#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 30, 2007 3:29 pm
WTPZ31 KNHC 302026
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS
DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO ACAPULCO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ACAPULCO TO
ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...260 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO AND ABOUT 250 MILES...400 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
MEXICAN COASTLINE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA...GUERRERO...MICHOCAN...AND COLIMA WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS AROUND 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...14.3 N...97.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
WTPZ41 KNHC 302027
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO IS NOW A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB/SAB ARE 30 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. A
SHIP REPORT AT 1700 UTC OF 41 KT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
THE FUTURE INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BE DICTATED
BY HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM GETS TO LAND AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS CHARACTERIZED THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING MOST OF THE SEASON. THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE BUT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS RAPID STRENGTHENING...TO 101 KT IN 72
HOURS...ASSUMING THE SYSTEM STAYS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THE GFDL/HWRF
DO NOT INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM VERY MUCH EVEN THOUGH THEY KEEP THE
SYSTEM OVER WATER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE FOR NOW...BUT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN A CONSENSUS OF
THE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THERE IS A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT SHOULD
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR A DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...A TRACK MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES STEERED BY WEAK
RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS
NOTABLE THAT GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT BEYOND 3 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 14.3N 97.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 15.0N 98.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 15.9N 99.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 16.8N 100.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 17.5N 102.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 19.0N 105.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 20.3N 108.3W 75 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 111.0W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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