Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[bigGbear]

The 2 PM NHC Public Advisory stated that Nicaragua has discontinued Hurricane and
Tropical Storm warnings. With hurricane force winds still being reported, how can
they justify that?

[x-y-no]

The 2 PM NHC Public Advisory stated that Nicaragua has discontinued Hurricane and
Tropical Storm warnings. With hurricane force winds still being reported, how can
they justify that?

Huh ... that is pretty strange.

Maybe they figure if you don't know already, a warning won't do any good?

[Derek Ortt]

hurricane warnings are coastal only

[bigGbear]

hurricane warnings are coastal only

Derek,

Thanks for the explanation.

For powerful storms like this - some indication of danger to
inland locations might be helpful - rather than just discontinuing
the warnings for the coastline.

[JonathanBelles]

hurricane warnings are coastal only

Is it only the US that has inland TS/Hurricane warnings/watches?

[Derek Ortt]

I believe so

[Cyclenall]

It appears to be getting larger AKA the rainbands to the North-east. I didn't notice that until now.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

rainband in Honduras is producing rain rates at about 2 inches every 3 hours

[CrazyC83]

I believe so

Cuba does as well, as they officially issue warnings by Cuban province and not by coastal breakpoints.

[artist]

according to Utila the pressure has dropped to 24.9. Would that be possible?

[AJC3]

I believe so

Cuba does as well, as they officially issue warnings by Cuban province and not by coastal breakpoints.

Another point to be made here is that, according to NWS directives, a hurricane or TS warning for coastal locations does not cover inland sections of the counties those coastal locations lie within. If hurricane conditions are expected inland (which has been the case in ECFL every single time since this policy has been in place) then an "Inland Hurricane/TS Warning" must also be issued for the county as well.

While I can see the occasional case where a recurving storm would keep hurricane/TS force winds confined to the coast, personally I think at least part of the general public would find this confusing, or at the very least redundant in the headlines of the zone forecasts.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING...

...HURRICANE WARNING...
...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING....

This would be especially true during a hurricane, since if there was a warning in place for the coast, I can't ever fathom NOT having, at the very least, an inland TS warning.

I'd be interested to hear what others think about this policy.

[x-y-no]

according to Utila the pressure has dropped to 24.9. Would that be possible?

No.

[Derek Ortt]

I'd like it changed so that the coastal warnings included the entire coastal counties

[CrazyC83]

I believe so

Cuba does as well, as they officially issue warnings by Cuban province and not by coastal breakpoints.

Another point to be made here is that, according to NWS directives, a hurricane or TS warning for coastal locations does not cover inland sections of the counties those coastal locations lie within. If hurricane conditions are expected inland (which has been the case in ECFL every single time since this policy has been in place) then an "Inland Hurricane/TS Warning" must also be issued for the county as well.

While I can see the occasional case where a recurving storm would keep hurricane/TS force winds confined to the coast, personally I think at least part of the general public would find this confusing, or at the very least redundant in the headlines of the zone forecasts.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING...

...HURRICANE WARNING...
...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING....

This would be especially true during a hurricane, since if there was a warning in place for the coast, I can't ever fathom NOT having, at the very least, an inland TS warning.

I'd be interested to hear what others think about this policy.

I like that idea. They should drop the word "inland" and issue the warnings for all the counties that are likely to get those conditions; similar to the SPC's Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches. (Although not in a box - they should be defined by the cone of uncertainty for that level of winds transposed 24 hours for warnings; and 36-48 hours for watches)

For example, at 4 pm CDT on August 28, 2005, the advisories would be like this for Hurricane Katrina (the counties would be listed afterward):

Hurricane Warning - Southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, extreme southwestern Alabama (within the cone for the eye and likely to see hurricane conditions at 24 hours)

Hurricane Watch - Central Mississippi, south-central Louisiana, west-central and southwestern Alabama, western Florida Panhandle (within the cone for hurricane conditions at 36 hours AND outside the cone for the eye at 24 hours, with the potential for hurricane conditions)

Tropical Storm Warning - Central Mississippi, south-central and east-central Louisiana, central and southern Alabama, western Florida Panhandle (within the cone for tropical storm conditions at 24 hours)

Tropical Storm Watch - Northern Mississippi, most of western Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, most of Tennessee, northern Alabama, most of Georgia, the central Florida Panhandle (within the cone for tropical storm - but not hurricane - conditions at 36 hours)

[Frank2]

It appears that the NHC may need to issue warnings for the Pacific side of Central America, since it seems Felix is now moving west-southwestward, and, might cross into the EPAC within 24 hours, at it's current rate - let's pray that Felix keeps moving:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[CrazyC83]

It appears that the NHC may need to issue warnings for the Pacific side of Central America, since it seems Felix is now moving west-southwestward, and, might cross into the EPAC within 24 hours, at it's current rate - let's pray that Felix keeps moving:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

At this point, the best case scenario is for Felix to make history and become the first crossover storm to keep its name (it would remain Felix per the post-2001 rules if it remains at least a TD)...

[MissLena]

Would you please reconcile the following for me?

The current (at this writing) NHC track forecast...



...appears to be far south of all but one of the current computer models...



These seem to hold radically different messages for we in south Belize.

Please explain?

Thanks, 'Lena

edit: OK, what the heck is wrong with my image links???
Oh well...you can see the images next to each other here: http://galenaalysoncanada.blogspot.com

[bigGbear]

Would you please reconcile the following for me?

The current (at this writing) NHC track forecast...



...appears to be far south of all but one of the current computer models...



These seem to hold radically different messages for we in south Belize.

Please explain?

Thanks, 'Lena

Lena,

The storm is weakening rapidly. Your main concern should be the rain event that is
shown approaching on the satellites. By the time the center of Felix reaches your
location, IF IT EVER DOES, the winds should not be a threat to any but the weakest
structures. Prepare for the rain and be aware of any flooding potential.

GOOD LUCK!

[cycloneye]

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...
175 KM...WEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE MOVING OVER HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS FELIX
MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

[Derek Ortt]

may be moving slower than 14 mph, unfortunately. Maybe closer to 12