CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Chacor]

I think it might be better to have separate advisory and discussion threads...

Here's forecast advisory #1...

743
WTNT24 KNHC 131450
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC MON AUG 13 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 31.6W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 31.6W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 30.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.0N 34.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.9N 38.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 11.9N 41.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 11.9N 44.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 16.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 31.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Derek Ortt]

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=96960

just full of good news this morning

[Brent]

...Fourth depression of the season forms in the far eastern
Atlantic...


at 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 12.0 north...longitude 31.6 west or about 520
miles...840 km...west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde
Islands and about 2000 miles...3220 km...east of the Lesser
Antilles.


The depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph...and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast...and the depression could
become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.


Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...12.0 N...31.6 W. Movement
toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM EDT.


$$
Forecaster Knabb

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

[Ivanhater]

[gatorcane]

the big question is how much WNW it goes towards the end...

it could mean all the world as far as a South Florida strike.

[Aquawind]

64
WTNT44 KNHC 131458
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS REVEALS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS...BUT IT IS
MOSTLY CONFINED WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0723Z THIS MORNING
ONLY CAPTURED THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS
INDICATES SOME BELIEVABLE 30-KT WINDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON THE CURVED BAND PATTERN AT 12Z WERE 25-30 KT...ALTHOUGH THE
DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAVE DECREASED SINCE 12Z. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST THIS
MORNING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/18...BUT MORE
RECENT VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THE CENTER MIGHT BE
EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION. WITH THE
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD WESTWARD...A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION MIGHT
PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE TRACK SHOULD BE GENERALLY
WESTWARD AND FAIRLY BRISK. A VERY GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT AND A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN ON DAY THREE AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL...UKMET...AND GFS.

THE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS...EVEN
THOSE THAT DO NOT HAVE A STRONG REPRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ITSELF...FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER AND
NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES. COMBINED WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS NEARLY HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...AND THE
GFDL FORECAST INTENSITY EXCEEDS 100 KT AT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THEN INDICATES A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE...BUT IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN
BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY AT LONG RANGES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 12.0N 31.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 12.0N 34.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 11.9N 38.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 11.9N 41.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 11.9N 44.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 13.0N 51.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 57.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 16.0N 63.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[CrazyC83]

I agree that development will be slow (it may even be Erin and not Dean depending on what 91L does), but this could become a monster once it gets closer to the islands...

[destruction92]

the big question is how much WNW it goes towards the end...

it could mean all the world as far as a South Florida strike.

I think the majority of the people in this forum are more concerned about a Texas strike.

[gatorcane]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 131458
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS REVEALS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS...BUT IT IS
MOSTLY CONFINED WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0723Z THIS MORNING
ONLY CAPTURED THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS
INDICATES SOME BELIEVABLE 30-KT WINDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON THE CURVED BAND PATTERN AT 12Z WERE 25-30 KT...ALTHOUGH THE
DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAVE DECREASED SINCE 12Z. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST THIS
MORNING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/18...BUT MORE
RECENT VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THE CENTER MIGHT BE
EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION. WITH THE
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD WESTWARD...A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION MIGHT
PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE TRACK SHOULD BE GENERALLY
WESTWARD AND FAIRLY BRISK. A VERY GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT AND A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN ON DAY THREE AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL...UKMET...AND GFS.

THE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS...EVEN
THOSE THAT DO NOT HAVE A STRONG REPRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ITSELF...FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER AND
NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES. COMBINED WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS NEARLY HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...AND THE
GFDL FORECAST INTENSITY EXCEEDS 100 KT AT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THEN INDICATES A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE...BUT IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN
BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY AT LONG RANGES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 12.0N 31.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 12.0N 34.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 11.9N 38.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 11.9N 41.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 11.9N 44.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 13.0N 51.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 57.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 16.0N 63.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Wx_Warrior]

When's the next run?

[punkyg]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145027.shtml?5day#contents

So its suppose to reach
cat 2 status.

[Brent]

Very ominous track.

[ncweatherwizard]

Alright folks, yall know the drill: alot of you have probably been around for awhile, but for those of you who aren't:

In a quick nutshell: I'm Scott, third year undergraduate meteorology/math + other stuff major at the Univ. of Miami. I've been working on a variety of projects at UM and at the Univ. of Oklahoma over the past couple years, but forecasting has always been my thing, so to speak. This is my sixth year of forecasting (granted six years ago it was quite marginal), and it takes alot of time; but I enjoy it. In any case, I'll be around quite a bit more with tropical activity going up, so feel free to make comments and start discussion, etc.

Should have a new web design coming out sometime soon too; I've been having some trouble getting it to work universally, but when it works, the site will look fresher and much easier to navigate!


Storm2K disclaimer: The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Nencweather.com disclaimer: Although these forecasts are statistically reliable (see link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com


Hurricane Dean Forecasts:
viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97082

Scott

[destruction92]

This is taking a track north of what Ivan did...And we all know where Ivan ended up...extrapolate this path a few degrees right and we might see a Florida threat.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This new Forum look is slowing people down on the posts..Thier all confused...

[Aquawind]

When's the next run?

12Z models are running now and should be coming out soon.

[astrosbaseball22]

texas strike?!!??!?!

[punkyg]

td4 is not looking its best, but atleast its got convection over its center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

[sevenleft]

Very ominous track.

For the islands...but thats likely a best case scenario for the US if 04L were to impact Hispaniola and Cuba...would suck for them, tho.