Tropical Depression HENRIETTE: Discussions & Advisories
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HURAKAN
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WTPZ21 KNHC 050244
TCMEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
0300 UTC WED SEP 05 2007
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA KINO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
MULEGE.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
NORTH OF BAHIA MADGALENA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 109.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 90SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 109.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 109.6W
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.6N 110.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.5N 110.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 29.7N 110.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.8N 108.9W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 109.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTPZ21 KNHC 050244
TCMEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
0300 UTC WED SEP 05 2007
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA KINO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
MULEGE.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
NORTH OF BAHIA MADGALENA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 109.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 90SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 109.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 109.6W
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.6N 110.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.5N 110.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 29.7N 110.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.8N 108.9W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 109.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
602
WTPZ31 KNHC 050247
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007
...HENRIETTE HAS EMERGED OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA KINO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
MULEGE.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
NORTH OF BAHIA MADGALENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES...60 KM...EAST OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM
...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING ON A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH
NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN
MAINLAND MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...24.1 N...109.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTPZ31 KNHC 050247
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007
...HENRIETTE HAS EMERGED OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA KINO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
MULEGE.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
NORTH OF BAHIA MADGALENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES...60 KM...EAST OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM
...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING ON A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH
NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN
MAINLAND MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...24.1 N...109.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
0 likes
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
997
WTPZ41 KNHC 050254
TCDEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007
THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE HAS RECENTLY EMERGED OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ
NEAR ISLA CERRALVO. THE RAGGED EYE THAT WAS SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY PRIOR TO LANDFALL ERODED DURING HENRIETTE'S BRIEF PASSAGE
OVER LAND. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS NOT
DEGRADED VERY MUCH AND A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB
SUGGESTS THAT HENRIETTE IS STILL A HURRICANE.
THE MOTION HAS BEEN BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS OR SO...ABOUT 350/10. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION UNTIL
LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS A
PERSISTENCE COMPONENT AND IS TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED BETTER DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS.
HENRIETTE WEAKENED LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED OVER BAJA...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST NOW KEEPS IT AT HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT HENRIETTE
COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE SINCE THE WATER IN THE SEA OF CORTEZ IS
QUITE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. THIS FORECAST
ASSUMES THAT HENRIETTE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME OVER WATER IN WHICH
TO STRENGTHEN. IF THE HURRICANE MOVES LEFT OF TRACK AND SPENDS
MORE TIME OVER WATER IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN NOTED BELOW.
BECAUSE HENRIETTE WILL APPROACH THE MAINLAND COAST AT A SHARPLY
OBLIQUE ANGLE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND/OR
LANDFALL LOCATION. A SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
WOULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN LANDFALL LOCATION ALONG MAINLAND
MEXICO. WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL
SURVIVE THE TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0300Z 24.1N 109.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 25.6N 110.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 27.5N 110.2W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/1200Z 29.7N 110.0W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 07/0000Z 31.8N 108.9W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTPZ41 KNHC 050254
TCDEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007
THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE HAS RECENTLY EMERGED OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ
NEAR ISLA CERRALVO. THE RAGGED EYE THAT WAS SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY PRIOR TO LANDFALL ERODED DURING HENRIETTE'S BRIEF PASSAGE
OVER LAND. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS NOT
DEGRADED VERY MUCH AND A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB
SUGGESTS THAT HENRIETTE IS STILL A HURRICANE.
THE MOTION HAS BEEN BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS OR SO...ABOUT 350/10. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION UNTIL
LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS A
PERSISTENCE COMPONENT AND IS TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED BETTER DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS.
HENRIETTE WEAKENED LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED OVER BAJA...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST NOW KEEPS IT AT HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT HENRIETTE
COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE SINCE THE WATER IN THE SEA OF CORTEZ IS
QUITE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. THIS FORECAST
ASSUMES THAT HENRIETTE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME OVER WATER IN WHICH
TO STRENGTHEN. IF THE HURRICANE MOVES LEFT OF TRACK AND SPENDS
MORE TIME OVER WATER IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN NOTED BELOW.
BECAUSE HENRIETTE WILL APPROACH THE MAINLAND COAST AT A SHARPLY
OBLIQUE ANGLE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND/OR
LANDFALL LOCATION. A SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
WOULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN LANDFALL LOCATION ALONG MAINLAND
MEXICO. WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL
SURVIVE THE TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0300Z 24.1N 109.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 25.6N 110.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 27.5N 110.2W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/1200Z 29.7N 110.0W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 07/0000Z 31.8N 108.9W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
0 likes
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HurricaneRobert
- Category 3
- Posts: 812
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm
Re: H.HENRIETTE: Discussions-Made Landfall at Cabo San Lucas
She's ready for another category 1 landfall.
0 likes
WTPZ31 KNHC 050846
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
...HENRIETTE APPROACHING MAINLAND MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO LORETO.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
MULEGE.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.
AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNINGS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
SOUTH OF LA PAZ...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...100 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 80 MILES
...125 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN
MAINLAND MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...25.0 N...109.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
WTPZ41 KNHC 050846
TCDEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT TWO WELL-DEFINED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER CIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 AND 65
KT RESPECTIVELY...WHILE 3-HOUR AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 55
KT. A 0124 UTC QSCAT PASS ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 55 KT...
HOWEVER...THE PASS WAS LARGELY OBSTRUCTED BY LAND AND IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW ACCURATE THE VALUES ARE. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE ABOVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD
AT 65 KT.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/11. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST...AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 12 OR SO HOURS WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA. THEREAFTER...A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION.
DESPITE THE WARM WATERS ACROSS THE SEA OF CORTEZ AND A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...THE INTERACTION OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF THE
CYCLONE WITH LAND WILL MOST LIKELY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE LANDFALL OCCURS...THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF MEXICO SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AT FAIRLY RAPID RATE
AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN TWO DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.
BECAUSE HENRIETTE WILL APPROACH THE MAINLAND COAST AT A SHARPLY
OBLIQUE ANGLE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND/OR
LANDFALL LOCATION. A SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
WOULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN LANDFALL LOCATION ALONG MAINLAND
MEXICO. WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL
SURVIVE THE TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 25.0N 109.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 26.8N 110.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 29.5N 109.2W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/1800Z 32.5N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
...HENRIETTE APPROACHING MAINLAND MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO LORETO.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
MULEGE.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.
AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNINGS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
SOUTH OF LA PAZ...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...100 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 80 MILES
...125 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN
MAINLAND MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...25.0 N...109.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
WTPZ41 KNHC 050846
TCDEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT TWO WELL-DEFINED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER CIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 AND 65
KT RESPECTIVELY...WHILE 3-HOUR AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 55
KT. A 0124 UTC QSCAT PASS ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 55 KT...
HOWEVER...THE PASS WAS LARGELY OBSTRUCTED BY LAND AND IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW ACCURATE THE VALUES ARE. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE ABOVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD
AT 65 KT.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/11. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST...AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 12 OR SO HOURS WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA. THEREAFTER...A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION.
DESPITE THE WARM WATERS ACROSS THE SEA OF CORTEZ AND A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...THE INTERACTION OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF THE
CYCLONE WITH LAND WILL MOST LIKELY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE LANDFALL OCCURS...THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF MEXICO SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AT FAIRLY RAPID RATE
AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN TWO DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.
BECAUSE HENRIETTE WILL APPROACH THE MAINLAND COAST AT A SHARPLY
OBLIQUE ANGLE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND/OR
LANDFALL LOCATION. A SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
WOULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN LANDFALL LOCATION ALONG MAINLAND
MEXICO. WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL
SURVIVE THE TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 25.0N 109.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 26.8N 110.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 29.5N 109.2W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/1800Z 32.5N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
0 likes
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421
WTPZ31 KNHC 051144
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
500 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
...HENRIETTE APPROACHING MAINLAND MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO LORETO.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
MULEGE.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...150 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 60 MILES
...95 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN
MAINLAND MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...25.5 N...110.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
WTPZ31 KNHC 051144
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
500 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
...HENRIETTE APPROACHING MAINLAND MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO LORETO.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
MULEGE.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...150 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 60 MILES
...95 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN
MAINLAND MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...25.5 N...110.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
0 likes
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 051432
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
...HENRIETTE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO LATER TODAY...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM
LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO LORETO WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM
LORETO TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO
MULEGE.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...NORTH OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM
...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL
LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE HENRIETTE MOVES INLAND OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...26.0 N...110.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
WTPZ31 KNHC 051432
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
...HENRIETTE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO LATER TODAY...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM
LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO LORETO WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM
LORETO TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO
MULEGE.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...NORTH OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM
...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL
LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE HENRIETTE MOVES INLAND OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...26.0 N...110.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
0 likes
185
WTPZ31 KNHC 051745
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
...HENRIETTE NEARING THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF LORETO MEXICO AND ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...NORTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL
LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE HENRIETTE MOVES INLAND OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...26.6 N...110.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
WTPZ31 KNHC 051745
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
...HENRIETTE NEARING THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF LORETO MEXICO AND ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...NORTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL
LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE HENRIETTE MOVES INLAND OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...26.6 N...110.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
619
WTPZ41 KNHC 052037
TCDEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 65 KT SO HENRIETTE IS HELD AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH. LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A FEW HOURS. RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND WITH
DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO...IF NOT SOONER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TAKING THE CENTER OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE A TRACK OVER SUCH HIGH TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE COULD MAKE IT
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 27.0N 110.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 29.3N 110.3W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 06/1800Z 32.1N 108.0W 15 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
908
WTPZ21 KNHC 052037
TCMEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
2100 UTC WED SEP 05 2007
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 110.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 110.7W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 110.6W
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.3N 110.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.1N 108.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 110.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
WTPZ41 KNHC 052037
TCDEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 65 KT SO HENRIETTE IS HELD AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH. LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A FEW HOURS. RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND WITH
DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO...IF NOT SOONER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TAKING THE CENTER OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE A TRACK OVER SUCH HIGH TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE COULD MAKE IT
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 27.0N 110.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 29.3N 110.3W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 06/1800Z 32.1N 108.0W 15 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
908
WTPZ21 KNHC 052037
TCMEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
2100 UTC WED SEP 05 2007
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 110.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 110.7W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 110.6W
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.3N 110.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.1N 108.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 110.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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000
WTPZ61 KNHC 060012
TCUEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
515 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF HENRIETTE CROSSED THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NEAR GUAYMAS
AROUND 5 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
WTPZ61 KNHC 060012
TCUEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
515 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF HENRIETTE CROSSED THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NEAR GUAYMAS
AROUND 5 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
466
WTPZ21 KNHC 060242
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
0300 UTC THU SEP 06 2007
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
COASTAL WARNINGS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 110.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 45SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 110.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 110.9W
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 30.6N 110.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 32.6N 108.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 110.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
WTPZ21 KNHC 060242
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
0300 UTC THU SEP 06 2007
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
COASTAL WARNINGS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 110.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 45SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 110.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 110.9W
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 30.6N 110.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 32.6N 108.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 110.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
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188
WTPZ31 KNHC 060246
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
...HENRIETTE WEAKENING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
COASTAL WARNINGS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST OR ABOUT
20 MILES...35 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HERMOSILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT
55 MILES...90 KM...NORTH OF GUAYMAS MEXICO.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...
100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL BE SUBSIDING ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. ON THURSDAY...RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...28.8 N...110.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
WTPZ31 KNHC 060246
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
...HENRIETTE WEAKENING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
COASTAL WARNINGS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST OR ABOUT
20 MILES...35 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HERMOSILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT
55 MILES...90 KM...NORTH OF GUAYMAS MEXICO.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...
100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL BE SUBSIDING ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. ON THURSDAY...RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...28.8 N...110.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
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WTPZ21 KNHC 060830
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
0900 UTC THU SEP 06 2007
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 110.2W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 110.2W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 110.4W
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 109.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 33.5N 107.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ31
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 8 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HPC will warn on this system as it's a U.S. flood threat.
WTPZ21 KNHC 060830
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
0900 UTC THU SEP 06 2007
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 110.2W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 110.2W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 110.4W
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 109.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 33.5N 107.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ31
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 8 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HPC will warn on this system as it's a U.S. flood threat.
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087
WTPZ31 KNHC 060832
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2007
...HENRIETTE EXPECTED TO BRING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2
WEST OVER THE STATE OF SONORA MEXICO...AND ABOUT 250 MILES...405
KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EL PASO TEXAS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH AND
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...30.2 N...110.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ31
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 8 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
373
WTPZ41 KNHC 060833
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2007
HENRIETTE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS AND ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. MOISTURE
AND RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
HENRIETTE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ31
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 8 AM PDT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 30.2N 110.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 32.0N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 07/0600Z 33.5N 107.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTPZ31 KNHC 060832
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2007
...HENRIETTE EXPECTED TO BRING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2
WEST OVER THE STATE OF SONORA MEXICO...AND ABOUT 250 MILES...405
KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EL PASO TEXAS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH AND
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...30.2 N...110.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ31
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 8 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
373
WTPZ41 KNHC 060833
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2007
HENRIETTE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS AND ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. MOISTURE
AND RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
HENRIETTE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ31
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 8 AM PDT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 30.2N 110.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 32.0N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 07/0600Z 33.5N 107.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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