Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[srainhoutx]

Thanks wxman57. Keep us informed with Dean, as this has been a good "dry run".

[jasons2k]

What's safe is very debateable.

I live in a "well built" house in The Woodlands, 80 miles inland and 110ft. above sea level. The roof trusses have been reinforced for gusty winds. I have a supply kit ready. We have a week's worth of food and water stashed away, just in case. I have 3 propane tanks and two grills. Batteries. 4, yes four, weather radios. All kinds of stuff.

Guess what? We almost left for Rita. That Wednesday PM forecast just about made my heart stop. If the forecast had not shifted east by the next day we would have left. No second thoughts.

Why??

Winds of 110-120 (Cat. 3) with higher gusts were forecasted for where I live. We are completely surrounded by trees. Trees break things, like roofs and walls. (See pictures of Jasper, Hattiesburg, Seminary, MS, etc. from 2005 for reference). Our garage door, like every other garage door in Houston (except a very rare exception) is not a reinforced, storm rated garage door. If the garage door goes, you can forget structural integrity. NONE of my neighbors boarded-up for Rita. Not one. Do you think these so-called "well built" houses were ready to possibly stand-up to a Category 3 conditions? I don't think so.

If there is another strong Cat. 4 or Cat. 5 forecasted to make a direct hit on Galveston and travel up I-45, you betcha I'm leaving the next time. It's not worth it. Not in a million years.

[shelby]

What's safe is very debateable.

Winds of 110-120 (Cat. 3) with higher gusts were forecasted for where I live. We are completely surrounded by trees. Trees break things, like roofs and walls. (See pictures of Jasper, Hattiesburg, Seminary, MS, etc. from 2005 for reference). Our garage door, like every other garage door in Houston (except a very rare exception) is not a reinforced, storm rated garage door. If the garage door goes, you can forget structural integrity. NONE of my neighbors boarded-up for Rita. Not one. Do you think these so-called "well built" houses were ready to possibly stand-up to a Category 3 conditions? I don't think so.

If there is another strong Cat. 4 or Cat. 5 forecasted to make a direct hit on Galveston and travel up I-45, you betcha I'm leaving the next time. It's not worth it. Not in a million years.

I understand what you are talking about because I grew up with the tornadoes in West Texas - it has never been the water but the wind for me. I saw what wind can do

[jasons2k]

BTW just went outside. Saw the stars. Not a cloud in the sky and the wind was dead calm. You'd never know a TS was in the GOM just off the TX Coast......G'nite all....

[Ptarmigan]

What's a "mph"?

MPH=Masters in Public Health

[TexWx]

Is it the wine?

or is this really trying to spin up?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

btw, Schlitz... we just got a pretty good storm in the Pearland area

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
03:21:00 27.22N 94.45W 843.2 mb 1,580 m 1011.4 mb From 136° (SE) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) - -
Observation was 144 miles (232 km) to the S (171°) from Galveston, TX, USA.

Map this coordinate:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... lon=-94.45

[Starburst]

anyone else notice when you go outside how silent it is? No bug noise, no bird noise, no animal noise period. I find that strange but it caught my attention as the crickets have been so loud here lately it is hard to sleep at night.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I see clouds moving in from the SE right now as storms begin to build and move NW from the GOM...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... rainsnow=0

These storms will probably be capable of some gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rainfall..but nothing too extreme.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42019

[Stratosphere747]

Still little wind and no rain. Surf was up a bit.

[Air Force Met]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42019

I was just about to post about that ob. It is close to the MLC...about 20 miles NW of it and it has a pressure of 1007.5MB. BUT the recon obs have 1009 mb pressures almost 100 miles to the south...and then the pressure drops again. Either we have two centers...or the flight level center is not synced up with the sfc center...or the extrap is off...

But something is off...and something is going on under that MLC south of Freeport.

[srainhoutx]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42019

I was just about to post about that ob. It is close to the MLC...about 20 miles NW of it and it has a pressure of 1007.5MB. BUT the recon obs have 1009 mb pressures almost 100 miles to the south...and then the pressure drops again. Either we have two centers...or the flight level center is not synced up with the sfc center...or the extrap is off...

But something is off...and something is going on under that MLC south of Freeport.

Thanks AFM. Will be watching as something does seem up this evening.

[Air Force Met]

...and we'll never know because they just sent the last Ob without investigating the MLC. Typical.

[Annie Oakley]

You have a huge audience here-hope you stay the professionals that you are.....(kts vs mph) and be patient with us. Thanks for all you do!

[TexasSam]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42019

I was just about to post about that ob. It is close to the MLC...about 20 miles NW of it and it has a pressure of 1007.5MB. BUT the recon obs have 1009 mb pressures almost 100 miles to the south...and then the pressure drops again. Either we have two centers...or the flight level center is not synced up with the sfc center...or the extrap is off...

But something is off...and something is going on under that MLC south of Freeport.

Line from the movie "War Games" comes to mind...
"I'm calling the president, we might have to go through this thing after all".

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42019

I was just about to post about that ob. It is close to the MLC...about 20 miles NW of it and it has a pressure of 1007.5MB. BUT the recon obs have 1009 mb pressures almost 100 miles to the south...and then the pressure drops again. Either we have two centers...or the flight level center is not synced up with the sfc center...or the extrap is off...

But something is off...and something is going on under that MLC south of Freeport.

Brownsville radar .. is much improved on the low level banding verses earlier today..

i have plotted the two buoys on GRLEVEL 3 and where the NHC has the center to the south and if you use brownsville radar its not hard to see the circulation ..

Im not worried about the midlevel circ for two days i have seen 3 separate midlevel circ's blow off away from the llc. with no reformation under it .. but what i do see and i mentioned earlier in a post is evidence the LLC may be getting a tad bit tighter for reason i mentioned that post and from the Brownsville radar showing improved radar structure to the bands on the south side that were not anywhere to be found earlier

but we will see

im just waiting to see if we can get a burst of convection on the south side sometime lol

[lrak]

me too.

[PauleinHouston]

Crazy storm...just before landfall...she starts to get her act together and, looking at the IR loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html, it "finally" looks characteristic of a classic tropical storm.

[Air Force Met]

Im not worried about the midlevel circ for two days i have seen 3 separate midlevel circ's blow off away from the llc. with no reformation under it .. but what i do see and i mentioned earlier in a post is evidence the LLC may be getting a tad bit tighter for reason i mentioned that post and from the Brownsville radar showing improved radar structure to the bands on the south side that were not anywhere to be found earlier

but we will see

im just waiting to see if we can get a burst of convection on the south side sometime lol

Highly doubtful with the amount of deep convection that is bombing out to the north. That is sucking all the energy and dynamics in that direction.