Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[Aric Dunn]

Im not worried about the midlevel circ for two days i have seen 3 separate midlevel circ's blow off away from the llc. with no reformation under it .. but what i do see and i mentioned earlier in a post is evidence the LLC may be getting a tad bit tighter for reason i mentioned that post and from the Brownsville radar showing improved radar structure to the bands on the south side that were not anywhere to be found earlier

but we will see

im just waiting to see if we can get a burst of convection on the south side sometime lol

Highly doubtful with the amount of deep convection that is bombing out to the north. That is sucking all the energy and dynamics in that direction.

I understand what your saying.. but 3 times this has happened and it has never really reformed under the deep convection

take this morning for example ..

each time i seen a burst i was like its going to reform .. but nope!! never did .. and the circ is till pretty evident on radar .. south of the convection
but you may have more tools than me

[Aric Dunn]

i mean look out of the Brownsville radar can you honestly tell me that you would put the center under the convection, the motion of the low level rain showers out of Brownsville just from my obs would not support anything up there ..

if you plot where the nhc has the center and run the radar . I think its pretty clear

but hey again im only using buoy and GRLEVEL 3 radar program(with smoothing ) .. and ship data

not sure what you have ... but i wish i had it

[PauleinHouston]

Interesting IR loop....

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GOM&itype=ir&size=small&endDate=20070816&endTime=-1&duration=3

[Aric Dunn]

whoa look at the buoy now .. TS winds for sure

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42019

[btangy]

i mean look out of the Brownsville radar can you honestly tell me that you would put the center under the convection, the motion of the low level rain showers out of Brownsville just from my obs would not support anything up there ..

if you plot where the nhc has the center and run the radar . I think its pretty clear

but hey again im only using buoy and GRLEVEL 3 radar program(with smoothing ) .. and ship data

not sure what you have ... but i wish i had it

There's definitely still a very diffuse circulation to the S of the big blob of convection, but there's an intensifying mesoscale convective vortex that beginning to show up on the doppler velocities out of Corpus Christi and Galveston. This may become the dominant center if the convection keeps going as strong as it is right now. Or it could be transient like last night.

[Aric Dunn]

i mean look out of the Brownsville radar can you honestly tell me that you would put the center under the convection, the motion of the low level rain showers out of Brownsville just from my obs would not support anything up there ..

if you plot where the nhc has the center and run the radar . I think its pretty clear

but hey again im only using buoy and GRLEVEL 3 radar program(with smoothing ) .. and ship data

not sure what you have ... but i wish i had it

There's definitely still a very diffuse circulation to the S of the big blob of convection, but there's an intensifying mesoscale convective vortex that beginning to show up on the doppler velocities out of Corpus Christi and Galveston. This may become the dominant center if the convection keeps going as strong as it is right now. Or it could be transient like last night.

yeah I know what you mean.. but if you remember earlier when the midlevel circ shot off NW and you looked out of the corpus cristi radar it looked the same with a mesoscale feature then as well..im not saying it wont happen this time but after 3 time of jumping on it .. its just not selling this time

but oh well

[Air Force Met]

i mean look out of the Brownsville radar can you honestly tell me that you would put the center under the convection, the motion of the low level rain showers out of Brownsville just from my obs would not support anything up there ..

if you plot where the nhc has the center and run the radar . I think its pretty clear

but hey again im only using buoy and GRLEVEL 3 radar program(with smoothing ) .. and ship data

not sure what you have ... but i wish i had it

I wasn't saying that...I was saying it is highly doubtful that there will be an explosion of convection near the main low...since all the dynamics are being worked into the convection bomb. I agree with you that the main center is south. What I am saying is that the pressures in the buoy are lower than they should be given the flight level pressures. The buoy pressures are near 1007.5 mb and SOUTH of there it is 1009...and then further south it is 1005. That makes no sense. So...either you have two lows...or you have something going on at flight level that isn't jiving with the sfc. They were, after all, flying at the 850Mb level and we are looking for a sfc feature. Even what you are seeing on the BRO radar isn't at the sfc...it's at about 8000-12000 feet so even that circulation is mid-level...although it most probably matches better to the sfc than the other one.

So that is my point. Something is wrong with the recon extrap data if the buoy pressures are lower further north than the recon pressures. It could be something trying to work down. I don't think it will...there isn't enough time and the gradient is too strong....but the deep convection is stealing the energy from anything that might try to develop near the main low. Hence the reason it is moving more westward with the sfc flow.

[Aric Dunn]

i mean look out of the Brownsville radar can you honestly tell me that you would put the center under the convection, the motion of the low level rain showers out of Brownsville just from my obs would not support anything up there ..

if you plot where the nhc has the center and run the radar . I think its pretty clear

but hey again im only using buoy and GRLEVEL 3 radar program(with smoothing ) .. and ship data

not sure what you have ... but i wish i had it

I wasn't saying that...I was saying it is highly doubtful that there will be an explosion of convection near the main low...since all the dynamics are being worked into the convection bomb. I agree with you that the main center is south. What I am saying is that the pressures in the buoy are lower than they should be given the flight level pressures. The buoy pressures are near 1007.5 mb and SOUTH of there it is 1009...and then further south it is 1005. That makes no sense. So...either you have two lows...or you have something going on at flight level that isn't jiving with the sfc. They were, after all, flying at the 850Mb level and we are looking for a sfc feature. Even what you are seeing on the BRO radar isn't at the sfc...it's at about 8000-12000 feet so even that circulation is mid-level...although it most probably matches better to the sfc than the other one.

So that is my point. Something is wrong with the recon extrap data if the buoy pressures are lower further north than the recon pressures. It could be something trying to work down. I don't think it will...there isn't enough time and the gradient is too strong....but the deep convection is stealing the energy from anything that might try to develop near the main low. Hence the reason it is moving more westward with the sfc flow.

sometimes message boards suck because writing is sometimes misunderstood sorry i miss read

anyway i know when i look out to where th nhc has the center that its in the midlevels
but i was more extrapolating the rain showers closest to the radar to where the center is using the curved banding shape of the lines of showers which not very accurate but its does help see what going on. also even thought is 8000 feet the motion is still revealing as the motion on the west side of the circ are moving south.. so thats what meant.. and yeah i bet there are multiple vortices and yeah the energy is being pulled away from the center...

oh well only a few more hours to see something happen

[Stratosphere747]

Rockport, Aransas County Airport
Lat: 28.09 N Lon: 97.05 W Elev: 26 ft
Last Update on Aug 15, 10:53 pm CDT

Light Rain and Breezy

80°F
(27°C)
Humidity: 87 %
Wind Speed: E 24 G 36 MPH
Barometer: 29.84" (1010.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 76°F (24°C)
Heat Index: 85°F (29°C)
Visibility: 7.00 mi

[srainhoutx]

Current Weather Conditions:
Palacios, Palacios Municipal Airport, TX, United States
(KPSX) 28-43-39N 096-15-03W

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Aug 16, 2007 - 12:53 AM EDTAug 15, 2007 - 11:53 PM CDTAug 15, 2007 - 10:53 PM MDTAug 15, 2007 - 09:53 PM PDTAug 15, 2007 - 08:53 PM ADTAug 15, 2007 - 07:53 PM HDT
2007.08.16 0453 UTC
Wind from the ENE (070 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)
Visibility 1 1/4 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Heavy rain
Mist
Precipitation last hour 0.72 inches
Temperature 79.0 F (26.1 C)
Dew Point 77.0 F (25.0 C)
Relative Humidity 93%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.86 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob KPSX 160453Z AUTO 07010KT 1 1/4SM +RA BR BKN005 BKN014 OVC038 26/25 A2986 RMK AO2 TSE08 SLP110 P0072 T02610250

[Stratosphere747]

Corpus Christi International Airport
Lat: 27.77 N Lon: 97.5 W Elev: 44 ft
Last Update on Aug 15, 11:51 pm CDT

Light Rain and Breezy

79°F
(26°C)
Humidity: 90 %
Wind Speed: E 22 G 30 MPH
Barometer: 29.85" (1010.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 76°F (24°C)
Heat Index: 83°F (28°C)
Visibility: 7.00 mi.

[Chacor]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 160543
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
100 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

...ERIN APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST WITH ASSOCIATED
RAINBANDS MOVING ONSHORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
SAN LUIS PASS SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...205 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 215
MILES...350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO ERIN MAKING
LANDFALL LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A NOAA BUOY NORTH OF THE CENTER
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED IN A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...26.5 N...95.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Normandy]

Heavy rain event occuring on the Middle Texas Coast....Areas between Corpus and Matagorda have already recieved two inches with more on the way....could be looking at widespread totals of 8-10 inches with isolated amounts of 12-14.....Severe flooding is likely to occur unfortunately.....

Appears Erin WILL leave her mark.

[Aric Dunn]

So i hope everyone can see the LLC on the brownsville radar NOW ... as it is about to make landfall in a about 6 hours .. convection is making it easier to see now ..

[crazycajuncane]

Interesting IR loop....

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GOM&itype=ir&size=small&endDate=20070816&endTime=-1&duration=3

It looks like Erin has stole someone's puppy. Very interesting at the end of the loop there.

[Aric Dunn]

she is getting a little better qorganzed this morning radar out of CC show the LLC starting to get convection around finally .. may 45mph at lanfall in 4 to 5 hours

[Coredesat]

Based on the AVN IR loop, it looks almost like the center has reformed to the north of the previous center (convection wrapping around it), but this new center is on the coastline.

[Thunder44]

Dvorak T-numbers are 3.0 which is 45kts:

16/0615 UTC 27.2N 95.8W T3.0/3.0 ERIN

[Coredesat]

NHC has left the system at 35 kt, probably due to the convection being limited to NE of the center.

[vbhoutex]

Erin is landfalling to the NE of Corpus Christi right now from what I can see on radar. She is coming in right over a little place called Spanish Village on San Antonio Bay. We are getting rain in the western and southern portions of the Houston area, but nothing substantial that I can see atm. The areas to our SW, still saturated from earlier rains are getting pounded with rain that they still do not need.