Tropical Storm Felix advisories

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Tropical Storm Felix advisories

#1 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 31, 2007 3:45 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND ARUBA
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO
PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF MARGARITA.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER ST. LUCIA OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 58.6W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 58.6W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 57.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.2N 60.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.9N 64.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.6N 67.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.3N 71.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.3N 78.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.0N 88.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 58.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
Last edited by Brent on Sat Sep 01, 2007 6:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Tropical Depression Six advisories

#2 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 31, 2007 3:46 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2007

...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND ARUBA
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO
PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF MARGARITA.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER ST. LUCIA OVERNIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
58.6 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...295 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...COASTAL VENEZUELA INCLUDING OFFSHORE
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND
CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...11.8 N...58.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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Re: Tropical Depression Six advisories

#3 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 31, 2007 3:51 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING A TROPICAL WAVE
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REPORTED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS UP TO 36 KT. THESE WINDS EQUATE TO ABOUT 30
KT AT THE SURFACE...AND AGREE WELL WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB. THUS THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE
SEASON IS BORN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BECOMING IMPRESSIVE
WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WIND SHEAR NEAR THE DEPRESSION WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COUPLED WITH THE
WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A RECIPE
FOR AT LEAST SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER MOST OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS DO NOT STRENGTHEN THE DEPRESSION...AND CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. FOR NOW...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND
MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/14. GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE
ECMWF SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 11.8N 58.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.2N 60.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 12.9N 64.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 13.6N 67.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 14.3N 71.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.3N 78.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 17.0N 88.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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#4 Postby storms in NC » Fri Aug 31, 2007 3:53 pm

okay is it 14 or 16 MPH
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Re:

#5 Postby senorpepr » Fri Aug 31, 2007 4:49 pm

storms in NC wrote:okay is it 14 or 16 MPH


14KT / 16 MPH
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Re: Tropical Depression Six advisories

#6 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 31, 2007 6:52 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ISLANDS OF ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...TOBAGO...AND GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA...AND FOR ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER ST. LUCIA OVERNIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE ELONGATED CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
59.3 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...SOUTH OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT
170 MILES...270 KM...EAST OF GRENADA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...
26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT
OR ON SATURDAY. BARBADOS HAS BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25
TO 30 MPH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...COASTAL VENEZUELA INCLUDING OFFSHORE
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND
CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...59.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: Tropical Depression Six advisories

#7 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 31, 2007 9:33 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
0300 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...AND TOBAGO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA...AND FOR THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER ST. LUCIA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 59.9W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 59.9W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 59.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.5N 62.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.2N 65.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.6N 72.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 17.5N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 59.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: Tropical Depression Six advisories

#8 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 31, 2007 9:33 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...AND TOBAGO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA...AND FOR THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER ST. LUCIA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...EAST OF GRENADA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEFORE DAWN ON SATURDAY...AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. BARBADOS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33
MILS PER HOUR...54 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 7 INCHES. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...COASTAL VENEZUELA AND THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS...AND THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...59.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
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Re: Tropical Depression Six advisories

#9 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 31, 2007 10:03 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER...MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM FRENCH RADAR ON MARTINIQUE
SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ELONGATION. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 42 KT
EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS DATA ALONG WITH QUIKSCAT DATA AND
SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION
IS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13. THE DEPRESSION
IS CURRENTLY IN A SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF
HURRICANE DEAN...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WESTWARD BUILDING
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST FOUR
DAYS... CAUSING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH 36 HR...THEN SOME SPREAD OCCURS. THE HWRF AND THE SHALLOW
AND MEDIUM MEAN LAYER BAM MODELS FORECAST A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION
TO A 120 HR POSITION NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE TO BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE HWRF SHOWS THE STORM DISSIPATING DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR ITS MORE NORTHWARD FORECAST
TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO BE IN DEEP-LAYER
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FOR
THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING ONCE
THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE EXPERIMENTAL LGEM
MODEL BOTH FORECAST A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...AS NOTED ABOVE THE HWRF DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM...WHILE
THE GFDL WAITS UNTIL IT IS WEST OF 75W TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND THE FORECAST
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THE CYCLONE COULD BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE
STATISTICAL MODELS ARE CORRECT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 12.0N 59.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 12.5N 62.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 13.2N 65.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 14.0N 69.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 14.6N 72.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 15.5N 79.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 16.5N 84.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 17.5N 88.5W 80 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: Tropical Depression Six advisories

#10 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 01, 2007 1:00 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
200 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...DEPRESSION ABOUT TO PASS THROUGH WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...AND TOBAGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA...AND FOR THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER ST. LUCIA EARLY THIS
MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 75 MILES...
120 KM...EAST OF GRENADA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEFORE DAWN THIS MORNING...AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ST. VINCENT RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 39
MPH...63 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 7 INCHES. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...COASTAL VENEZUELA AND THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS...AND THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...12.1 N...60.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Re: Tropical Depression Six advisories

#11 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 01, 2007 3:54 am

TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
0900 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
AND ARUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA... BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 62.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 62.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 61.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.8N 64.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.4N 67.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.1N 71.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.6N 74.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 18.0N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 62.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Re: Tropical Storm Felix advisories

#12 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 01, 2007 3:55 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...SIXTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2007 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
AND ARUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA... BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 45 KM...NORTHWEST OF GRENADA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE FELIX LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75
KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
7 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...62.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Re: Tropical Storm Felix advisories

#13 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 01, 2007 4:01 am

TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW FOCUSED ON A CLUSTER
VERY NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS REMAIN 2.5...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM FELIX. RADAR IMAGERY FROM MARTINIQUE DEPICTS ROTATION IN THE
REFLECTIVITIES...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAVING JUST RECENTLY
PASSED OVER GRENADA. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THIS RELATIVELY
SMALL STORM IS WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
WEAK-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO PERSIST OVER FELIX ALONG ITS PATH ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ACCORDINGLY...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST STRENGTHENING...WITH BOTH SHIPS AND LGEM CALLING FOR FELIX
TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY
FORECASTS COULD NOT BE MUCH MORE IN DISAGREEMENT...WITH GFDL
FORECASTING A HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS AND HWRF BARELY CALLING FOR
FELIX TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL AND IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FELIX HAS SPED UP A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
280/16. MUCH LIKE DEAN LAST MONTH...FELIX IS FORECAST BY NEARLY
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO MOVE IN ALMOST A STRAIGHT LINE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE MODELS ARE ALSO ARRANGED IN A SIMILAR MANNER AS
DURING MUCH OF DEAN...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS AND ECMWF TO THE SOUTH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN
THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD...SO THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH REASON FOR THE TRACK
OF FELIX TO BEND MUCH IF AT ALL TO THE NORTH. THIS NEW FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY....IF ANYTHING NUDGED TO THE
SOUTH.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 12.4N 62.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 12.8N 64.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 13.4N 67.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 14.1N 71.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 14.6N 74.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 81.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 86.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 91.0W 50 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Re: Tropical Storm Felix advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 01, 2007 6:46 am

TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...FELIX STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 8 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT
AND THE GRENADINES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...CURACAO AND FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRENADA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE FELIX LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75
KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 46 MPH WAS
RECENTLY REPORTED IN BARBADOS AND A WIND GUST OF 44 MPH WAS
OBSERVED IN ST. VINCENT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
7 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...62.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 01, 2007 9:45 am

041
WTNT21 KNHC 011443
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007

AT 8 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA IS
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 63.6W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 63.6W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.8N 66.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.4N 69.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.1N 72.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.8N 76.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 18.5N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 63.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 01, 2007 9:47 am

657
WTNT41 KNHC 011444
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007

RADAR IMAGES FROM MARTINIQUE INDICATED THE CENTER PASSED VERY NEAR
GRENADA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ISLAND OBSERVING 1005 MB BEFORE THE
WEATHER STATION STOPPED REPORTING. SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE AND
RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX IS FORMING A SMALL INNER CORE WITH
TIGHTLY-WOUND BANDS AROUND THE CENTER. IN FACT...AN AIR FORCE PLANE
JUST MADE IT TO THE CENTER AND REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 69
KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND 55 KT WILL
BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

ALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SUPPORT A CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM. WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT
IS LIKELY THAT FELIX WILL BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFDL/HWRF ONLY
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS SUGGEST
THIS STORM COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH THE LATTER SCENARIO AND IS JUST A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FELIX HAS BEEN MOVING BASICALLY TO WEST FOR THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND
MY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/16. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO STEER THE STORM A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND
3 DAYS...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW MODELS HAVE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE TO FORCE A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF ARE KEEPING A STRONG
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE WESTWARD MOTION EARLY ON...BUT THEN
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 12.3N 63.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 12.8N 66.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.4N 69.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 14.1N 72.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 14.8N 76.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 16.0N 82.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 91.5W 55 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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Re: Tropical Storm Felix advisories

#17 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 01, 2007 12:46 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
200 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...FELIX NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

AT 2 PM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
VENEZUELA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES...680 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
535 MILES...865 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED AND NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 100 MILES...160 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 7
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...12.5 N...64.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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Brent
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Re: Tropical Storm Felix advisories

#18 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 01, 2007 3:42 pm

TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 65.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 65.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 64.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.1N 67.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 71.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.5N 74.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.2N 78.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.3N 83.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.5N 88.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 19.5N 92.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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Re: Tropical Storm Felix advisories

#19 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 01, 2007 3:43 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...FELIX CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
TONIGHT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST OR ABOUT 310
MILES...500 KM EAST OF ARUBA AND ABOUT 395 MILES...640 KM...SOUTH
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...PRIMARILY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...12.7 N...65.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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Re: Tropical Storm Felix advisories

#20 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 01, 2007 3:46 pm

TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007

THE LAST AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH THE STORM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 70 KT AND THE STEPPED FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER (SFMR) SHOWED 60 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THUS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND COULD BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE AS HINTS OF AN EYE FEATURE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY. ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE UPPER-ENVIRONMENT AND THE WATERS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE VERY WARM. IT IS A LITTLE PUZZLING WHY THE
GFDL/HWRF ARE SO SLOW TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM. SO FAR...THE
STATISTICAL MODELS HAVE DONE VERY WELL WITH THIS STORM...AND THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS. IT IS OF NOTE THAT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...
AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS...IS RATHER HIGH.

FELIX HAS RESUMED A MOTION OF 280/16 AFTER A BRIEF WESTWARD JOG THIS
MORNING. A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD STEER
FELIX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST HINGES ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/HWRF ALLOWS
A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR FLORIDA
AND CAUSES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF FELIX IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN FELIX
ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. IN GENERAL THE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH FROM SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 12.7N 65.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 13.1N 67.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 13.8N 71.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 14.5N 74.8W 80 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 15.2N 78.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 16.3N 83.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 17.5N 88.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 92.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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