Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[srainhoutx]

From HGX WFO on major flooding from TD Erin. Lot of ifo, but thought that some folks would like to know. All major Media is Live at this time covering event.

FLOOD WARNING
TXC201-170532-
1232 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

* HUNTING BAYOU AT LOOP 610
* LATEST STAGE: 25.6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
* FLOOD STAGE: 36.1 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE BAYOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

$$

PERSONS ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE RIVER UNTIL WATER LEVELS RECEDE.

MOTORISTS SHOULD AVOID ANY WATER COVERED ROADS AND FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.


STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS SOURCES FOR FURTHER UPDATES.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WARNING
TXC039-201-170512-
1212 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

* CLEAR CREEK AT TELEPHONE ROAD
* LATEST STAGE: 39.0 FEET THIS MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE: 44.7 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

$$


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WARNING
TXC167-201-170512-
1212 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

* TURKEY CREEK AT DIXIE FARM ROAD
* LATEST STAGE: 24.1FEET THIS MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE: 29.1 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

$$


PERSONS ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE RIVER UNTIL WATER LEVELS RECEDE.

MOTORISTS SHOULD AVOID ANY WATER COVERED ROADS AND FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS SOURCES FOR FURTHER UPDATES.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1129 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...

SAN BERNARD RIVER AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN TEXAS...AUSTIN...
BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...WHARTON


TROPICAL STORM ERIN MADE LANDFALL THIS MORNING PRODUCING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE SAN BERNARD WATERSHED.

PERSONS ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE RIVER UNTIL WATER LEVELS RECEDE.

MOTORISTS SHOULD AVOID ANY WATER COVERED ROADS AND FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.

LIVESTOCK AND EQUIPMENT SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE FLOOD PLAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS SOURCES FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

TXC015-157-481-170429-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FL.W.0062.070817T2100Z-070820T1200Z/
/EBBT2.1.ER.070817T2100Z.070818T1800Z.070820T0000Z.UU/
1129 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE SAN BERNARD RIVER NEAR EAST BERNARD.
* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY MORNING ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 11 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED RISE OUT OF BANKS THIS AFTERNOON AND ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 17.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE GAGE WITH
MINOR ROADS ALONG THE RIVER INUNDATED. BACKWATER FLOODING UP BRITT BRANCH AND
BRATCHER SLOUGH BEGINS.

$$


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1129 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...

SAN BERNARD RIVER AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN TEXAS...AUSTIN...
BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...WHARTON


TROPICAL STORM ERIN MADE LANDFALL THIS MORNING PRODUCING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE SAN BERNARD WATERSHED.

PERSONS ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE RIVER UNTIL WATER LEVELS RECEDE.

MOTORISTS SHOULD AVOID ANY WATER COVERED ROADS AND FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.

LIVESTOCK AND EQUIPMENT SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE FLOOD PLAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS SOURCES FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

TXC039-157-481-170428-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FL.W.0063.070817T1148Z-000000T0000Z/
/BOLT2.1.ER.070817T1148Z.070821T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1129 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE SAN BERNARD RIVER NEAR BOLING.
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE OUT OF BANKS TONIGHT AND ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING .
* AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS UPSTREAM FROM GAGE. MINOR
BACKWATER FLOODING UP PEACH CREEK IN WHARTON COUNTY THREATENS LOWLYING AREAS.

$$


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1129 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...

SAN BERNARD RIVER AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN TEXAS...AUSTIN...
BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...WHARTON


TROPICAL STORM ERIN MADE LANDFALL THIS MORNING PRODUCING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE SAN BERNARD WATERSHED.

PERSONS ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE RIVER UNTIL WATER LEVELS RECEDE.

MOTORISTS SHOULD AVOID ANY WATER COVERED ROADS AND FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.

LIVESTOCK AND EQUIPMENT SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE FLOOD PLAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS SOURCES FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

TXC039-170428-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FL.W.0064.070817T1500Z-070818T0815Z/
/SWYT2.1.ER.070817T1500Z.070817T1800Z.070817T2015Z.NO/
1129 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE SAN BERNARD RIVER NEAR SWEENY.
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 6 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 16.0 FEET...AT LEVELS NEAR 16 FEET MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. WATER IS
OVER THE MID LEVEL WALKWAY AT THE PHILLIPS TERMINAL NEAR SWEENY AND TUGS CAN
NOT PUSH BARGES UPSTREAM AND ARE UNABLE TO DOCK.

[jabman98]

Lost power here (Heights) about 11:30 - just came back about ten minutes ago. So far about five inches of rain, but at least the streets aren't flooding here. More to come, it looks like.

[whereverwx]

This was Erin at landfall:



And this is Erin now:

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

000
WTNT35 KWNH 170254
TCPAT5

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 10 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052007
10 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

...ERIN CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD AND BRINGS MORE HEAVY
RAIN TO TEXAS...

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.1 WEST OR
ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...SOUTH OF HONDO TEXAS.

HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPIRAL MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CENTER AND RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS WEST TEXAS. BOTH THE
HOUSTON AND SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS HAVE SEEN FLOODING RAINS FROM
THIS SYSTEM WITH MANY REPORTS OF RESCUES IN THE SAN ANTONIO AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH...20 TO 30
KM/HR...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 1006 MB...29.71
INCHES AND IS SLOWLY FILLING.

FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIN CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10
MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN WEST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 1000 PM
EDT THURSDAY

...TEXAS...

HOUSTON METRO AREA

LOCKWOOD (HUNTING BAYOU) 9.61
SENS RD 9.25
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU @8TH ST8.31
SIMS BAYOU @MARTIN LUTHER KING7.52
SOUTH MCGREGOR WAY 7.05
HOUSTON INT AIRPORT2.53

SAN ANTONIO/STINSON MUNI ARPT8.47
KELLY AFB/SAN ANTONIO7.14
6 WSW BOERNE5.84
PALACIOS4.98
HONDO4.58
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT4.35



REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT THURSDAY POSITION...29.1 NORTH...AND
99.1 WEST...NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 4 AM CDT FRIDAY. REFER
TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING
THIS SYSTEM.

KOCIN

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 29.1N 99.1W
12HR VT 17/1200Z 30.1N 100.9W
24HR VT 18/0000Z 31.3N 101.7W


$$

[AndrewSmith2500]

I am just wondering not to be rude, what hurricane names are likely to be retired this year between Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dean and Erin? I hope none of them.

[Chacor]

I am just wondering not to be rude, what hurricane names are likely to be retired this year between Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dean and Erin? I hope none of them.

Before any wishcasters jump in let me say it is far too early to tell.

[CrazyC83]

I am just wondering not to be rude, what hurricane names are likely to be retired this year between Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dean and Erin? I hope none of them.

Before any wishcasters jump in let me say it is far too early to tell.

If any of them, Dean (depending on what it does from here on). The first three and Erin will probably be back in 2013.

[lrak]

Looks like this thing is intensifying over Odessa. My Grandma is fixin to get a lot of rain and humidity she's not used to TS that far West LOL

[HURAKAN]

Still a formidable system.



Impressive after more than 24 hrs after landfall. Rain continues to impact coastal areas.