Hurricane Félix: RECON Discussion

[artist]

all the obs are coming in with 03. Surely they know where they are, right? I just don't understand. Would they keep flying if their equipment that would show this failed? Something just does not make sense.

[Coredesat]

Um, if they don't have a SFMR, obviously any value appearing in that column would be suspect.

[artist]

ok - I misread it - the 0 means that lat/lon is All parameters of nominal accuracy
The 3 means -
3 SFMR parameter(s) questionable

so Chacor you are correct. So I guess the readings are all suspect for the sfmr. Weird

[miamicanes177]

Felix requires a 95% reduction factor based on SFMR from the storms history. So far FL winds are 143kts so surface winds would be about 156mph. NHC is conservative however and would likely say 150mph.

[CrazyC83]

It appears the pressure is back around 939mb...

[wxmann_91]

The differential is a bit weak. (only 10 degrees) If the eye warms, we'll know it's a Cat 5.

[Coredesat]

Another pass, 939.3 hPa XTRAP and 134 kt FL winds in NW quad.

[superfly]

Pressure looks like it's increasing as it has passed through the warm eddy and into the cooler waters near shore. I'm thinking high cat 3 or low cat 4 at landfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Pressure looks like it's increasing as it has passed through the warm eddy and into the cooler waters near shore. I'm thinking high cat 3 or low cat 4 at landfall.

I agree, we will know when the satellite gets back,. I'm thinking Felix's cat5 days are over.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Eye has not improved to much...Also the northwest quad is broken a little, but overall looks very good.

We need at least 152 knots in the northeast quad to get it to cat5.

[Brent]

148 kt NE quad... very close to a Cat 5 it appears.

[wxmann_91]

Well, I guess that's it for recon with this storm.

I really think that this is a Cat 5; the reduction will be closer to .95 than .9. But I suspect NHC will go with 135 kt for the operational advisory and then raise it to 140 kt in the post analysis.

[fasterdisaster]

136 knot surface wind
139 knot MBL

This IS a Category Five.

[fasterdisaster]

Oops sorry, the 139 knot was DLM, also there was a 145 knot WL150.

Should(I don't know if it will though) be upgraded to Cat Five based on this, even if only the 136 kt is right, since it is technically barely in the threshold, and for safety purposes one should always round up when there is a level of uncertainty.

[wxmann_91]

I strongly believe this is a Cat 5 now. Convection has continued to deepen and the eye is clearing out well.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on the .95 reduce that this likely has with that data. This is a 160 mph cat5 as clear as day.

[Cyclenall]

I read more then once here that Felix's category 5 days are "over" and then "now this IS a category 5 hurricane right now". I'm not too surprised at this .

I knew Felix could strengthen again like this before the landfall. That eye needs to clear out some more and then it's looking like a CAT5 certainly.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It was before the satellite came back on, and the pressure appeared to have risen one millibar. It was starting to cross out of the super high tchp...It was a very stupid thing for me to say.

This a soild cat5 now.

[Thunder44]

Based on the recon data, I think it's just short of Cat 5 with 150 - 155mph winds. The pressure has not dropped very much. Hopefully another plane gets in there before it makes landfall to see if it reaches Cat 5.

Just saw the 6z models, they initialize at 135kts which is about 155mph.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

FLIGHT FOUR
A. 04/1200Z
B. NOAA3 1506A FELIX
C. 04/0800Z
D. 15.8N 82.7W
E. 04/1030Z TO 04/1330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT