Tropical Storm Felix advisories

[Brent]

HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 152 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS
OF 142 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. HIGHER SFMR WINDS WERE FOUND
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...UP TO 163 KT...BUT THESE MAY HAVE BEEN
CONTAMINATED BY GROUPEL. A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THIS DROP YIELDED A
SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT
LEAST 145 KT. AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT. BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND
GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITIES. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE BEING
MADE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE
SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0000Z 13.8N 72.9W 145 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 14.1N 74.5W 150 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 14.8N 78.0W 145 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 81.1W 145 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.5W 145 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W 135 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 91.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 95.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

[Brent]

HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2007

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM LIMON TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMEMLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 73.9W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 73.9W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 73.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.5N 76.6W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.0N 79.8W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.6N 82.8W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.2N 85.2W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.5N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 93.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.5N 96.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 73.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR HONDURAS AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
HURRICANE FELIX MOVES WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM LIMON TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMEMLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES...
550 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 625 MILES...1010 KM
...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER FELIX IS EXPECTED
TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE STATUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25
MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...13.9 N...73.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN



324
WTNT41 KNHC 030256
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PENETRATION OF FELIX AT
23Z...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY...WITH
THE HIGHEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK RAW T NUMBERS REACHING T7.3 AROUND
00Z. GIVEN NO NET TREND IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE
TIME OF THE LAST FIX...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 145 KT.
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...AND FELIX HAS YET TO PASS
OVER THE VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
STRUCTURE...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION. THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE-SCALE FACTORS
TO CAUSE APPRECIABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH
THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT ACCELERATION
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN ONLY VERY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ENOUGH ONLY TO SLOW THE
FORWARD SPEED A BIT...BEFORE FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF ADDITIONAL
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANGE IN HEADING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THE GULF STATES DURING DAYS 4-5. MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SIX HOURS AGO...IS MORE DIVERSE NOW. THE MAJOR
MODEL SHIFT IS WITH THE GFS...WHICH NOW KEEPS FELIX OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD...BUT STILL LIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 13.9N 73.9W 145 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 14.5N 76.6W 150 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 15.0N 79.8W 145 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 15.6N 82.8W 145 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 16.2N 85.2W 145 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 17.5N 89.0W 135 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 93.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 21.5N 96.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[windstorm99]

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
200 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FELIX CONTINUES RAPIDLY
WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LIMON HONDURAS TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA...AND ABOUT 555
MILES...890 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...BUT FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE
STATUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25
MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...14.0 N...74.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2007

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM LIMON HONDURAS EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF
LIMON WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 75.9W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 75.9W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 74.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.5N 78.7W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.0N 81.9W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.5N 84.8W...INLAND OVER HONDURAS
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.9N 87.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.5N 91.5W...INLAND SOUTHERN YUCATAN
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 20.5N 98.5W...INLAND MAINLAND MEXICO
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 75.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FELIX MOVING QUICKLY
WESTWARD...
...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM LIMON HONDURAS EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF
LIMON WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES...
445 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 490 MILES...
790 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON
TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE STATUS DURING
THIS PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30
MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...14.1 N...75.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

FELIX IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA AS IT
MAINTAINS CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT PENETRATED THE EYE TWICE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
EYE DIAMETER HAS SHRUNK TO 10 N MI...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931
MB WAS MEASURED...BUT THAT DROPSONDE DID NOT QUITE CATCH THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION...SO THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 929 MB.
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 155 KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE
WINDS OF 140 KT... BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 145 KT
SINCE THIS MISSION MIGHT HAVE JUST MISSED THE MAXIMUM WIND.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING IN A RATHER STRAIGHT LINE ALONG A HEADING OF
280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 18 KT...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MIGHT EVEN
BE A LITTLE FASTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BASICALLY EXTRAPOLATES
THE CURRENT DIRECTION OF MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH ONLY A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER THAT A MODEST BEND TO THE
RIGHT IS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT ALL OF THE MODELS CONCUR...WITH
THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF NEVER TAKING FELIX OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. WHILE INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES COULD OCCUR AND LEAD
TO FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...I SEE NO REASON TO FORECAST ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE
FELIX IS GUARANTEED TO STILL BE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN. BEYOND THAT TIME THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GREATLY
COMPLICATED BY THE EXACT TRACK THAT FELIX TAKES AND THE AMOUNT OF
TIME IT SPENDS OVER LAND. IF THE HURRICANE MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE OFFICIAL TRACK DURING THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD...IT
WILL SPEND MORE TIME OVER WATER AND WOULD LIKELY MAINTAIN A GREATER
INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT WOULD SPEND EVEN MORE TIME OVER LAND AND
COULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED BELOW. IN ADDITION...THE
FORECAST RESTRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS ON DAY 4 ASSUMES THAT
FELIX WILL IN FACT EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 14.1N 75.9W 145 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 14.5N 78.7W 150 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 81.9W 145 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 15.5N 84.8W 125 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 05/0600Z 15.9N 87.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 17.5N 91.5W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 95.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 98.5W 40 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FELIX CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY
WESTWARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO
THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON
WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
COAST OF BELIZE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...
425 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 425 MILES...685 KM...
EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON
TUESDAY MORNING.

OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE STATUS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30
MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...14.2 N...76.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...FELIX CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND REMAINS A
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE...

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS NICARAGUA BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES...
425 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 365 MILES...
585 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY
FOUR OR FIVE STATUS THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30
MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...14.3 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2007

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS NICARAGUA BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 77.8W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 77.8W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.6N 80.4W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.1N 83.2W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.8N 85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.3N 88.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 77.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTED SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS WHICH COULD
BE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHT WEAKENING. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
MEASURED 162 KT WINDS AROUND 11Z WHICH WOULD STILL SUPPORT 145 KT
AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT TO THAT OBSERVATION THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN A BIT AND THE EYE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED ON
VISUAL IMAGERY. SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY...TO 140 KT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER CORE
PROCESSES ARE TYPICAL IN INTENSE HURRICANES. THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH EVIDENCE OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OR AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT THUS
FAR BUT SUCH AN EVENT COULD OCCUR...AND IT WOULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE
ON THE INTENSITY OF FELIX. HOWEVER THESE EYEWALL CYCLES ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME OR TO PREDICT. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT... IN
TERMS OF WIND SHEAR AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...SHOULD REMAIN
CONDUCIVE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF CAT 4/5 INTENSITY UNTIL INTERACTION
WITH LAND. THE FORECAST INTENSITY AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER WITH
RESPECT TO THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. CLEARLY IF
FELIX MOVES MORE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR FORECAST IT WILL REMAIN
STRONGER AND IF IT MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE NHC TRACK IT WOULD BE
MUCH WEAKER. INDEED...IF THE CYCLONE FAILS TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...IT COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

LATEST FIXES SHOW THAT THE FAST WESTWARD MOTION...280/18...
CONTINUES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST AND SYNOPTIC REASONING ARE
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST FIELDS MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SO
THAT...IF THESE FORECASTS VERIFY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE
UNABLE TO GAIN MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.

DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 14.3N 77.8W 140 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 80.4W 150 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 15.1N 83.2W 145 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 15.8N 85.9W 90 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 05/1200Z 16.3N 88.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 17.5N 92.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1200Z 19.0N 95.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 20.5N 99.0W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
200 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...FELIX HAS WEAKENED BUT IS STILL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND COULD
RESTRENGTHEN...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA FROM
PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON
EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES...
490 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...
AND FELIX COULD RESTRENGTHEN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30
MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EXCESS OF 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...14.2 N...78.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

URRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 79.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 79.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 78.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.5N 81.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.9N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.5N 86.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.2N 88.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.6N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 19.0N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 20.5N 99.5W...INLAND...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 79.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...FELIX HEADED FOR NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES...
405 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
REGARDLESS...FELIX SHOULD REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO ITS
ARRIVAL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EXCESS OF 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...14.3 N...79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$

[Brent]

HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX HAS WEAKENED TODAY. MAXIMUM SFMR
WINDS WERE 118 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO BUT THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT SINCE THEN. THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD OPENED UP TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 115 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES SHOW SOME RECENT
COOLING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS PARTICULARLY ON THE
WEST SIDE...AND IN FACT THE MOST RECENT MESSAGES FROM THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL MAY HAVE CLOSED UP AGAIN.
HIGH-DENSITY FLIGHT LEVEL DATA PLOTS GIVE A HINT OF A SECONDARY
WIND MAXIMUM SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...BUT THIS IS NOT EVIDENT FROM OTHER DATA
SOURCES SUCH AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SINCE THE LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE...THE HURRICANE MAY RE-INTENSIFY
PRIOR TO INTERACTING WITH LAND. THIS POSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. REGARDLESS...WE EXPECT FELIX TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT 24 HOURS
AND BEYOND IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE ARE UNSURE OF HOW LONG FELIX
WILL REMAIN OVER LAND. SINCE THIS HURRICANE HAS A SMALL INNER
CORE...THE LARGE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS COULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
MORE RAPIDLY THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY FAST PACE OF 17
KT. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-DEFINED
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FELIX. THIS REGIME
IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SOME WEAKENING. THEREFORE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
ALBEIT IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET.
OFFICE...NOGAPS...AND GFS DYNAMICAL MODELS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ISLA PROVIDENCIAS SINCE
SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER THAT ISLAND TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 14.3N 79.5W 115 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 14.5N 81.9W 120 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 14.9N 84.5W 90 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 05/0600Z 15.5N 86.6W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 05/1800Z 16.2N 88.8W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 17.6N 92.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1800Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/1800Z 20.5N 99.5W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FELIX APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...
325 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FELIX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE...UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL...AND
SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EXCESS OF 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...14.5 N...80.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FELIX NOW LESS THAN 12 HOURS FROM
LANDFALL...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO
PRINZAPOLKA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER...INCLUDING ISLAS DE LA BAHIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...
235 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A WESTWARD
TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TOMORROW
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE FINAL HOURS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EXCESS OF 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NICARAGUA AND MUCH OF HONDURAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...14.4 N...81.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN



917
WTNT21 KNHC 040249
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO
PRINZAPOLKA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER...INCLUDING ISLAS DE LA BAHIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 81.1W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 81.1W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 80.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.6N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.1N 85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.7N 88.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.4N 90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.0N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 19.5N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 81.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL AIRCRAFT DATA SINCE 21Z...BUT THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME STRUCTURAL CHANGES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
APPARENT IN MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. AN 18Z MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWED THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL HAD FORMED...AND OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS THE INNER EYEWALL HAS DECAYED IN INFRARED IMAGES AND
THE OUTER FEATURE IS NOW MORE PROMINENT. RAW OBJECTIVE DVORAK
NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...UP TO T6.7...BUT I'M
GUESSING THAT THE INNER CORE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS NOT YET
RECOVERED FROM THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...AND IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE
HOURS FOR THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO BE REFLECTED IN THE WIND
FIELD. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 115 KT...WITH SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS.
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE HURRICANE AROUND
05Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/17...AS FELIX CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
THERE IS A LITTLE LESS RIDGING AHEAD OF FELIX AND SO SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE RIDGING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP FELIX BASICALLY ON TRACK. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS FELIX OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH ONLY
THE 12Z UKMET AND 18Z NOGAPS TAKING FELIX BACK OVER WATER. THE 18Z
UKMET...WHICH IS AVAILABLE ONLY OUT TO 48 HOURS...IS ALSO A LITTLE
SOUTH OF ITS EARLIER RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NOW KEEPS FELIX
ENTIRELY OVER LAND. AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE
TRACK FORECAST...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SHARPLY
DOWNWARD AFTER 12 HOURS...AND IF THE TRACK FORECAST VERIFIES THE
SMALL CIRCULATION OF FELIX IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE MUCH EARLIER THAN
SHOWN BELOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 14.4N 81.1W 115 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 14.6N 83.5W 125 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 05/0000Z 15.1N 85.9W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 05/1200Z 15.7N 88.1W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 06/0000Z 16.4N 90.2W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/0000Z 18.0N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/0000Z 19.5N 97.5W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FELIX STRENGTHENING...ONLY A FEW
HOURS FROM LANDFALL...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ISLA DE
PROVIDENCIA....FOR NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO
PRINZAPOLKA....AND FOR HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER... INCLUDING ISLAS DE LA BAHIA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
165 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS IN A FEW HOURS.

REPORTS FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW
NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR WHILE THE CENTER
OF FELIX REMAINS OVER WATER...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FELIX COULD
REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL IN A FEW HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 940
MB...27.76 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EXCESS OF 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NICARAGUA AND MUCH OF HONDURAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...14.3 N...81.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Thunder44]

0900 UTC Tue Sep 04 2007

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas
northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border...and for Honduras from
Limon eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. Preparations to
protect life and property should have already been completed.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Honduras west of Limon...for
the Caribbean coast of Guatemala...and for the entire coast of
Belize.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Isla de
Providencia....for Nicaragua from south of Puerto Cabezas to
prinzapolka....and for Honduras from west of Limon to the
Honduras/Guatemala border... including islas de la Bahia. A
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

Hurricane center located near 14.3n 82.5w at 04/0900z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the west or 270 degrees at 14 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 939 mb
eye diameter 15 nm
Max sustained winds 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt.
64 kt....... 40ne 20se 15sw 40nw.
50 kt....... 60ne 40se 25sw 60nw.
34 kt.......100ne 60se 40sw 90nw.
12 ft seas..300ne 210se 120sw 180nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 14.3n 82.5w at 04/0900z
at 04/0600z center was located near 14.3n 81.9w

forecast valid 04/1800z 14.3n 84.5w...inland
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 0se 0sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 20se 20sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 40se 40sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 05/0600z 14.5n 86.6w...inland
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 40ne 0se 0sw 40nw.

Forecast valid 05/1800z 14.9n 88.7w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 06/0600z 15.4n 90.7w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Forecast valid 07/0600z 16.5n 94.0w...inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 08/0600z...dissipated

outlook valid 09/0600z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 14.3n 82.5w

next advisory at 04/1500z

$$
forecaster Knabb