Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[MGC]

There is the possiblility 92L will poof. There is also the possibility that 92L could become a hurricane down the road and hit land. ATT it is just a waiting and watching game. I'd say that 92L has a decent shot at becoming a TD in the next few days. The low level stearing flow will carry it towards the Bahamas and possibly Florida. We shall see.....MGC

[windstorm99]

Updated models....

[Zardoz]

Granted, anything can happen with this system, but you have to admit that at the moment it appears to be disintegrating:

GOES East AVN

[Blown Away]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the end run of those models is Tuesday evening of next week? Wasn't 92L supposed to be near over Florida within 6 days? Confused?

[windstorm99]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the end run of those models is Tuesday evening of next week? Wasn't 92L supposed to be near over Florida within 6 days? Confused?

If this is the case which it does not like it it may never make it to florida as a trof early next week might probably catch it.

[wzrgirl1]

hopefully a trough does catch it because if it's out there that long that it could really intensify

[jrod]

Granted, anything can happen with this system, but you have to admit that at the moment it appears to be disintegrating:

GOES East AVN

It may just be the diurnal minimum the last few hours, if so it should refire overnight.

It looks pretty poor to me, no signs of anything trying to organize and probaly no pressure falls. The thing that caught my eye is the strong winds picked up by quikscat. If this area is still around in 48 hours then I think a storm will happen.

[vaffie]

It's definitely very disorganized-looking right now. But there's an incredible amount of moisture out there, upper level conditions are improving, it has a disorganized low pressure somewhere in there and so it has a good chance of developing. Tonight might be the night for it to develop.

[wzrgirl1]

yep don't think this will amount to much of anything personally

[HURAKAN]

Computer models aren't good at all with a diffused area of showers and thunderstorms. Lets wait for the system to organize, develop an area of LP, and then start calling for a possible landfall point.

I agree that a westward to WNW motion is the most likely option, but before you have anything, don't start arguing where it will make landfall.

[Blown Away]

NWS Melbourne:
FRI-SUN...FCST WILL DEPEND ON FUTURE TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DISORGANIZED T-WAVE BTWN 50W-60W. ATTM...MID-RANGE HPC/NHC
COORDINATED FCST BRINGS A SPOT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
FRI-SAT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN BOTH TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT...
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THRU THIS TIME FRAME.

Ok what's wrong with this picture. Models are near 27N/75W next Tuesday evening (8+ days) and the low is still 300 miles East of Florida and the NWS talks about this wave moving through Central Fl Fri-Sat (6 Days).

[PTPatrick]

Pro mets...

I am not saything this will happen...just a valid synoptic question. There is a chance that 92 L would move across South FL on a WSW trajectory of some sort. This gives me the heebie jeebies considering the family of storms that have had...in the vacinity of the bahamas and S FL... moved with at least some component of WSW movement. Andrew, Katrina, Betsy, and Labor day 1935...quite the family, but I digress. Is there something about a high building in that creates a more than favorable situation for devopment as all the storms have done?

add 1947 Ft. Lauderdale storm to the WSW moving list...

[Brent]

Pro mets...

I am not saything this will happen...just a valid synoptic question. There is a chance that 92 L would move across South FL on a WSW trajectory of some sort. This gives me the heebie jeebies considering the family of storms that have had...in the vacinity of the bahamas and S FL... moved with at least some component of WSW movement. Andrew, Katrina, Betsy, and Labor day 1935...quite the family, but I digress. Is there something about a high building in that creates a more than favorable situation for devopment as all the storms have done?

I thought the exact same thing, don't like this setup AT ALL. People declared TD 10 dead as well and look what happened.

But I do agree, right now it looks horrible.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Pro mets...

I am not saything this will happen...just a valid synoptic question. There is a chance that 92 L would move across South FL on a WSW trajectory of some sort. This gives me the heebie jeebies considering the family of storms that have had...in the vacinity of the bahamas and S FL... moved with at least some component of WSW movement. Andrew, Katrina, Betsy, and Labor day 1935...quite the family, but I digress. Is there something about a high building in that creates a more than favorable situation for devopment as all the storms have done?

I thought the exact same thing, don't like this setup AT ALL. People declared TD 10 dead as well and look what happened.

But I do agree, right now it looks horrible.

I still see a nice pile up continuing tonight north of PR..Sher is killer ATM

[Ptarmigan]

I thought the exact same thing, don't like this setup AT ALL. People declared TD 10 dead as well and look what happened.

But I do agree, right now it looks horrible.

TD10 became TD12, which became Hurricane Katrina.

[MusicCityMan]

You guys r going 2 think I'm nuts.. but BRING HIM ON! we're back in a little bit of a drought here. I haven't seen measurable rain in close to 2 weeks I believe..

We need the rain here in Central Fla.. bring him on.. even if he's a Ts or Cat 1.. Yes I have issues I know lol..

[jrod]

You guys r going 2 think I'm nuts.. but BRING HIM ON! we're back in a little bit of a drought here. I haven't seen measurable rain in close to 2 weeks I believe..

We need the rain here in Central Fla.. bring him on.. even if he's a Ts or Cat 1.. Yes I have issues I know lol..

Florida has been a desert lately. Our highs are forecasted in the upper 90s again this week. I surely will welcome any minor tropical cyclones here.

[MusicCityMan]

Come on Felix.. Be like ur famous cat.. but not too strong plz.. A moderate to strong TS will suffice for me..

[Rieyeuxs]

I'm actually suprised that the models shove it north so early on. The forecast for Alabama is that the ridge will build back up (great, 100's again and still no rain!) throughout the week, and then atart to break down over the weekend. If that's the case, wouldn't the building ridge keep it further south until that ridge breaks down? If that senario plays out, it's got plenty of time to develop as it moves towards the Gulf.

Heck, I'll wishcast here. I'd love to see a tropical storm/min hurricane come this way. Don't need any wind damage, but a 2 day rain event would save a heck of a lot of trees that are dying from thirst!

[Brent]

I'm actually suprised that the models shove it north so early on. The forecast for Alabama is that the ridge will build back up (great, 100's again and still no rain!) throughout the week, and then atart to break down over the weekend. If that's the case, wouldn't the building ridge keep it further south until that ridge breaks down? If that senario plays out, it's got plenty of time to develop as it moves towards the Gulf.

Heck, I'll wishcast here. I'd love to see a tropical storm/min hurricane come this way. Don't need any wind damage, but a 2 day rain event would save a heck of a lot of trees that are dying from thirst!

Yeah, we're a desert now. I've never seen a drought anywhere near this bad...