Invest 95L off SC/GA coast:=Gone from NRL

[windstorm99]

Here is a loop showing all convection with 95L being ripped away.

[jaxfladude]

So at this point the Invest 95L is weak but can become a TD but likely to move away from the USA...bears watching for any changes...

[storms in NC]

It will build back up over night. it is to be in a better environment in a day or so

[cpdaman]

system is already down to 30 N 76 W

i will be hoping for some kind of a waist high wave in delray tom. morning

this thing is not going to develop thru next 24 hours IMO , the shear and dry air from the upper trough have suffocated this thing pretty well

it is interesting that there is another low further to the ne and maybe one of these two features can close off, probably the one to the SW will have a better shot at staying around while the other low gets pushed out but the cold front.

if the first low drops south (more than forecast (28n))enough maybe the enviornment will be better for it

cool swirl to watch

[gatorcane]

depending upon just how far south it drifts I wonder if it could swing back west and get caught under the ridge pushing it into the east coast of Fl????

Something to think about

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 300035
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC THU AUG 30 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952007) 20070830 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070830 0000 070830 1200 070831 0000 070831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.7N 76.0W 29.1N 76.2W 28.9N 76.3W 29.4N 76.5W
BAMD 29.7N 76.0W 28.5N 76.1W 27.7N 76.4W 27.6N 76.8W
BAMM 29.7N 76.0W 28.7N 76.2W 28.2N 76.4W 28.3N 76.6W
LBAR 29.7N 76.0W 28.8N 76.1W 28.7N 76.4W 29.2N 77.0W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070901 0000 070902 0000 070903 0000 070904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.1N 76.4W 31.7N 76.2W 31.7N 76.0W 30.3N 74.2W
BAMD 28.4N 77.0W 31.1N 75.6W 32.8N 69.1W 35.6N 61.0W
BAMM 29.2N 76.7W 31.4N 75.9W 32.1N 72.5W 32.7N 66.4W
LBAR 30.2N 77.1W 33.9N 74.9W 37.3N 68.5W 40.2N 60.2W
SHIP 51KTS 65KTS 64KTS 59KTS
DSHP 51KTS 65KTS 64KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.7N LONCUR = 76.0W DIRCUR = 170DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 31.2N LONM12 = 76.1W DIRM12 = 166DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 32.6N LONM24 = 76.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Ptarmigan]

I see two invests in the Atlantic. Both need to be watched, especially 95L because it is closer to us and the season is starting to peak. It could become Felix.

[Emmett_Brown]

Reminds me of the area where Jeane got her second wind. This one looks pretty weak now, but so did Jeane before she did her loop back toward FL. Not saying that would happen, just using it to illustrate that anything is possible.

[cycloneye]

1030 PM Tropical Weather Outlook for 95L.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF A NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 330 MILES
EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY...IF NECESSARY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
OR SOUTHEASTWARD.

[whereverwx]

1030 PM Tropical Weather Outlook for 95L.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF A NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 330 MILES
EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY...IF NECESSARY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
OR SOUTHEASTWARD.

I believe that you forgot something? Who wrote that?

That is not the point.
Pasting an NHC forecast without proper acknowledgement is not acceptable!

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[cycloneye]

FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME

[marcane_1973]

I say stick a fork in this baby while it takes a ride out to sea.

[skysummit]

06z Model Runs...

[Hyperstorm]

I'm surprised no one is talking about the system NE of 95L. To me that system has more chances of development than 95L. I've been watching it for the past 36 hours and the system does have a circulation associated with it. Thunderstorms have really persisted over the past 24 hours and even banding features are starting to show up. I think this system is rapidly acquiring tropical characteristics. Watch for another invest to form later today east of North Carolina.

[Emmett_Brown]

I'm surprised no one is talking about the system NE of 95L. To me that system has more chances of development than 95L. I've been watching it for the past 36 hours and the system does have a circulation associated with it. Thunderstorms have really persisted over the past 24 hours and even banding features are starting to show up. I think this system is rapidly acquiring tropical characteristics. Watch for another invest to form later today east of North Carolina.

I agree. It definitely is the more impressive of the 2 systems at the moment, and could keep 95L from developing in the short term, unless the cold front pulls it away.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?banner=mkwc&chnl=ui4&domain=asb&size=large&period=360&incr=15&rr=300&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

Ultimately, i think 95L will survive, but will take a few days to develop while it meanders around east of the Bahamas.

[PhillyWX]

Reminds me of the area where Jeane got her second wind. This one looks pretty weak now, but so did Jeane before she did her loop back toward FL. Not saying that would happen, just using it to illustrate that anything is possible.

Jeanne was also an organized tropical storm that was intensifying...albeit slowly. Shear also was next-to-nothing in that timeframe.

[Thunder44]

On visible loop, I can see a low-level center spinning near 31N and 74W. The convection blob to the south is nowhere near it. I don't think this will develop today due to 96L's rapid development.

[flwxwatcher]

Looks like 95L is finished and looks like 96L has stole its thunder.

[boca]

96L is sucking the life out of 95L so I predict one less invest by tonight.

[storms in NC]

96L is sucking the life out of 95L so I predict one less invest by tonight.

Well It is dead. It was in the 11AM update