Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[southerngale]

For the gazillionth time please upload the sfwmd model maps to Imageshack or a similar place since a lot of people can't view that site. That way, we all can see it, not to mention, it saves the map at this time as well. Thanks!

[Thunder44]

0z ECMWF 48hrs:

Surface


500mb:

[Thunder44]

0z ECMWF 72hrs:

Surface:


500mb:

[southerngale]

Thanks to RattleMan for uploading the map.

[Thunder44]

0z ECMWF Day 4:

Surface:


500mb:

[Thunder44]

0z Nogaps:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2007090300

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE FELIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.0 74.9 280./18.0
6 14.0 76.8 270./18.8
12 14.2 78.8 276./19.4
18 14.5 80.5 279./16.2
24 14.5 82.0 270./14.7
30 14.5 83.4 273./13.3
36 14.7 84.7 275./12.8
42 15.0 86.1 283./14.2
48 15.3 87.5 281./13.9
54 15.4 88.4 275./ 8.7
60 15.5 89.1 280./ 6.4
66 15.3 90.2 263./10.6
72 14.4 92.2 246./22.1
78 14.9 93.1 299./ 9.9
84 15.2 93.6 304./ 5.8
90 15.8 94.1 321./ 7.4
96 16.8 94.8 324./11.6
102 16.6 95.3 252./ 5.3
108 16.5 95.7 257./ 4.3
114 15.7 97.8 248./21.1

STORM DISSIPATED AT 114 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

6z GFDL

[Berwick Bay]

Felix continues racing west. But I would look for a somewhat slower speed later this afternoon, perhaps down to about 15 mph and the beginnings of a more WNW component. I expect Felix to make the approach to very near Honduras before beginning to pull on a more WNW to NW course in the NW Carib. This is still in line with my thinking from Sat morning. Of course I am an amateur, and this prediction is in no way backed by Storm 2k or any of the meterological agencies. For official information rely on the NHC.

[wxman57]

0z ECMWF Day 4:

Surface:


500mb:

Hmm, all I see in your posts is "Surface: and 500mb:" I can't see images when uploaded to imageshack. So much for that.

[PhillyWX]

0z ECMWF Day 4:

Surface:


500mb:

Hmm, all I see in your posts is "Surface: and 500mb:" I can't see images when uploaded to imageshack. So much for that.

http://img373.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... aceiw1.gif

http://img98.imageshack.us/my.php?image ... 0mbaf3.gif

Click on those links...that should work.

[Portastorm]

Felix continues racing west. But I would look for a somewhat slower speed later this afternoon, perhaps down to about 15 mph and the beginnings of a more WNW component. I expect Felix to make the approach to very near Honduras before beginning to pull on a more WNW to NW course in the NW Carib. This is still in line with my thinking from Sat morning. Of course I am an amateur, and this prediction is in no way backed by Storm 2k or any of the meterological agencies. For official information rely on the NHC.

BB ... like Rock said yesterday ... I'll give you credit for sticking to your guns on this.

But it's ok if you want to concede now, too!

[Extremeweatherguy]

well, with even more models shifting south and a mainly westward storm motion overnight, I am now going to agree that the U.S. looks pretty safe. Sure, things could change, but ATM I am much less worried. Looks like a Hondorus/Belize first hit followed by a possible emergence into the BOC and a Mexico second hit.

[wxman57]

0z ECMWF Day 4:

Surface:


500mb:

Hmm, all I see in your posts is "Surface: and 500mb:" I can't see images when uploaded to imageshack. So much for that.

http://img373.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... aceiw1.gif

http://img98.imageshack.us/my.php?image ... 0mbaf3.gif



Click on those links...that should work.

I see the problem, anything at imageshack is blocked by our "websense" Internet monitoring system here at work. So I can only see the images at home. I don't need to see them, as I get the ECMWF feed at my workstation. Just pointing out that the images weren't visible.

[Berwick Bay]

Felix continues racing west. But I would look for a somewhat slower speed later this afternoon, perhaps down to about 15 mph and the beginnings of a more WNW component. I expect Felix to make the approach to very near Honduras before beginning to pull on a more WNW to NW course in the NW Carib. This is still in line with my thinking from Sat morning. Of course I am an amateur, and this prediction is in no way backed by Storm 2k or any of the meterological agencies. For official information rely on the NHC.

BB ... like Rock said yesterday ... I'll give you credit for sticking to your guns on this.

But it's ok if you want to concede now, too!

I'm not anywhere near ready to concede. However, if that time comes then I will be happy to do just that. But Portastorm, right now Felix is still pretty much on the track I projected, perhaps just a tad south. If you look back earlier in the thread at the model page which was posted, you'll see the Nogaps solution. This is not too far off on my own projection from Sat. I'm a tad further north though. So I do expect a slowing storm later today with a gradual shift to the WNW. Tomorrow will be the key as Felix makes the approach toward Honduras. I'm looking for big changes tomorrow, with a further slowdown and a more pronounced north component, between WNW and NW, As I stated earlier with a disclaimer.

[PhillyWX]

I'm not anywhere near ready to concede. However, if that time comes then I will be happy to do just that. But Portastorm, right now Felix is still pretty much on the track I projected, perhaps just a tad south. If you look back earlier in the thread at the model page which was posted, you'll see the Nogaps solution. This is not too far off on my own projection from Sat. I'm a tad further north though. So I do expect a slowing storm later today with a gradual shift to the WNW. Tomorrow will be the key as Felix makes the approach toward Honduras. I'm looking for big changes tomorrow, with a further slowdown and a more pronounced north component, between WNW and NW, As I stated earlier with a disclaimer.

Felix will be over Honduras within the next 18 hours based on its current movement. Land interaction will weaken the storm. The track its taking, which is south of your forecast, would put it over land for a good while, which will weaken this storm a great deal. Honduras is not the Yucatan. Neither is southern Belize.

[Steve]

>>Felix continues racing west. But I would look for a somewhat slower speed later this afternoon, perhaps down to about 15 mph and the beginnings of a more WNW component. I expect Felix to make the approach to very near Honduras before beginning to pull on a more WNW to NW course in the NW Carib. This is still in line with my thinking from Sat morning.

No offense, but with pretty much every storm you discuss, you find a Gulf Coast threat or hint at one. I believe this is the 3rd such storm this season. Your thinking Saturday morning was more or less of a wishcast.

Steve

[Berwick Bay]

C'mon Steve. What do mean the "third storm this season" in which I've called for a gulf coast threat? With Dean I made no landfall prediction at all and hardly posted on this board. I came on very briefly to speculate about the strength of the ULL in the Gulf at that time (like many others), but I did not challenge the official forecast. Since Tropical Storm Barry we've only had Chantal (north Atlantic), Dean (which I made no forecast on ), Erin (which I made no forecast on ) and now Felix. I really don't know why you would make an unfounded accusation like that.

[Steve]

Because I didn't feel like going back researching. I like you as a poster. I just notice that when I run across your posts discussing active storms, they seem to be looking for that proverbial NW turn. Like I said, no offense. You are a good poster.

Steve

[gatorcane]

I was a right outlier for much of the storm's path but now like the models have shifted my thinking to the fact Felix is not a threat to the US and will crash into Honduras and weaken over Central America.

I just can't believe how lucky the US has been this season. Two CAT 5s in the Caribbean and both cannot find any weakness in the ridge to turn to the right.

Unbelievable that is all I have to say.

Once the ridges finally weaken I know what will happen. A storm in the Atlantic will approach but then recurve out to sea.....that is the next thing I am waiting for.

[mattpetre]

Yes, I would like to give some kudos to Derek Ortt and other professionals for pretty much nailing another forecast. I know you say this particular steering environment makes for a relatively easy forecast path, but for us that don't really know as much it just seems amazing that this ridge keeps building back in as well as it has. I just remember storms like Erin and good ol' 99L a month or more back and how they veered north of predictions. Again, I just wanted to say thank you to the pros for their insightful and accurate comments. I apologize if mine or others posts sometimes seem like wishcasting, but I think part of it is just that we want to be ready for what we consider to be our own personal worst case scenario for any given storm. When I didn't live on the coast it was much easier to be objective about these things... I admit that I have a completely different perspective now. Again, thank you for keeping us in check...