Hurricane Félix: RECON Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

i think from the minobs they are flying the EYEwall or something ... they hurricane force winds should not be doing that .. look at the last set .. it cant be a concentric feature.. that weird.. hmm.. lets see what they say
..

they probably wanted a head wind hence the approach ..

[brunota2003]

In the latest set, does it look like a double wind maximum starting to set up? The obs went from 62 to 57, then back up into the 60's before falling again.

EDIT:

052700 1423N 07514W 6969 03144 0091 +056 +056 067064 069 999 999 05
052730 1424N 07515W 6969 03149 0066 +078 +078 058062 063 999 999 03
052800 1425N 07517W 6971 03150 0091 +064 +064 062055 057 999 999 03
052830 1427N 07518W 6965 03160 0107 +054 +054 061057 060 999 999 05
052900 1428N 07519W 6966 03163 0061 +090 +090 058063 064 999 999 03
052930 1429N 07521W 6967 03164 0052 +098 +098 061063 064 999 999 03
053000 1431N 07522W 6968 03166 0062 +094 +094 064058 059 999 999 03
053030 1432N 07523W 6968 03167 0068 +090 +090 069060 061 999 999 03

Yeah, it isnt well defined, but what does anyone else think?

[gotoman38]

Anybody know when we come out of satellite eclipse tonight?

[CrazyC83]

Looks like an ERC is underway...

[wxmann_91]

Anybody know when we come out of satellite eclipse tonight?

0615Z. That image should be coming out in about an hour.

[Coredesat]

Looks like an ERC is underway...

Nope. Recon found a single eyewall - check the VDM. Convection seems to be warming as Felix moves out of the warm eddy, though there is another warm eddy ahead.

[pojo]

THE NOAA MISSION WAS ABORTED FOR CREW SAFETY.
END OF STORY.

pojo - I was not in anyway implying that they shouldn't have aborted. I understand you are tense with your guys out there, so are we, but please don't jump on me when I had meant nothing other than what became of that! I don't know how you guys do it to begin with!

I want to add they are always in my prayers.

I wasn't trying to pick on you or get down your back.... there is a recon addition here... and wasn't going to elaborate on why NOAA2 came back... I know why, but I can't say. Its between CARCAH, NOAA and AFRES.

Everyone wants to know everything... some things are better left unsaid.

[artist]

Windspeed posted this is the wrong thread -

From the recon discussion thread:

The cloud tops are warmer=less able to transport the winds down.

Wanted to bring it here to avoid getting off topic over there. Sorry, hope my reply of "staying on topic" didn't sound obtuse. To be clear, the cloud tops are plenty cool to represent an intense eyewall. I can assure you winds are getting down to the surface. Yes, the difference between a large band of -65 and a large band of -75ºC cloud tops are certainly negligible, but not to the point of missrepresenting the intensity of convection in the eyewall. The idea is we have also not had a new AVN image since 3:45utc, so the -75C tops may have expanded again, but point on, it's not as if the CDO is falling apart. Winds are getting to the surface. I suspect we will see 145+kt winds in the NE eyewall represented at the surface once they penetrate it.

EDIT: *IF* they penetrate it....

[Coredesat]

Looks like right now they're on the outer edges of the CDO, sampling ambient pressure. That is one tight pressure gradient.

[Brent]

925.5 mb! Strengthening again?

[gotoman38]

It doesn't look as strong on satellite IR - warmer cloud tops anyway - but the lower pressure sure counts - curious what the NE wall winds are coming next.

[Coredesat]

155kt FL.

[miamicanes177]

155kt FL, looks like it's weakened a bit.

155kts in NE quad...this is the highest FL winds ever recorded in Felix. It surpasses the 152kts from sunday afternoon. Pressure also dropped and is now lower than it was sunday afternoon.

[Scorpion]

155kt FL, looks like it's weakened a bit.

How so? 155 kt is the highest FL wind so far

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

155 knots=160 mph at the surface. The nhc upgraded Felix based on surface wind data not flight level. I don't know if this plane has surface data...It might of weaken a little since only one run through the storm was done at the time.

[Scorpion]

This plane doesnt have SFMR, which made the NHC declare it 145 kt. So they will likely maintain at 145.

[Thunder44]

155kt FL, looks like it's weakened a bit.

How so? 155 kt is the highest FL wind so far

If they are using the standard reduction which is 90%, it would be at 160mph. However, earlier SMFR reports suggested could be as low as 95% . That would put winds near 170mph.

[miamicanes177]

sometime the vdm gives a higher fl wind so let's see what it says

[Brent]

If it has weakened it has been only slightly... I still think it's a Cat 5 and I fully expect the NHC to keep it that way at 5am.

[miamicanes177]

brent it has not weakened because the pressure dropped and flight level winds were 3kts higher this time. No SFMR data this time but I suspect 95% reduction is very valid still.