INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

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Chacor
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INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#1 Postby Chacor » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:02 am

Image
Last edited by Chacor on Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:05 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM

#2 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:04 am

you beat me to posting this lol
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM

#3 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:06 am

Wow already....I must say I'm a little surprised.
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#4 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:07 am

^Ditto....Im shocked they made it an invest this early....it does have potential though.
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#5 Postby Chacor » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:07 am

Image
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#6 Postby BreinLa » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:09 am

I knew that was gonna happen when I looked at it this morning, sheeeesh, hopefully it just goes poof
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM

#7 Postby vacanechaser » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:10 am

thanx to the favorable mjo on its way...

Image


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM

#8 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:11 am

as some wrestling guy use to say "Business is about to pick up!!!" don't like that it is already so close to that warm GOM current

so we have a probable Trop Storm still 7 or 8 days out that everyone will be confused with this invest...gotta love it
Last edited by CronkPSU on Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#9 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:12 am

While this doesn't have the scary potential of TD4/Dean, this definitely has development potential, although being closer to land would reduce its ultimate potential.
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#10 Postby Chacor » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:12 am

Code: Select all

473
WHXX01 KWBC 131410
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1410 UTC MON AUG 13 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20070813 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070813  1200   070814  0000   070814  1200   070815  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.8N  85.8W   22.5N  88.1W   23.2N  90.7W   23.7N  92.9W
BAMD    21.8N  85.8W   22.8N  88.1W   23.8N  90.7W   24.8N  93.2W
BAMM    21.8N  85.8W   22.7N  88.1W   23.6N  90.7W   24.5N  93.2W
LBAR    21.8N  85.8W   22.7N  88.1W   23.7N  90.8W   24.7N  93.7W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          45KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070815  1200   070816  1200   070817  1200   070818  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.4N  95.5W   25.9N  99.6W   27.1N 103.0W   28.4N 106.1W
BAMD    25.7N  95.6W   28.0N  99.9W   30.2N 102.2W   32.0N 102.4W
BAMM    25.3N  95.8W   27.4N 100.1W   29.1N 103.1W   30.5N 105.0W
LBAR    25.7N  96.6W   28.4N 101.1W   30.5N 102.6W   31.7N 102.3W
SHIP        53KTS          63KTS          72KTS          75KTS
DSHP        53KTS          32KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  21.8N LONCUR =  85.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  20.6N LONM12 =  83.8W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  18.9N LONM24 =  81.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  130NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:14 am

Image
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM - 12z models posted

#12 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:15 am

Image
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM - 12z models posted

#13 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:15 am

Former Penn State wrestler opines this doesn't have time to become more than a strong tropical storm, landfall just South of Brownsville.
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Re:

#14 Postby vacanechaser » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:15 am

Chacor wrote:

Code: Select all

473
WHXX01 KWBC 131410
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1410 UTC MON AUG 13 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20070813 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070813  1200   070814  0000   070814  1200   070815  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.8N  85.8W   22.5N  88.1W   23.2N  90.7W   23.7N  92.9W
BAMD    21.8N  85.8W   22.8N  88.1W   23.8N  90.7W   24.8N  93.2W
BAMM    21.8N  85.8W   22.7N  88.1W   23.6N  90.7W   24.5N  93.2W
LBAR    21.8N  85.8W   22.7N  88.1W   23.7N  90.8W   24.7N  93.7W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          45KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070815  1200   070816  1200   070817  1200   070818  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.4N  95.5W   25.9N  99.6W   27.1N 103.0W   28.4N 106.1W
BAMD    25.7N  95.6W   28.0N  99.9W   30.2N 102.2W   32.0N 102.4W
BAMM    25.3N  95.8W   27.4N 100.1W   29.1N 103.1W   30.5N 105.0W
LBAR    25.7N  96.6W   28.4N 101.1W   30.5N 102.6W   31.7N 102.3W
SHIP        53KTS          63KTS          72KTS          75KTS
DSHP        53KTS          32KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  21.8N LONCUR =  85.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  20.6N LONM12 =  83.8W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  18.9N LONM24 =  81.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  130NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


interesting... right where the gfs has had 90L/t.d. 4 going the past few runs...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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#15 Postby USTropics » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:17 am

Great sat loop of 91L and 90L/TD4
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
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Re:

#16 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:19 am

CrazyC83 wrote:While this doesn't have the scary potential of TD4/Dean, this definitely has development potential, although being closer to land would reduce its ultimate potential.


If it's August and in the GOM then it is has scary potential in my opinion.
I would much more concerned about this than something that is many days away from making it to the GOM....if ever.
Last edited by Stormcenter on Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#17 Postby jasons2k » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:20 am

I am surprised as well this came-up this quickly, but I imagine b/c of its proximity to land. If continues to clip along, then yes, it only has ~48 hours and won't have time to do too much, hopefully. Heat content is explosive in that region.
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM - 12z models posted

#18 Postby KatDaddy » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:20 am

Wow. SHIPS takes it to 60KTS in 48hrs.
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM - 12z models posted

#19 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:22 am

WOW, i think this will develop xeasily with the heat content in the GOM.
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM - 12z models posted

#20 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:23 am

if this has two days over water from now, how are the conditions out a head of this

any promets in the house
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