Invest 95L off SC/GA coast:=Gone from NRL
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- windstorm99
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Invest 95L off SC/GA coast:=Gone from NRL
Post away....
Last edited by windstorm99 on Wed Aug 29, 2007 8:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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SHIPS 12Z output...
Code: Select all
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 52 59 64 65 64 61 56
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 52 59 64 65 64 61 56
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 46 53 57 57 55 51
SHEAR (KTS) 14 11 12 15 13 10 7 11 20 26 31 29 31
SHEAR DIR 336 335 323 339 355 325 331 274 261 255 250 248 252
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 152 150 150 152 149 144 138 133 131
ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 128 127 126 122 124 127 126 122 117 112 111
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3
TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 10 9 11 9 10 9 8 6 6 5
700-500 MB RH 48 47 46 47 54 54 54 51 53 51 52 47 46
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 7 7 6
850 MB ENV VOR -8 6 5 13 26 37 41 28 10 -23 -30 -25 -11
200 MB DIV 7 11 -14 1 12 -10 34 2 19 -7 14 -6 -12
LAND (KM) 334 397 454 466 454 443 469 531 479 484 597 782 960
LAT (DEG N) 31.4 30.8 30.2 29.7 29.2 28.7 28.9 29.8 30.9 31.9 32.6 32.9 33.3
LONG(DEG W) 76.2 76.1 76.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 75.8 75.3 74.3 72.6 70.4 68.0 65.8
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 3 1 3 6 7 10 10 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 49 57 55 50 45 45 43 46 34 28 11 11 17
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- windstorm99
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Re: Invest 95L of the carolinas Discussions-Analysis-Imagery
At appears the the cold front would catch it and sweep it out to sea.
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- Weatherfreak14
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Re: Invest 95L of the carolinas Discussions-Analysis-Imagery
I can see a center exposed northwest of most convection.
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- skysummit
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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT WED 29 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-097
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 30/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 30/1500Z
D. 29.0N 76.5W
E. 30/1730Z TO 30/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA CYCLONE
C. 31/0200Z
D. 28.0N 76.0W
E. 31/0500Z TO 31/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYTEM NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS REMAINS A THREAT.
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 13N 58W AT 31/1800Z.
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT WED 29 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-097
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 30/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 30/1500Z
D. 29.0N 76.5W
E. 30/1730Z TO 30/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA CYCLONE
C. 31/0200Z
D. 28.0N 76.0W
E. 31/0500Z TO 31/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYTEM NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS REMAINS A THREAT.
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 13N 58W AT 31/1800Z.
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- windstorm99
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Re: Invest 95L of the carolinas Discussions-Analysis-Imagery
Jeff masters....
South Carolina low
An area of low pressure has developed a few hundred miles off the South Carolina coast, along an old frontal boundary. This disturbance has been designated "95L" by NHC this morning. QuikSCAT showed a sharp wind shift but no closed circulation around 95L this morning at 6:34am EDT, and measured winds as high as 50 mph. Wind shear is about 15 knots over the disturbance, which is drifting south into a region where wind shear is expected to remain low enough to allow some development this week. I do think 95L will become a tropical depression, and most of the computer models also agree on this. The models disagree substantially on 95L's track, though. Steering currents will be weak in its vicinity, and 95L may spend a number of days wandering erratically. The Hurricane Hunters will investigate 95L Thursday afternoon
South Carolina low
An area of low pressure has developed a few hundred miles off the South Carolina coast, along an old frontal boundary. This disturbance has been designated "95L" by NHC this morning. QuikSCAT showed a sharp wind shift but no closed circulation around 95L this morning at 6:34am EDT, and measured winds as high as 50 mph. Wind shear is about 15 knots over the disturbance, which is drifting south into a region where wind shear is expected to remain low enough to allow some development this week. I do think 95L will become a tropical depression, and most of the computer models also agree on this. The models disagree substantially on 95L's track, though. Steering currents will be weak in its vicinity, and 95L may spend a number of days wandering erratically. The Hurricane Hunters will investigate 95L Thursday afternoon
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Re:
CronkPSU wrote:so we have a possible rainmaker and now a cold front appears?
I just got on and started looking at the models and was thinking the exact same thing.
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Re: Invest 95L of the carolinas Discussions-Analysis-Imagery
The LLC is still distorted to the north and engrained in the front. Needs to wrap before it goes tropical over the Gulf Stream. Strange south movement.
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Re: Invest 95L of the carolinas Discussions-Analysis-Imagery
This needs to bring rain to ockeechobee!
I think a tropical depression hopefully with a lot
of rain to fill the dry lakes.
I think a tropical depression hopefully with a lot
of rain to fill the dry lakes.
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- HURAKAN
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 29, 2007
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands
is producing showers and thunderstorms. Although this activity is
currently disorganized...environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more favorable for development as the system moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
An area of disturbed weather over the western Atlantic is primarily
associated with a non-tropical low centered about 260 miles
southeast of Charleston South Carolina. Upper-level winds could
become a little more favorable for development during the next few
days...and an Air Force plane is ready to investigate the system on
Thursday...if necessary. The low is expected to drift southward.
Showers and thunderstorms primarily located over the Yucatan
Peninsula are associated with a tropical wave. This activity is
expected to move over the Bay of Campeche during the next day or so
and will be monitored for any signs of development.
Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake
Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 29, 2007
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands
is producing showers and thunderstorms. Although this activity is
currently disorganized...environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more favorable for development as the system moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
An area of disturbed weather over the western Atlantic is primarily
associated with a non-tropical low centered about 260 miles
southeast of Charleston South Carolina. Upper-level winds could
become a little more favorable for development during the next few
days...and an Air Force plane is ready to investigate the system on
Thursday...if necessary. The low is expected to drift southward.
Showers and thunderstorms primarily located over the Yucatan
Peninsula are associated with a tropical wave. This activity is
expected to move over the Bay of Campeche during the next day or so
and will be monitored for any signs of development.
Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Re: Invest 95L of the carolinas Discussions-Analysis-Imagery
Is a ridge supposed to build in? The models are picking the cold
front theory. But there is evidence of a ridge with the SE flow across
Florida. Not wishcasting, but wondering about that ridge.
front theory. But there is evidence of a ridge with the SE flow across
Florida. Not wishcasting, but wondering about that ridge.
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- HURAKAN
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Re: Invest 95L of the carolinas Discussions-Analysis-Imagery
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:This needs to bring rain to ockeechobee!
I think a tropical depression hopefully with a lot
of rain to fill the dry lakes.
It will have to move very close or over land to produce rainfall because where it's located at the moment only dry air is what 95L will allow over Florida.
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- Lowpressure
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Re: Invest 95L off SC coast: Discussions, Analysis & Imagery
North Carolina really needs some rain. The ridge is suppose to surpress 94L but not 95L?
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