but, the rain would be nice and since the drainage system in New Orleans has recently been completely flushed for this season, we can handle the rain. It would be nice to not have to have my sprinklers on for two to three hours every evening. We'll see. I just see the system heading W/NW and then turning more N/NW just before landfall....

[RL3AO]

I agree with every word you just said Wxman.

[Javlin]

Derek and AFM I look at cloud track sometimes as a signal to movement and they seem to be going NNW towards TX/LA line is that wrong?Sure 12-20hrs from now they might be going NW or WNW but is that a decent assumption for motion maybe in the next 12hrs?Kevin

I'd be surprised if it would go as far East as LA/TX border, but, it wouldn't be shocking. I'm calling around Galveston right now....a Cat. 1 hurricane. It won't be a horrible event, but, I see a signifcant system moving in...and I don't particularly see it moving very fast all the way into the Coast, which could spell a great deal of rain for SW and SCentral LA, IMO. We'll see....I'm only watching clouds.

If it goes in that far north (Upper TX coast)the rain squalls could easily extend toward SE La.

Well it was just a thought I guess it would really have to stack and develop to feel the effects of the upper ATM.Kevin

[ROCK]

thanks for chiming in Wx57 I know you have a hard road ahead with Erin and Dean....hang in there....

[jasons2k]

Derek and AFM I look at cloud track sometimes as a signal to movement and they seem to be going NNW towards TX/LA line is that wrong?Sure 12-20hrs from now they might be going NW or WNW but is that a decent assumption for motion maybe in the next 12hrs?Kevin

I'd be surprised if it would go as far East as LA/TX border, but, it wouldn't be shocking. I'm calling around Galveston right now....a Cat. 1 hurricane. It won't be a horrible event, but, I see a signifcant system moving in...and I don't particularly see it moving very fast all the way into the Coast, which could spell a great deal of rain for SW and SCentral LA, IMO. We'll see....I'm only watching clouds.

Sean, you scare me. I'll never forget you were the first to call LC for Rita and everyone, including me, including all the pro mets, thought you were crazy at the time.

[srainhoutx]

cannot issue warnings if there is no TC

Hi, all, thought I'd chime in before dinner. I've been looking at this thing since 5am. Derek, your quote above is probably one of the best reasons for the NHC to be lenient and upgrade it to a TD. I do think it has a much better-defined LLC than Grace ever did. What's lacking, as AFM said, is any significant effects over the lease areas. I was surprised the NHC didn't upgrade it at 4pm.

The NHC's primary job is to warn the public of potential threats from tropical cyclones. Sometimes, they may have to "fudge it" a little so that they can accomplish their mission. I've seen it discussed on this thread before that the NHC would upgrade something in the Gulf or near the southeast U.S. coast that they'd never upgrade by Africa or in the open Atlantic. That's because there is a possible threat to the public. In this case, it seems fairly obvious that this will very likely become at least a minimal TS before moving ashore into the lower to mid TX coast Thursday morning. If the NHC waits until 4am to call it a TD, then that's only about 24 hours lead time for any preparations. Why not just call it a TD this afternoon (or this evening, now) a little early to give the public a little extra time to do whatever they have to do? I have great respect for the NHC forecasters, they have a tough job. Must have been a long discussion about what to do this afternoon. But I don't think they'll wait to upgrade it tomorrow morning.

Oh, and my gut feeling says north of Corpus Christi. The LLC will form beneath the ball of convection near 24.8N/90W not out in the open where it was initialized at 00z. Probably a 40-45 mph TS (in small pockets). Nothing too significant.

Doesn't really matter to me much, except that we put out the word to our clients early last Friday about potential development Mon/Tue in the SW Gulf and one client called in to complain that we were "alarmists", saying the NHC was forecasting "no development", as was one private wx company that I won't name here which just repackages NHC advisories. I explained that the NHC was only talking about potential development through Saturday, not through the following week. So it better develop! Come on, Erin! Ok, I'll take a TD 5, if nothing else!

Great Post wxman57. Tough day at the office? I agree with an advisory classifing this shortly. 24 hours is not enough time for the public to react.

[btangy]

Here's an interesting idea for discussion:

Should the NHC issue watches for storms that have not been classified as a depression or storm but are clearly on their way to becoming one? This is particularly pertinent for AL91.

IMO, given that the strict definition of a TS watch is that tropical storm conditions may be expected within 36 hours, I feel the NHC does not have to wait for TD5 to officially be announced before issuing watches (warnings, I think they should still hold off on). As an example, consider tornado watches issued by the SPC or blizzard watches for an impending nor'easter. SPC doesn't wait for the first tornado to touch down before issuing a watch and WFOs don't issue blizzard watches once the first snowflakes start falling. If tropical cyclogenesis is clearly occurring as it is now, then I feel the NHC is warranted and perhaps even responsible given their mission statement to issue watches for portions of the coastline that they feel may be under the gun in under 36 hours.

[tailgater]

latest from buoy 42001
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001
buoy 42002
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002
Note the pressure is lower at 42002 and the winds are stronger. Doesn't seem to be getting organized very quickly to me.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Derek and AFM I look at cloud track sometimes as a signal to movement and they seem to be going NNW towards TX/LA line is that wrong?Sure 12-20hrs from now they might be going NW or WNW but is that a decent assumption for motion maybe in the next 12hrs?Kevin

I'd be surprised if it would go as far East as LA/TX border, but, it wouldn't be shocking. I'm calling around Galveston right now....a Cat. 1 hurricane. It won't be a horrible event, but, I see a signifcant system moving in...and I don't particularly see it moving very fast all the way into the Coast, which could spell a great deal of rain for SW and SCentral LA, IMO. We'll see....I'm only watching clouds.

Sean, you scare me. I'll never forget you were the first to call LC for Rita and everyone, including me, including all the pro mets, thought you were crazy at the time.

LOL...and I was calling that from Illinois. That doesn't mean I'm right this time, jschitlz. But, I have a pretty good sense of smell once a system is in the GOM. We'll see....

[wx247]

Dr. Steve Lyons just said "nothing is developing" in the Gulf, citing 13 mph winds near the "core". I don't know about him sometimes.

[miamicanes177]

Great Post wxman57. Tough day at the office? I agree with an advisory classifing this shortly. 24 hours is not enough time for the public to react.

This was called disturbance invest 91L on the 00Z models. Therefore, I put the chances of this being called tropical depression 5 by 10pm tonight at less than 1%

[Extremeweatherguy]

well of course winds are light near the "core". lol. They did find 30-36mph surface winds to the north of the center though (according to recon), so they have definitely seen higher than 13mph winds!