Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
MiamiensisWx

Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#1 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:37 pm

Image
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Thu Aug 16, 2007 9:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3642
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Tropical Depression 5: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#2 Postby drezee » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:40 pm

ready to go:

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE...LOCATED 425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS

Image
Last edited by drezee on Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Duddy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:07 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC

Re: Tropical Depression #5: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#3 Postby Duddy » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:41 pm

They are forecasting it to go farther South than we are "forecasting".
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Tropical Depression #5: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#4 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:41 pm

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DID FIND A SMALL CIRCULATION
CENTER...BUT IT WAS NOT QUITE WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED TO WARRANT A
FORMAL VORTEX MESSAGE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH
SOME EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTION SOUTHWESTWARD. BASED ON THIS
TREND...I AM PRESUMING THE CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS TO THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A FAIRLY STRAIGHT WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER
THE CYCLONE...AND GIVEN THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...I EXPECT
SOME REFORMATION OR APPARENT NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS UNTIL THE CENTER BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED.

CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT...
BUT LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRESENT SHEARING PATTERN
WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES RAPIDLY OUT OF THE
WAY
. THE BROAD CIRCULATION...LIMITED CONVECTION...AND LIMITED
UPPER-OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH ARGUE FOR ONLY
MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5523
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Tropical Depression #5: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#5 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:43 pm

I know it doesnt have a CDO...thats why I put it in quotation marks. It only looks like it. It could eventually become the CDO, but it is not yet, as its not common in TD's.
0 likes   

User avatar
canetracker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 746
Age: 61
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2005 8:49 pm
Location: Suburbia New Orleans...Harahan, LA

Re: Tropical Depression #5: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#6 Postby canetracker » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:43 pm

Image
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: Tropical Depression #5: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#7 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:43 pm

Another round dot burst like that rain system that almost formed earlier in July but moved inland.

That burst shows some energy.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#8 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:44 pm

Good move, as the watches are needed more than anything.
0 likes   

jaxfladude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1246
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:36 pm
Location: Jacksonville, Fla

Re: Tropical Depression #5: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#9 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:46 pm

Thread name:
INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery
Thread started by:
Chacor

Replies
1012
Views
25368
Pages:
51
Now locked
That was all before it was called a TD#5 on Aug. 14th at 11pm edt....
Hate too see what will be the final numbers for this thread(s)(for TD#5/TS Erin)
0 likes   

User avatar
lrak
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1770
Age: 57
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:48 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, TX

Re: Tropical Depression #5: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#10 Postby lrak » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:47 pm

NORTHWEST ok didn't have to highlight it LOL :ggreen:

its coming to CC TX.
0 likes   

User avatar
stormchazer
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2458
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:00 pm
Location: Lakeland, Florida
Contact:

#11 Postby stormchazer » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:47 pm

The Western GOM could end up with a 2 for 1 special if models pan out on Dean. Hopefully that does not occur. I got family in Gulfport, MS.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Tropical Depression #5: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#12 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:48 pm

Image
0 likes   

jaxfladude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1246
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:36 pm
Location: Jacksonville, Fla

Re: Tropical Depression #5: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#13 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:48 pm

Prayers for Texas and ......rainfall amounts that is(in Mexico mudslides and the like)..... :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
lrak
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1770
Age: 57
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:48 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, TX

Re: Tropical Depression #5: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#14 Postby lrak » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:50 pm

looks like choppy surf conditions. Onshore and wet.
0 likes   

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6617
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Tropical Depression #5: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#15 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:51 pm

jaxfladude wrote:Prayers for Texas and ......rainfall amounts that is(in Mexico mudslides and the like)..... :eek:


I don't think it will that bad but you never know with these systems.
0 likes   

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6617
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Tropical Depression #5: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#16 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:53 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Image


I just don't see the center being that far west or north right now. Oh well who am I to the question the NHC.
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8071
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#17 Postby jasons2k » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:53 pm

The left bend in the NHC forecast is the opposite of what I would expect from a deepening system. Also with the ridge possible weakening and shifteing a bit east, I wonder what the reasoning is ?!?!
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Tropical Depression 5: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#18 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:55 pm

Latest

quickscat

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27420
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

Re:

#19 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:56 pm

jschlitz wrote:The left bend in the NHC forecast is the opposite of what I would expect from a deepening system. Also with the ridge possible weakening and shifteing a bit east, I wonder what the reasoning is ?!?!




That's what the models show?
0 likes   

User avatar
Kludge
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 212
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 9:03 pm
Location: Bedias, Texas

Re:

#20 Postby Kludge » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:58 pm

jschlitz wrote:The left bend in the NHC forecast is the opposite of what I would expect from a deepening system. Also with the ridge possible weakening and shifteing a bit east, I wonder what the reasoning is ?!?!


It seems to go against climatology and current conditions alright. But that's okay by me...the last thing I want is 103 degrees and no electricity. CC can have this one.
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 18 guests