Tropical Depression HENRIETTE: Discussions & Advisories
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wxmann_91
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As expected, the environment is perfect for major strengthening, but this storm is slightly too big and bulky. More convection = more hunger for inflow, which ultimately leads to some ingestion of dry continental air from Mexico and stable air to the west. I see this becoming a Cat 1 at best.
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HURAKAN
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WTPZ41 KNHC 022031
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HENRIETTE IS TRYING TO FORM
A BANDING EYE. HOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
HENRIETTE IS LOCATED IN A SEEMINGLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
REMAIN BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND WITHIN A
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DESPITE THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS MUDDIED BY THE FACT THAT HENRIETTE IS A VERY SMALL
CYCLONE CAPABLE OF RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...BOTH UP AND DOWN.
MOREOVER...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO
THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO. SUCH A SMALL CYCLONE COULD UNDERGO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF THE CENTER STAYS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE.
LIKEWISE...IT COULD BE EASILY DISRUPTED BY INTERACTION WITH THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD IT MOVE A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES HENRIETTE
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. BEYOND 72 HOURS...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO
WHERE IT SHOULD DISSIPATE. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD MAKE IT
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 295/4.
THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A LARGE
MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW HENRIETTE TO GRADUALLY
TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD. IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED EASTWARD WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD
SHIFT BEING IN THE UKMET. THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERNMOST
OUTLIER...BUT THIS SOLUTION CANNOT BE IGNORED GIVEN ITS PERFORMANCE
LAST YEAR DURING JOHN AND LANE...TWO HURRICANES THAT SIMILARLY
PARALLELED THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
AGAIN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE GIVEN THE
RECENT MODEL TRENDS AND THE GFDL TRACK.
HENRIETTE'S CURRENT SLOW MOTION DELAYS THE NEED FOR WATCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...BUT THEY MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 18.6N 106.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 19.1N 107.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 20.1N 108.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 21.3N 109.7W 85 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 22.6N 110.6W 75 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W 65 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA
96HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 111.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HENRIETTE IS TRYING TO FORM
A BANDING EYE. HOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
HENRIETTE IS LOCATED IN A SEEMINGLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
REMAIN BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND WITHIN A
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DESPITE THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS MUDDIED BY THE FACT THAT HENRIETTE IS A VERY SMALL
CYCLONE CAPABLE OF RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...BOTH UP AND DOWN.
MOREOVER...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO
THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO. SUCH A SMALL CYCLONE COULD UNDERGO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF THE CENTER STAYS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE.
LIKEWISE...IT COULD BE EASILY DISRUPTED BY INTERACTION WITH THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD IT MOVE A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES HENRIETTE
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. BEYOND 72 HOURS...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO
WHERE IT SHOULD DISSIPATE. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD MAKE IT
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 295/4.
THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A LARGE
MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW HENRIETTE TO GRADUALLY
TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD. IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED EASTWARD WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD
SHIFT BEING IN THE UKMET. THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERNMOST
OUTLIER...BUT THIS SOLUTION CANNOT BE IGNORED GIVEN ITS PERFORMANCE
LAST YEAR DURING JOHN AND LANE...TWO HURRICANES THAT SIMILARLY
PARALLELED THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
AGAIN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE GIVEN THE
RECENT MODEL TRENDS AND THE GFDL TRACK.
HENRIETTE'S CURRENT SLOW MOTION DELAYS THE NEED FOR WATCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...BUT THEY MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 18.6N 106.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 19.1N 107.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 20.1N 108.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 21.3N 109.7W 85 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 22.6N 110.6W 75 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W 65 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA
96HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 111.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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wxmann_91
- Category 5
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Re:
wxmann_91 wrote:As expected, the environment is perfect for major strengthening, but this storm is slightly too big and bulky. More convection = more hunger for inflow, which ultimately leads to some ingestion of dry continental air from Mexico and stable air to the west. I see this becoming a Cat 1 at best.
Well, NHC says it's small. Yeah, it's definitely small in windfield, but I'm saying large in terms of the size of the convective envelope.
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HurricaneRobert
- Category 3
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Re: Tropical Storm HENRIETTE: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
Will she be out of there before Felix reaches the other coast?
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Brent
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Re: Tropical Storm HENRIETTE: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
HurricaneRobert wrote:Will she be out of there before Felix reaches the other coast?
The current forecast has Henriette inland over Baja as a hurricane Wednesday Afternoon while Felix is making landfall in Belize.
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WTPZ31 KNHC 031443
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2007
...HENRIETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS...WITH A HURRICANE WARNING. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO ON THE EAST COAST AND FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 225 MILES
...365 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
HENRIETTE THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...19.9 N...108.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2007
...HENRIETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS...WITH A HURRICANE WARNING. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO ON THE EAST COAST AND FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 225 MILES
...365 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
HENRIETTE THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...19.9 N...108.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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HURAKAN
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252
WTPZ41 KNHC 031442
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2007
HENRIETTE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE THIS MORNING
WITH AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT
IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE HENRIETTE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD PROVIDE MORE PRECISE INFORMATION ON
INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE HAS ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS OVER WARM WATER AND
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR HENRIETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND HAS BEEN
CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
HENRIETTE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 310/10. THE OVERALL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN REASONABLY CLUSTERED
ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN NORTHWARD...TAKING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL
MODEL IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS
ON THE TRACK BUT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT FASTER IN TERMS OF
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARDS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS REFLECTING A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT. ONCE CROSSING THE BAJA
PENINSULA...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. DISSIPATION OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT A 96 HOUR POSITION IS GIVEN SO AS NOT TO IMPLY
DISSIPATION RIGHT AT THE COAST. HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE
CYCLONE WOULD SURVIVE A TRACK OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 19.9N 108.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 21.8N 110.6W 70 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 23.2N 111.4W 75 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 24.9N 111.8W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1200Z 33.0N 110.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
WTPZ41 KNHC 031442
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2007
HENRIETTE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE THIS MORNING
WITH AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT
IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE HENRIETTE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD PROVIDE MORE PRECISE INFORMATION ON
INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE HAS ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS OVER WARM WATER AND
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR HENRIETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND HAS BEEN
CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
HENRIETTE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 310/10. THE OVERALL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN REASONABLY CLUSTERED
ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN NORTHWARD...TAKING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL
MODEL IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS
ON THE TRACK BUT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT FASTER IN TERMS OF
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARDS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS REFLECTING A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT. ONCE CROSSING THE BAJA
PENINSULA...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. DISSIPATION OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT A 96 HOUR POSITION IS GIVEN SO AS NOT TO IMPLY
DISSIPATION RIGHT AT THE COAST. HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE
CYCLONE WOULD SURVIVE A TRACK OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 19.9N 108.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 21.8N 110.6W 70 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 23.2N 111.4W 75 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 24.9N 111.8W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1200Z 33.0N 110.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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HurricaneRobert
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HurricaneRobert
- Category 3
- Posts: 812
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm
Re: Tropical Storm HENRIETTE: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
It looks like it has a pinhole eye.
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Loads of rain... 15 inches mean over last 24 hours.
Code: Select all
077
TCCA23 KNHC 031259
STDWCA
SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC MON SEP 3 2007
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...T.S. HENRIETTE
MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
03/1245 UTC 19.6N 108.1W 310/08 15.0 IN 9.1 IN
LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...
DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER
------------- --------------- ---------------
0 TO 1 DEGREE 5.2 TO 9.1 IN 3.0 TO 8.7 IN
1 TO 2 DEGREE 3.9 TO 6.4 IN 0.6 TO 2.9 IN
2 TO 3 DEGREE 3.2 TO 4.9 IN 0.7 TO 2.2 IN
3 TO 4 DEGREE 2.9 TO 4.6 IN 0.0 TO 1.3 IN
...LEGEND...
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NAME OR NUMBER ASSIGNED TO SYSTEM
(E.G. TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 01, SURFACE TROUGH)
DATE/TIME... DAY OF MONTH AND TIME IN UNIVERSAL TIME
COORDINATES (UTC) IN A DY/HRMN FORMAT
LOCATION... ESTIMATED CENTER OF SYSTEM OR ADVISORY
POSITION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TENTHS
OF DEGREES OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE
MOTION... ESTIMATED DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SYSTEM
IN DEGREES AND KNOTS
MEAN MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE 24-HOUR MEAN MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF
RAINFALL FOR THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED
ON FOUR SATELLITE IMAGES SIX HOURS APART
LAST MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FOR
THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN FOUR
DEGREES (240 NM) LEFT AND RIGHT OF THE
SYSTEM CENTER IN ONE DEGREE (60NM)
INCREMENTS...LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
(1 IN = 25.4 MM)
FORECASTER NELSON
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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918
WHXX01 KMIA 031907
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1907 UTC MON SEP 3 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRIETTE (EP112007) 20070903 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070903 1800 070904 0600 070904 1800 070905 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.8N 108.3W 20.9N 109.5W 21.8N 110.7W 22.7N 111.6W
BAMD 19.8N 108.3W 21.0N 109.6W 22.3N 110.9W 23.9N 111.8W
BAMM 19.8N 108.3W 21.0N 109.6W 22.3N 110.9W 23.6N 111.7W
LBAR 19.8N 108.3W 20.8N 109.3W 22.1N 110.6W 23.6N 111.8W
SHIP 60KTS 65KTS 68KTS 69KTS
DSHP 60KTS 65KTS 68KTS 69KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070905 1800 070906 1800 070907 1800 070908 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.7N 112.4W 26.4N 112.2W 26.8N 111.7W 26.1N 113.1W
BAMD 25.6N 112.5W 29.9N 112.5W 32.5N 108.2W 33.2N 104.3W
BAMM 25.0N 112.4W 28.6N 112.2W 30.1N 109.5W 30.2N 108.9W
LBAR 25.3N 112.7W 29.5N 112.5W 33.5N 108.6W 35.8N 100.2W
SHIP 66KTS 62KTS 34KTS 0KTS
DSHP 48KTS 36KTS 28KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.8N LONCUR = 108.3W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 19.1N LONM12 = 107.4W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 18.5N LONM24 = 106.5W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KMIA 031907
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1907 UTC MON SEP 3 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRIETTE (EP112007) 20070903 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070903 1800 070904 0600 070904 1800 070905 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.8N 108.3W 20.9N 109.5W 21.8N 110.7W 22.7N 111.6W
BAMD 19.8N 108.3W 21.0N 109.6W 22.3N 110.9W 23.9N 111.8W
BAMM 19.8N 108.3W 21.0N 109.6W 22.3N 110.9W 23.6N 111.7W
LBAR 19.8N 108.3W 20.8N 109.3W 22.1N 110.6W 23.6N 111.8W
SHIP 60KTS 65KTS 68KTS 69KTS
DSHP 60KTS 65KTS 68KTS 69KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070905 1800 070906 1800 070907 1800 070908 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.7N 112.4W 26.4N 112.2W 26.8N 111.7W 26.1N 113.1W
BAMD 25.6N 112.5W 29.9N 112.5W 32.5N 108.2W 33.2N 104.3W
BAMM 25.0N 112.4W 28.6N 112.2W 30.1N 109.5W 30.2N 108.9W
LBAR 25.3N 112.7W 29.5N 112.5W 33.5N 108.6W 35.8N 100.2W
SHIP 66KTS 62KTS 34KTS 0KTS
DSHP 48KTS 36KTS 28KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.8N LONCUR = 108.3W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 19.1N LONM12 = 107.4W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 18.5N LONM24 = 106.5W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM
$$
NNNN
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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2007
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS WITH A
HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM
NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST AND FROM NORTH OF SANTA
FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 180SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 108.3W
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.9N 109.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.3N 110.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 75SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.8N 110.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 75SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 25.4N 111.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.5N 111.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 108.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2007
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS WITH A
HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM
NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST AND FROM NORTH OF SANTA
FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 180SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 108.3W
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.9N 109.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.3N 110.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 75SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.8N 110.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 75SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 25.4N 111.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.5N 111.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 108.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
$$
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007
...HENRIETTE NOT QUITE A HURRICANE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM
NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST AND FROM NORTH OF SANTA
FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...295 KM...WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 215 MILES
...345 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
HENRIETTE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...20.1 N...108.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007
...HENRIETTE NOT QUITE A HURRICANE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM
NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST AND FROM NORTH OF SANTA
FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...295 KM...WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 215 MILES
...345 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
HENRIETTE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...20.1 N...108.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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HURAKAN
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- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007
WHILE HENRIETTE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE
DAY...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE TO FIND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT
BASED ON A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 58 KT. THE CYCLONE HAS ANOTHER 24-36
HOURS OVER OPEN WATERS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR HENRIETTE
TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NUDGED LOWER.
HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO CRAWL ALONG WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 315/05. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN
REASONABLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A TRACK THAT TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 36-48 HOURS. DESPITE
THE CLUSTERING...DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN TOO FAST
IN THEIR FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THIS TENDENCY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE
FIRST 36 HOURS. ONCE IT CROSSES THE BAJA PENINSULA...HENRIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A
SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN
48-72 HOURS. DISSIPATION OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED
SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL. WHILE IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE CYCLONE
WOULD SURVIVE A TRACK OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...SOME OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.1N 108.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.9N 109.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 22.3N 110.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 23.8N 110.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 25.4N 111.2W 55 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 29.5N 111.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007
WHILE HENRIETTE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE
DAY...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE TO FIND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT
BASED ON A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 58 KT. THE CYCLONE HAS ANOTHER 24-36
HOURS OVER OPEN WATERS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR HENRIETTE
TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NUDGED LOWER.
HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO CRAWL ALONG WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 315/05. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN
REASONABLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A TRACK THAT TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 36-48 HOURS. DESPITE
THE CLUSTERING...DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN TOO FAST
IN THEIR FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THIS TENDENCY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE
FIRST 36 HOURS. ONCE IT CROSSES THE BAJA PENINSULA...HENRIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A
SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN
48-72 HOURS. DISSIPATION OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED
SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL. WHILE IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE CYCLONE
WOULD SURVIVE A TRACK OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...SOME OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.1N 108.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.9N 109.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 22.3N 110.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 23.8N 110.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 25.4N 111.2W 55 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 29.5N 111.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Storm HENRIETTE: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
374
WHXX01 KMIA 040037
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0037 UTC TUE SEP 4 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRIETTE (EP112007) 20070904 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070904 0000 070904 1200 070905 0000 070905 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.3N 108.6W 21.4N 109.5W 22.7N 110.2W 24.0N 110.5W
BAMD 20.3N 108.6W 21.6N 109.5W 23.4N 109.9W 25.4N 110.0W
BAMM 20.3N 108.6W 21.6N 109.5W 23.4N 109.9W 25.3N 109.9W
LBAR 20.3N 108.6W 21.2N 109.6W 22.8N 110.7W 24.4N 111.9W
SHIP 65KTS 71KTS 75KTS 73KTS
DSHP 65KTS 71KTS 75KTS 60KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070906 0000 070907 0000 070908 0000 070909 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.8N 110.4W 28.4N 108.5W 28.5N 108.6W 28.8N 110.5W
BAMD 27.7N 109.7W 31.5N 107.1W 33.0N 103.2W 33.3N 99.9W
BAMM 27.6N 109.8W 31.1N 107.6W 32.2N 105.4W 32.9N 104.9W
LBAR 26.3N 112.6W 30.8N 111.6W 34.3N 106.9W 35.8N 99.4W
SHIP 69KTS 57KTS 33KTS 0KTS
DSHP 58KTS 33KTS 27KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.3N LONCUR = 108.6W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 19.4N LONM12 = 107.9W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 18.7N LONM24 = 106.8W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 981MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 190NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM
A hurricane at 8 PM PDT?
WHXX01 KMIA 040037
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0037 UTC TUE SEP 4 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRIETTE (EP112007) 20070904 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070904 0000 070904 1200 070905 0000 070905 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.3N 108.6W 21.4N 109.5W 22.7N 110.2W 24.0N 110.5W
BAMD 20.3N 108.6W 21.6N 109.5W 23.4N 109.9W 25.4N 110.0W
BAMM 20.3N 108.6W 21.6N 109.5W 23.4N 109.9W 25.3N 109.9W
LBAR 20.3N 108.6W 21.2N 109.6W 22.8N 110.7W 24.4N 111.9W
SHIP 65KTS 71KTS 75KTS 73KTS
DSHP 65KTS 71KTS 75KTS 60KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070906 0000 070907 0000 070908 0000 070909 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.8N 110.4W 28.4N 108.5W 28.5N 108.6W 28.8N 110.5W
BAMD 27.7N 109.7W 31.5N 107.1W 33.0N 103.2W 33.3N 99.9W
BAMM 27.6N 109.8W 31.1N 107.6W 32.2N 105.4W 32.9N 104.9W
LBAR 26.3N 112.6W 30.8N 111.6W 34.3N 106.9W 35.8N 99.4W
SHIP 69KTS 57KTS 33KTS 0KTS
DSHP 58KTS 33KTS 27KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.3N LONCUR = 108.6W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 19.4N LONM12 = 107.9W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 18.7N LONM24 = 106.8W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 981MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 190NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM
A hurricane at 8 PM PDT?
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007
...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF HENRIETTE APPROACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM
NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST AND FROM NORTH OF
SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST OR ABOUT 175
MILES...280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING
THE BAJA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
HENRIETTE.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...20.6 N...108.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007
...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF HENRIETTE APPROACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM
NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST AND FROM NORTH OF
SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST OR ABOUT 175
MILES...280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING
THE BAJA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
HENRIETTE.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...20.6 N...108.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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