Invest 98L,Central Atlantic

[CrazyC83]

This blob just keeps on fighting...it deserves to get rewarded (even though that could mean another monster hurricane). It needs to survive to about 55-60°W to get there though as that is where I think it could follow in Felix's shoes...

[Extremeweatherguy]

This system looks pretty poor right now. As we have seen numerous times this season though, I think it might try to explode once it gets closer to the islands. We will just have to wait and see.

[CrazyC83]

This system looks pretty poor right now. As we have seen numerous times this season though, I think it might try to explode once it gets closer to the islands. We will just have to wait and see.

My thinking too. The magic line IMO is 55°W. If it can get there, look out! We saw with Felix what potential there is out there, and this will have conditions no worse...

[Ptarmigan]

My thinking too. The magic line IMO is 55°W. If it can get there, look out! We saw with Felix what potential there is out there, and this will have conditions no worse...

Same here. I think 98L has a chance of developing this week.

[windstorm99]

Jeff masters on 98L...9/03/07

98L
Not much has changed with the tropical wave (98L) in the mid-Atlantic, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles since yesterday, so I will mostly repeat yesterday's discussion. The system has a closed circulation and a small area of heavy thunderstorm activity on the west side of the center. Wind shear of 15 knots from strong upper-level winds from the east-southeast are preventing thunderstorm activity from building on the east side of the storm. Several of the reliable models are forecasting that this shear will fall below 15 knots by Tuesday. There is some dry air to the northeast for the disturbance to contend with, but I expect 98L will be able to overcome this dry air and shear and organize into a tropical depression. Thursday is the earliest this would happen. The UKMET is the only model that develops 98L into a tropical depression.

98L is moving slowly westward at 10 mph, and it will be at least five days before it will threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands. A strong trough of low pressure will pass north of 98L Tuesday and Wednesday, which could impart a more northwesterly motion to the storm

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

Guys i can't find the center for 98L!
Is she dissipating or is convection now developing over her center.

[canegrl04]

This one is going to affect the US ,not Central America. After Felix,the waters will have cooled.Doubt another cat 4 or 5 goes that way the rest of the season.Thankfully for those folks

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

Guys i can't find the center for 98L!
Is she dissipating or is convection now developing over her center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

It's there and not moving. You need to loop it to see it.

[punkyg]

Even though 98L looks elongated she starting to get convection on the west and east side of her center.

[storms in NC]

98L don't looks so good but it could be building too. Have to wait a few days and see what happens.

[windstorm99]

NHC 205PM-Discussion....

AN AREA OF LOW PRES...ANALYZED 1012 MB...IS CENTERED NEAR
11N40W. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM HAS BEEN ON A VERY SLOW SW DRIFT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
DISORGANIZED. DESPITE THE LACK OF IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE THERE
STILL IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[PTrackerLA]

IMO 98L looked MUCH better two days ago. I think this one is done, next.

[RL3AO]

IMO 98L looked MUCH better two days ago. I think this one is done, next.

I can't tell if your serious or not.

[Sanibel]

I'll give it a go on persistence. I see signs of organization.

- Sanibel

[HURAKAN]

I can't understand after Dean and Félix fast movement why this one is not moving at all. Just rotationg over the same place. Could a TW come from behind and pick it up?

[Brent]

IMO 98L looked MUCH better two days ago. I think this one is done, next.

I'm really getting tired of this teasing from it. Either develop or go away. As you can see, I'm impatient when it comes to the tropics. It just seems like this area has been in the same general location for 3 days now and is no closer to being a TD than it was then.

[x-y-no]

IMO 98L looked MUCH better two days ago. I think this one is done, next.

I'll agree with your first sentence but not the second one. There's still as much to this disturbance as there has been to many other systems which eventually developed.

[AJC3]

I can't understand after Dean and Félix fast movement why this one is not moving at all. Just rotationg over the same place. Could a TW come from behind and pick it up?

There is precedence for something like this occurring. IIRC within the last 3-5 years there was an instance where there were two depressions (or perhaps one depression and one well organized disturbance) in the central Atlantic - the lead one was moving so slowly that it was caught from behind, and a binary interaction between them took place. I think the net result was that one cannibalized the other and went on the become a TS or 'cane (fuzzy memory, I forget). IIRC one of the NHC discussions mentioned that there was some difficulty in determining which one "ate" which. Someone feel free to elaborate or correct me on this.

[HURAKAN]

That was Lisa and a disturbance back in 2004. They said that Lisa's LLC won the struggle and therefore the result was still named Lisa and not Matthew.

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html