Invest 96L,North Atlantic-Discussions

[CrazyC83]

This will probably get named in January when they do a possible reanalysis

Winds are 30 kt now so it wouldn't be named. But it could still strengthen into a TS (name or no name). It won't get its name in the reanalysis though; it would be called the Unnamed (Sub)Tropical Storm of 2007.

[Coredesat]

This will probably get named in January when they do a possible reanalysis

It wouldn't be named then, either. Not only do systems with 30 kt winds not get named, but they don't assign names retroactively.

The front's too close, this is likely going to get absorbed or become extratropical (exposed LLC quickly becoming elongated with a front developing) before long.

[CrazyC83]

This will probably get named in January when they do a possible reanalysis

It wouldn't be named then, either. Not only do systems with 30 kt winds not get named, but they don't assign names retroactively.

The front's too close, this is likely going to get absorbed or become extratropical (exposed LLC quickly becoming elongated with a front developing) before long.

I doubt they would retroactively classify a TD either. It still may reach storm strength before the front comes in though...

[Epsilon_Fan]

I don't want to waste "Felix" on this It's about to get carried away

[HURAKAN]

Does 96L have 48 more hours to live???

[Coredesat]

It just says "possible cyclone" at this point. That seems to take into account that it's becoming extratropical.

[KWT]

Note the words possible cyclone, rather then possible tropical cyclone, they are keeping the door open for subtropical development, though really this probably should have been tropical today, it looks every bit as good as Barry fif when it peaked. Had it been in the gulf it'd been upgraded at least to a TD, I'm sure of it.

[HURAKAN]

To appeal for development is not looking too good at this moment. Nonetheless, it still has one more DMAX.

[CrazyC83]

To appeal for development is not looking too good at this moment. Nonetheless, it still has one more DMAX.

If it develops I expect them to immediately call it Felix or Gabrielle, since I think it is a 30 kt TD now and they are holding off on it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Lets not be so fast to say that it only has 30 knot winds. Remember Alison 2001 and Barry 2007? They both looked kind of like this one in had winds much stronger then we would of ever thought. Yes its kind of Bear in the woods and we will never know. But these kind of systems seem to me to have higher winds or stronger areas of winds. This system looked better then Barry ever did. Just take that into your thoughts.

Just something to think about this morning.

[Coredesat]

QuikSCAT shows only 30 kt winds. There have been no ship reports of anything higher and Dvorak estimates only support 25 kt. This isn't a (sub)tropical storm, simple as that.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is little in the way of buoy's data out there. Quickscat never shown those winds with the systems I noted. So its not impossible.

[Coredesat]

QuikSCAT did show TS force winds in Barry and Chantal before they were designated. That hasn't been the case with 96L. At any rate, 96L appears to be done for, as the LLC is now very elongated and completely exposed with any convection at least 2 degrees removed from the center:

[HURAKAN]

Vigorous LLC:



If it accelerates more to the NE shear will lessen.

[CrazyC83]

Vigorous LLC:



If it accelerates more to the NE shear will lessen.

If it strengthens to TS-force, then I cannot see it not being reclassified post-season (if they cannot conclude it to be a tropical cyclone now).

[Coredesat]

It's already extratropical, pretty much. I would count out any chance of development barring some major fluke.

[HURAKAN]

It's already extratropical, pretty much. I would count out any chance of development barring some major fluke.

How you know it's extratropical already? Because the convection is away from the center? That's windshear.

[Coredesat]

It's already extratropical, pretty much. I would count out any chance of development barring some major fluke.

How you know it's extratropical already? Because the convection is away from the center? That's windshear.

Because it's losing its warm core rapidly based on the cyclone phase diagrams:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/15.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 12/12.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 12/29.html

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it is being absorbed into the front now. I do think it was a TD for about 18 hours though...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like it is being absorbed into the front now. I do think it was a TD for about 18 hours though...

Me to, I believe it could of even been a weak tropical storm for a short time last night. But the only one that know this is god.