Invest 92L,West Atlantic

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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
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Re: Invest 92L,West Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis and Imagery

#521 Postby D3m3NT3DVoRT3X » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:31 pm

Met on Fox 13 in tampabay said that this.....Image
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Re: Invest 92L,West Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis and Imagery

#522 Postby Canelaw99 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:34 pm

I wholeheartedly agree it is not looking as healthy as it was earlier today, however, I'm not ready to write this off quite yet. We've all seen little waves/invests die off and then come back in earnest. It'll be interesting to see what happens with this little wave tomorrow, as it may surprise us all. It seems these systems don't like when people write them off too early LOL
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#523 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:40 pm

MusicCityMan wrote:Come on Felix.. Be like ur famous cat.. but not too strong plz.. A moderate to strong TS will suffice for me..


Hehe, Felix the CAT, that has a nice ring to it, but what type of cat will it be? will it be a CAT 1? CAT 2? CAT 3? :lol: I can imagine the play on words the media would have on this one...

Felix the CAT 1 roars ashore....... :lol:
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#524 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:43 pm

It's quite possible that Hurricane Dean is so strong that it is somehow impacting the development of 92L. In fact you can see the high cirrus funneling around an upper level low in the northern Caribbean into 92L. I'm curious to see what happens once Dean moves over land and begins to weaken.
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Re: Invest 92L,West Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis and Imagery

#525 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:01 pm

umm..when dean weakens over land and if invest becomes a TD, this still would not mean dean in any way was hindering development with the invest
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#526 Postby fci » Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:06 pm

Wow this looks nothing like it did earlier today.

Good, just bring us some rain later this week..............

Even the CMC brings it way down in intensity and just a little low passing over Florida in 3 days.
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#527 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:07 pm

its still alive....

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210305
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DEAN...CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS
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Re: Invest 92L,West Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis and Imagery

#528 Postby CourierPR » Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:12 pm

I would not rush to write this system's epitaph just yet.
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#529 Postby boca » Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:13 pm

I think the navy site will drop 92L by tomorrow morning looking the way it does now.No deep convection anywhere near the area. I'll probably jinx myself and be eating crow by tomorrow night.
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#530 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:35 pm

Normal comments:

Morning = Félix
Night = Poof, next!!!
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Re:

#531 Postby kurtpage » Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:41 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Normal comments:

Morning = Félix
Night = Poof, next!!!



:roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:
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Re: Invest 92L,West Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis and Imagery

#532 Postby CourierPR » Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:50 pm

The present convection appears to be consolidating as it rotates counterclockwise. Let's watch what happens.
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Re:

#533 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:57 pm

boca wrote:I think the navy site will drop 92L by tomorrow morning looking the way it does now.No deep convection anywhere near the area. I'll probably jinx myself and be eating crow by tomorrow night.


Boca I'm going to say that yes you will eat crow.

We are too quickly to write off this system. I am with the NHC and do believe we could see something out of this.

Not surprisingly, its starting to flare up again tonight.
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#534 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:59 pm

Diurnal maximum could change these weak blobs in a heartbeat...
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Re: Invest 92L,West Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis and Imagery

#535 Postby Tropics Guy » Mon Aug 20, 2007 11:04 pm

The shear from the ULL centered SW of the system has temporarily halted any organization., if the shear relaxes, which it is forecast to do, then we may see a weak system develop before it gets to FL.

TG
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Re: Invest 92L,West Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis and Imagery

#536 Postby HeeBGBz » Mon Aug 20, 2007 11:32 pm

I was looking at the water vapor loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

It looks like there is a little bit of circulation around 24n and 58w.
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#537 Postby jhamps10 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 11:42 pm

DISCLAIMER!!! This is not an offical forecast dealing with 92L, and therefore do not consider this reliable for this system....



remember folks, if this makes it to the gulf as ANYTHING organized at all, we have Jet Fuel out there getting ready to explode should a storm go into the GOM. in other words, we could have a 55MPH TS in Miami, and we could go to a 165MPH cat 5 before landfall on the other side of the GOM,

Why?

Simple, the water is WARMER this year than in 2005 when Katrina hit SFL as a weak cat 1, and then bombed to a 175 MPH cat 5. Yes I said WARMER! The heat content is a lot warmer, in fact the GOM right now could easily sustain a sub 900 mb storm. Again not saying that we will see something develop into something major, this was just a observation of what the GOM has in it's power right now should something want to tap it.
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#538 Postby fci » Tue Aug 21, 2007 12:09 am

Cart here way before the horse.

What we have now is a weak system with SOME potential for development.
Nothing more than an Invest with probably even odds that it may not even be that for long.

So; folks (as one poster likes to call the S2K audience); let's just relax and see if 92L even survives before we start talking TS for Miami and/or Cat 5 bombers in the GOM

Tomorrow we will see if this "little engine that might" refires or we take our attention to the next area that something more than the CMC brings to the table.
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Re: Invest 92L,West Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis and Imagery

#539 Postby vaffie » Tue Aug 21, 2007 12:35 am

HeeBGBz wrote:I was looking at the water vapor loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

It looks like there is a little bit of circulation around 24n and 58w.


I see it too. Convection is beginning to fire there too. It may start developing tomorrow with the decrease in shear from the ULL and the rapid exit of Dean. I can see this becoming a tropical storm easily by the time it reaches south Florida, which according to Miami NWS discussion will be as early as Wednesday night/Thursday morning since it's moving at 15 knots westward--though they say the 'wave' will be there by then. If that's the case, and it is over south Florida, and if it continues to look like the cold front is not able to get south of Oklahoma before it lifts off and the high rebuilds over the weekend, we may indeed have a developing tropical system in the Gulf heading westward with a lot of potential for intensification. Something to watch. Still very speculative at this point, but interesting nonetheless.
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Re: Invest 92L,West Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis and Imagery

#540 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Aug 21, 2007 1:46 am

Updated Models....

Image
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