Tropical Depression GIL (EPAC): Disc, Analysis & Imagery

[RL3AO]

Looks like another weak, EPac fish storm.

PS: Cyclone, did the 95E thread get deleted?

[cycloneye]

I was off-line almost all day until half an hour ago.I didnt noticed the 95E thread so I dont know if it was deleited or it hasnt been made.

[RL3AO]

I made one about an hour ago.

No big deal. It will be remade if it is needed.

[cycloneye]

You can start a new 95E thread.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 292030
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
200 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2007

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE DURING THE DAY.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE INTENSE...THOUGH RECENTLY HAS WANED
A BIT. MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM MASS. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMSU AND LOCAL OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER.
THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GIL...THE
SEVENTH STORM IN A RATHER QUIET EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. A
LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE STORM MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS.

THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE...NOW
ESTIMATED AT 285/10. THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD FORCE A MOTION MORE TO
THE WEST BY LATE TOMORROW. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 19.7N 110.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 112.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 20.4N 114.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 20.2N 118.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 19.5N 122.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
WWWW

[CrazyC83]

Just your average boring EPac storm...

[Brent]

[HURAKAN]

Just your average boring EPac storm...

Act 1: Here comes Gil

Act 2: Here goes Gil

[AnnularCane]

Cute little fella though.

Oh well. Maybe the next one will have more of a chance.

[cycloneye]

622
WHXX01 KMIA 300045
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0045 UTC THU AUG 30 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL (EP102007) 20070830 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070830 0000 070830 1200 070831 0000 070831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 111.3W 20.4N 113.2W 21.1N 115.6W 21.7N 118.2W
BAMD 19.5N 111.3W 20.3N 114.0W 21.0N 116.8W 21.5N 120.0W
BAMM 19.5N 111.3W 20.4N 113.6W 21.4N 116.3W 22.0N 119.4W
LBAR 19.5N 111.3W 20.0N 114.1W 20.7N 117.2W 21.3N 120.4W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 42KTS 44KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 42KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070901 0000 070902 0000 070903 0000 070904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.2N 120.9W 23.1N 126.4W 24.0N 131.7W 24.7N 137.6W
BAMD 22.0N 123.3W 23.1N 129.3W 24.3N 134.4W 25.7N 139.5W
BAMM 22.7N 122.7W 23.9N 128.7W 25.1N 134.0W 26.6N 139.3W
LBAR 21.9N 123.7W 23.9N 130.1W 24.3N 135.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 43KTS 39KTS 34KTS 30KTS
DSHP 43KTS 39KTS 34KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.5N LONCUR = 111.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 19.4N LONM12 = 109.0W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 107.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 999MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 30NM

[Chacor]

Cute little fella though.

Oh well. Maybe the next one will have more of a chance.

... if there is even a next one, you mean.

[RL3AO]

Cute little fella though.

Oh well. Maybe the next one will have more of a chance.

... if there is even a next one, you mean.

"ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED" is not used in the TWO very often. I'm sure we will have Henrietta (?) soon.

[cycloneye]

856
WTPZ45 KNHC 300231
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
800 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2007

LATEST CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GIL
HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. IN FACT...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IMPLYING A POORLY ORGANIZED CYCLONE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL ADVISORY
INTENSITY. GIL IS LOCATED WITHIN A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
CONSISTING OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR
MASS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING AND GIL IS LIKELY
AT OR VERY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS
FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM. THEREAFTER...
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH GIL DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 3
DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.

GIL APPEARS TO BE MOVING MORE TOWARDS THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
270/12. THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE MAINTAINS SOME VERTICAL
DEPTH. BEYOND 24 HOURS...GIL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A PROGRESSIVELY
SHALLOW SYSTEM WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS
IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 19.6N 112.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 19.8N 113.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 19.9N 115.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 19.8N 118.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 19.6N 120.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 19.0N 124.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 300857
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
200 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2007

THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL HAS BEEN RATHER
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING. BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES FROM SSMI AND
AMSU-B...THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTH-
EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WHICH CONTAINS CLOUD
TOPS AROUND -80C. BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN AT 35 KT AND SO DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

GIL IS CURRENTLY UNDER ABOUT 20 KNOTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WHILE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM BETWEEN 26C
AND 27C...MODERATE SHEAR COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...
GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE.

GIL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 270/11. A STRONG MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD STEER GIL ON A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS
THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST...GIL SHOULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS AND FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 19.4N 113.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 19.4N 114.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 19.4N 116.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 19.2N 119.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 18.9N 121.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 18.5N 125.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[cycloneye]

551
WTPZ45 KNHC 301430
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
800 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2007

TIMELY AMSR-E AND TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER
OF GIL THIS MORNING...ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...
BUT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. EASTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO
HAVE PREVENTED ANY INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT...BUT GIL COULD ALREADY BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND. A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STORM AND GIL'S BEST DAY IS PROBABLY
BEHIND IT. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...THOUGH THE
EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX SOMEWHAT TOMORROW.

MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT GIL HAS MOVED A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST
OVERNIGHT AT A SLOWER PACE...260/8. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME
ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO THE NORTH OF GIL. THEREAFTER...A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD OCCUR AS GIL REACHES THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. A 96-HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS GIVEN DUE TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS HOLDING ONTO THE REMNANTS OF GIL FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 19.0N 113.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 18.9N 114.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 18.7N 116.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 18.5N 118.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 18.4N 121.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 18.5N 125.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HurricaneBill]

... if there is even a next one, you mean.

There will be. Activity in the EPAC usually picks up in September.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 302039
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007

THE CENTER OF GIL CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 13Z THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS THAT DEAN MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
ESTIMATED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GIL WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A STABLE AIR
MASS. THESE EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY BALANCE...AND LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL GIL MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS IN A COUPLE DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/9. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY
STRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER ABOUT 48
HOURS...GIL WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN
BACK TO THE WEST AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS OVER COOLER WATER AND THE
LOW-LEVEL STEERING DOMINATES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 19.2N 114.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 19.0N 115.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 18.9N 118.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 18.8N 120.1W 35 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 18.8N 122.3W 35 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 20.0N 131.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1800Z 20.0N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Gill appears to be almost stacked but is dealing with some weak eastly shear. Which is pushing the convection slightly away from the center. But the center appears to be under the convection...Quickscat shows 40 knot winds on the southern side. I would go slightly higher with that, but hey that is the way I'm.

[AnnularCane]

THE CENTER OF GIL CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 13Z THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT DEAN MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED...

I think they've got Dean on the brain.

I'm a Cat. 4! Look out!

[JTD]