Tropical Depression HENRIETTE: Discussions & Advisories

[Chacor]

Still a tropical storm. Henriette just refuses to strengthen.

[fasterdisaster]

Reminds me of Arlene and Franklin

[HurricaneRobert]

It has a clearly-defined eye. Is it really still a tropical storm?

[CrazyC83]

It has a clearly-defined eye. Is it really still a tropical storm?

I doubt it. They haven't sent anything in there to give real data, but I do think Henriette is a hurricane right now.

[Chacor]

06Z ATCF again initialises as a 65 kt hurricane. Whether NHC upgrades is another matter, as we saw at the 8 pm advisory.

EP, 11, 2007090406, , BEST, 0, 209N, 1088W, 65, 978, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 90, 70, 70, 1008, 190, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HENRIETTE, D,
EP, 11, 2007090406, , BEST, 0, 209N, 1088W, 65, 978, HU, 50, NEQ, 45, 40, 25, 25, 1008, 190, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HENRIETTE, D,
EP, 11, 2007090406, , BEST, 0, 209N, 1088W, 65, 978, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1008, 190, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HENRIETTE, D,

[Thunder44]

5am Advisory, now a hurricane with 75mph winds.

[fasterdisaster]

FINALLY.

[Thunder44]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 040857
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007

...HENRIETTE STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...

AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON
THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

A 2 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA
NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO
SAN ANDRESITO.

AT 2 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST
COAST.

AT 2 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
...AND A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
HENRIETTE.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...21.4 N...109.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[HURAKAN]

Radar:

[Chacor]

WTPZ31 KNHC 041149
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007

...OUTER BANDS OF HENRIETTE APPROACHING SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA NORTHWARD
TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA
NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE
CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO HENRIETTE MAKING
LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
HENRIETTE.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...21.9 N...109.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[cycloneye]

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC TUE SEP 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRIETTE (EP112007) 20070904 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070904 1200 070905 0000 070905 1200 070906 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.8N 109.3W 23.2N 110.0W 24.7N 110.4W 26.7N 110.4W
BAMD 21.8N 109.3W 23.5N 109.9W 25.4N 110.2W 27.7N 110.1W
BAMM 21.8N 109.3W 23.5N 109.9W 25.3N 110.3W 27.6N 110.2W
LBAR 21.8N 109.3W 23.4N 110.2W 25.3N 111.1W 27.3N 111.8W
SHIP 75KTS 81KTS 83KTS 81KTS
DSHP 75KTS 66KTS 73KTS 70KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070906 1200 070907 1200 070908 1200 070909 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.4N 110.0W 30.0N 108.1W 29.8N 107.6W 29.5N 107.7W
BAMD 29.9N 109.4W 32.7N 106.1W 33.4N 101.8W 32.8N 98.2W
BAMM 29.7N 109.6W 32.0N 106.9W 32.5N 104.0W 31.8N 101.5W
LBAR 29.5N 111.4W 33.9N 107.6W 36.2N 100.3W 38.4N 93.2W
SHIP 76KTS 61KTS 42KTS 19KTS
DSHP 42KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 109.3W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 20.3N LONM12 = 108.6W DIRM12 = 337DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 19.4N LONM24 = 107.9W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 972MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 190NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 70NM RD34NW = 70NM

[PhillyWX]

Personal, unofficial forecast speculation: Henriette's moisture is likely to cause problems for the Central and SW US in the next 3-4 days as it gets picked up by the trough digging down in the Western US.

[HURAKAN]

821
WTPZ31 KNHC 041450
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007

...HENRIETTE STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 800 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF
LORETO TO MULEGE.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA NORTHWARD
TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO.

AT 800 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA KINO...AND EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM GUYAMAS
NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FOR
ALTATA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH HENRIETTE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA
AND CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER
MAKING LANDFALL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
HENRIETTE.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...22.2 N...109.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[HURAKAN]

323
WTPZ41 KNHC 041451
TCDEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007

HENRIETTE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING WITH A DISTINCT EYE
NOW APPARENT IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA
FROM CABO SAN LUCAS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 335/9. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
WITH A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AHEAD OF A TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED ABOUT A TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THEN CROSSING THE SEA
OF CORTEZ AND REACHING THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 36
HOURS. THE UKMET MODEL CONTINUES TO BE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE WHILE THE GFDL IS SURPRISINGLY LOCATED TOWARD
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND REPRESENTS ONLY
A SMALL CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
AS HENRIETTE HAS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS OVER WATER PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
THEREAFTER...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION WITH THE BAJA PENINSULA AND ULTIMATELY THE HIGHLY
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MAINLAND MEXICO. HENRIETTE'S SURFACE
CIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE ONCE INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE COULD
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN 2-3 DAYS.

SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS WERE REQUIRED FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 22.2N 109.4W 75 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 23.6N 110.1W 65 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA
24HR VT 05/1200Z 25.5N 110.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 27.4N 110.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 29.2N 110.5W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[dtrain44]

This moisture is a big concern around these parts - we've had enough flooding over the last couple of months. NWS Norman is saying that it's too far out to know about that, which is of course true. The biggest immediate questions to my mind are potential flooding impacts in Mexico and how strong it will be when it makes final landfall - my guess is a strong tropical storm, as Henriette has not been strengthening much and will likely be weakened by the Baja.

[HURAKAN]

Landfall:

[HURAKAN]

194
WTPZ31 KNHC 042039
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007

...HENRIETTE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA NEAR SAN
JOSE DEL CABO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
MULEGE.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA NORTHWARD
TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FOR ALTATA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST OR NEAR SAN
JOSE DEL CABO ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT
25 MILES...40 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE SEA OF CORTEZ LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE HENRIETTE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH WHILE
CROSSING THE SEA OF CORTEZ.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
HENRIETTE.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...23.1 N...109.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[HURAKAN]

193
WTPZ41 KNHC 042039
TCDEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS INDICATE
THAT HENRIETTE MADE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS NEAR SAN
JOSE DEL CABO AROUND 2030 UTC. DVORAK INTENSITY WERE 75 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SINCE THAT TIME...THE EYE
HAS BEGUN TO FILL AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS BECOME RAGGED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT.

HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATED AT 345/9. A NORTHWARD TURN WITH A SLIGHT
ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CLUSTERED ABOUT A TRACK
ACROSS THE SEA OF CORTEZ REACHING THE MAINLAND COAST OF
MEXICO IN 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING DUE TO HENRIETTE'S FORECAST SHORT DURATION
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS UNCLEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES
THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL BE DISRUPTED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ. HENRIETTE
SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN ONCE MAKING ITS SECOND LANDFALL ALONG
THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE THE TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HENRIETTE COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN 2-3
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 23.1N 109.6W 70 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 24.4N 110.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 26.3N 110.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 28.4N 110.6W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 110.1W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[ncwx]

Local Cabo San Lucas internet weather site. FWIW.

09.04.07 12:30 PM

winds 20 NW gusts 44 mph
5.39 inches of rain

[HURAKAN]

550
WTPZ31 KNHC 042352
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007

...HENRIETTE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
MULEGE.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA NORTHWARD
TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FOR ALTATA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST OR JUST WEST
OF CABO PULMO ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT
40 MILES...80 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING ON A MOTION BETWEEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SEA OF CORTEZ WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE HENRIETTE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH WHILE CROSSING THE SEA OF CORTEZ.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
HENRIETTE.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...23.5 N...109.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN