Tropical Storm ERIN: Advisories Only

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: Tropical Storm ERIN: Advisories Only

#21 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:25 am

TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE LOCAL STATEMENT
TXZ235>237-161215-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
115 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

...TROPICAL STORM ERIN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST WITH A LANDFALL IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA EXPECTED THIS MORNING...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM ERIN HAS SLOWED AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH.


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

BRAZORIA...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN LUIS PASS
TO BROWNSVILLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6PM ON THURSDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES...257 KM...SOUTH OF PALACIOS TEXAS.

ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO ERIN MAKING
LANDFALL LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A NOAA BUOY NORTH OF THE CENTER
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED IN A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND KEEP
INFORMED ON THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN. THE MAIN THREAT TO
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL BE HEAVY RAINS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL THURSDAY MORNING TO
AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF SAN LUIS
PASS AND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL NORTH OF SAN LUIS PASS. SOME MINOR
BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE.

LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIMES EXPECTED WATER MAX

MORGANS POINT...
THU 5:40 PM. 2.4 FEET.
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE...
THU 1:24 PM. 2.8 FEET.
EAGLE POINT...
THU 11:13 AM. 2.9 FEET.
PORT BOLIVAR...
THU 7:33 AM. 3.2 FEET.
THU 7:49 PM. 2.7 FEET.
GALVESTON CHANNEL...
THU 7:19 AM. 3.2 FEET.
THU 7:35 PM. 2.7 FEET.
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
THU 6:13 AM. 3.8 FEET.
THU 6:29 PM. 3.2 FEET.
JAMAICA BEACH...
THU 9:57 AM. 3.4 FEET.
THU 10:13 PM. 2.3 FEET.
SAN LUIS PASS...
THU 7:10 AM. 3.0 FEET.
THU 7:26 PM. 2.5 FEET.
FREEPORT...
THU 6:35 AM. 4.1 FEET.
THU 6:51 PM. 3.5 FEET.
PORT O CONNOR...
THU 10:04 AM. 2.8 FEET.
THU 8:46 PM. 2.4 FEET.

NOTE: TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM MEAN LOWER LOW WATER

...WINDS...
IN THE VICINITY OF MATAGORDA BAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SQUALLS.
ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 MPH EXCEPT HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

...RAINFALL...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 430 AM CDT.
0 likes   

Coredesat

#22 Postby Coredesat » Thu Aug 16, 2007 3:55 am

WTNT45 KNHC 160852
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
500 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERIN
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. NOAA BUOY 42019
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 32 KT AND VELOCITY DATA FROM
THE CORPUS CHRISTI WSR88D INDICATE WINDS IN THE 35 KT RANGE ABOVE
THE SURFACE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
UNCHANGED AT 35 KT. WHILE THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION ARGUES
AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...ERIN STILL HAS 6-12 MORE HOURS
OVER WATER SO SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

ERIN HAS BEEN WOBBLING A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT A LONGER
TERM MOTION YIELDS AND INITIAL ESTIMATE OF 300/10. A CONTINUATION
OF THIS BASIC MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH THE TRACK CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 27.3N 96.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 28.0N 98.1W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 17/0600Z 28.8N 99.9W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/1800Z 29.5N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

-----------------

WTNT35 KNHC 160852
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
400 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007
...ERIN NEARING THE COAST OF TEXAS AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM SAN LUIS PASS SOUTHWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 180
MILES...290 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

ERIN HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO ERIN MAKING
LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND...ERIN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A NOAA BUOY NORTH OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 45 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED IN A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...27.3 N...96.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#23 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 16, 2007 6:55 am

...Erin making landfall on the Texas coast near Lamar and weakens to
a tropical depression...

At 700 am CDT...1200z...the Tropical Storm Warning for the Texas
coast has been discontinued.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 700 am CDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Depression Erin is
located near latitude 28.0 north...longitude 97.2 west...near Lamar
Texas or about 25 miles...40 km...northeast of Corpus Christi.


The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19
km/hr. This motion is expected to continue...bringing the center
farther inland today.


Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 35 mph...55 km/hr...with
higher gusts. The depression should continue to weaken as it moves
over land today.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

Total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected across much
of central and southern Texas...with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 10 inches.


Isolated tornadoes are possible near the middle Texas Gulf Coast
today.

Repeating the 700 am CDT position...28.0 N...97.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35
mph. Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1000 am CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37088
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Tropical Storm ERIN: Advisories Only

#24 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 16, 2007 9:35 am

FINAL ADVISORY

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

...ERIN EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS...

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 85 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. ON THIS
TRACK ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...28.5 N...97.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 59 guests