Invest 93L in Bay of Campeche

[HURAKAN]

TWD 205:

THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY IN THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE APPEARS
TO HAVE FRACTURED...AND AS OF 1500 UTC THE NRN PORTION IS BEING
ANALYZED AS A TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO SE FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE TO
THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 22N96W. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM SEE
GULF SECTION BELOW.

AS OF THE 26/1500 UTC MAP...A 1010 MB LOW WAS NEAR
22N96W THAT HAS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE LOW BETWEEN
BROWNSVILLE AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN
92W AND THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO
DRIFT WESTWARD OVER MEXICO WITH NO DEVELOPMENT.

_____________
Same song!!!

[HURAKAN]

[Brent]

Pretty much the same area where Dean was just 5 days ago, I don't really see much coming from it, but if we could get a brief weak Felix out of it that'd be good.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 261852
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1852 UTC SUN AUG 26 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20070826 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070826 1800 070827 0600 070827 1800 070828 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.9N 96.6W 22.6N 98.7W 23.2N 100.7W 23.7N 102.8W
BAMD 21.9N 96.6W 22.1N 98.0W 22.3N 99.3W 22.5N 100.7W
BAMM 21.9N 96.6W 22.4N 98.3W 22.9N 100.0W 23.2N 101.7W
LBAR 21.9N 96.6W 22.4N 98.2W 23.2N 100.1W 24.1N 102.3W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070828 1800 070829 1800 070830 1800 070831 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.0N 104.8W 24.3N 109.5W 24.3N 114.7W 23.6N 120.4W
BAMD 22.7N 102.3W 23.0N 106.2W 23.7N 111.1W 23.9N 116.5W
BAMM 23.4N 103.6W 23.5N 108.2W 23.6N 113.9W 23.1N 120.4W
LBAR 25.1N 104.5W 26.7N 109.0W 27.4N 113.6W 28.2N 118.5W
SHIP 47KTS 63KTS 71KTS 68KTS
DSHP 27KTS 34KTS 40KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.9N LONCUR = 96.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 21.7N LONM12 = 95.2W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 21.5N LONM24 = 93.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Posting this for information to the members,not because SHIP indicates a hurricane,here are the first model plots for 93L from the BAM models.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055 SSW wind in the BOC.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Very possibly a TD already judging by close-up satellite, but it is drifting inland, and therefore may never be officially classified.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Except for the fact the GFS tracks the low level vorticity with this into Central America, this disturbance in the Caribbean has more potential.

Canadian just misses Central America, and brings this to the Yucatan with some development, but it is the Canadian.


UK Met develops a TD in the East Atlantic in 60 hours.

[Cyclone1]

Very possibly a TD already judging by close-up satellite, but it is drifting inland, and therefore may never be officially classified.

There's always 5 o'clock. Until, ya know, it's 5:01.

[tailgater]

Very possibly is a Td right now. Tampico 25mph out of the N
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMTM.html
Don't let the tops of the T-storms that are being blown off to the east, fool ya, the center has been drifting or reforming northwestward all morning, yesterday it was at the bottom of the BOC so let's not jump to thinking it'll be inland in a couple of hrs. and nothing will happen.

[Frank P]

Very possibly is a Td right now. Tampico 25mph out of the N
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMTM.html
Don't let the tops of the T-storms that are being blown off to the east, fool ya, the center has been drifting or reforming northwestward all morning, yesterday it was at the bottom of the BOC so let's not jump to thinking it'll be inland in a couple of hrs. and nothing will happen.

Been watching it on sat loop... not going anywhere to fast at the moment... if anything a very slow nw drift... that being said seems like when the get in this area they want to go inland... if this thing could get some separation from land it might be a go for development...does have pretty good rotation atm and convection on the increase...

[tailgater]

Very possibly is a Td right now. Tampico 25mph out of the N
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMTM.html
Don't let the tops of the T-storms that are being blown off to the east, fool ya, the center has been drifting or reforming northwestward all morning, yesterday it was at the bottom of the BOC so let's not jump to thinking it'll be inland in a couple of hrs. and nothing will happen.

Been watching it on sat loop... not going anywhere to fast at the moment... if anything a very slow nw drift... that being said seems like when the get in this area they want to go inland... if this thing could get some separation from land it might be a go for development...does have pretty good rotation atm and convection on the increase...

I'm surprised the pressure isn't falling, I guess it isn't developing as much as I thought

[Coredesat]

This is somewhat of a broad low, and the loop doesn't show any significant rotation. It's moving inland pretty quickly, so it doesn't seem like development is likely.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND DEVELOPMENT..IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[Ptarmigan]

Based on that advisory, 93L could be written off.

[CrazyC83]

It has the environment on its side but time is working against it. The window to become TD6 is less than 24 hours, perhaps less than 12 hours.

[HURAKAN]

Based on that advisory, 93L could be written off.

Unless it makes a dramatical change in organization in the next 6 to 12 hrs before landfall, then nothing will come out of this.

[FlSteel]

At best this may get a mention in the post season analysis. I doubt it will get classified a TD prior to the broad center being inland.

[cycloneye]

Floater 1 is over 93L.

[HURAKAN]

26/1745 UTC 21.8N 96.7W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

[wxman57]

Good thing it's running out of water. Should be inland this evening. NHC won't do anything with it, and I don't think it qualifies as a TD yet. Just a very weak LLC with heaviest convection inland over Mexico.