Tropical Storm FITOW (WPAC): Disc, Analysis & Imagery

[Chacor]

Looks horrible now. Down to 70 kt on NRL. Not what you'd expect a typhoon to look like. Let's see what DMAX does.

[CrazyC83]

This may be down to an STS...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is looking like it just got slamed. It losted its convection.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

[HurricaneBill]

JTWC has this approaching Japan as a 95KT(1-min) typhoon in the next few days. Tokyo might want to pay attention to this storm.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0709 FITOW (0709) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 27.8N 150.4E GOOD
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 27.5N 148.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 031800UTC 27.8N 145.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 041800UTC 28.4N 142.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[HurricaneRobert]

Fitow's coming back. JTWC predicts it has Tokyo in it's sight.

[HurricaneBill]

The last typhoon to landfall around Tokyo was Typhoon Higos in 2002.



Higo left 24 dead: 9 in Japan; 15 in Russia
Higos caused about $300 million in damage.

JMA had Higos landfalling with 10-min sustained winds of 70KT.
JTWC had Higos landfalling with 1-min sustained winds of 80KT.

[Chacor]

Still an STS after all this while, and STILL expected to regain typhoon strength,

049
WTPQ20 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0709 FITOW (0709)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 27.2N 145.6E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 130NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 28.0N 142.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 051200UTC 29.8N 140.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 061200UTC 31.9N 139.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[HurricaneBill]

JTWC has this at 70KT (1-min). Forecasts Fitow to strengthen to 80KT and then a bit of weakening before landfall, which is expected to be around 75KT. Tokyo will be close to the eyewall.

[Chacor]

WTJP21 RJTD 050000
WARNING 050000.
WARNING VALID 060000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0709 FITOW (0709) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 965 HPA
AT 29.3N 139.9E SOUTH OF HACHIJOJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 31.1N 139.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 33.0N 138.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 38.2N 139.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 41.2N 142.1E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Typhoon Hunter]

The forecast track is almost dead over Tokyo, maybe just a bit to the west. Looks like they might get a day off work!

[magadorm]

Long time lurker. I was previously stationed in Jacksonville during the 2004 season, and now I am currently stationed in Japan at NAF Atsugi. As of right now the eye is supposed to pass within 40 nm of here. Unfortunately, there hasn't been much around about this storm. Looks like it will be getting interesting here starting tomorrow afternoon. This map shows where I am located, just west of Tokyo and Yokohama.

[Chacor]

JMA still have it at 65 kt at 11Z.

JMA are now doing hourly advisories due to the threat to Japan. All advisories are being issued 40-45 minutes after op time (e.g. 11Z is issued at 1140).

JMA forecasts landfall as a 60 kt STS in a little over 24 hours.

[WindRunner]

Anyone else notice the mesovortex (mesovortices?) appearing in Fitow's eye?

http://i198.photobucket.com/albums/aa29 ... .100pc.jpg

[Chacor]

Code: Select all

<Analyses at 06/01 UTC>
Scale      -
Intensity                            Strong
Center position                      N32°05'(32.1°)
                                     E138°30'(138.5°)
Direction and speed of movement      N 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure                     965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed              50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more           Wide 150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more           NE390km(210NM)
                                     SW310km(170NM)

[Chacor]

JMA is going for landfall around 3 am JST tonight about 55 miles southwest of Tokyo.

[magadorm]

The eye is visible on radar now.

http://weathernews.jp/radar/

[Chacor]

Landfall should be soon... around midnight local tonight.

[Chacor]

Latest reports from Irozaki, which is where Fitow is set to make landfall:

969.4 hPa, 30m/s (58 kt)

Also, 974.6 hPa and 19 m/s (37 kt) at Omaezaki, and 981 hPa at Shizuoka.