Hurricane FELIX:Personal Forecasts

[Evil Jeremy]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


EJ’s Forecasts
Tropical Depression 6

People in the Windward Islands should currently be preparing for a weak to moderate Tropical Storm.

TD6 is the reincarnation of Hurricane Dean.

After days of waxing and waning, with people saying this system was dead about 2 days ago, Invest 94L has finally become Tropical Depression 6. What is soon to be Felix will eventually follow a similar fate as Hurricane Dean, abit a little more south.

Hurricane Hunters have been in TD6 for a few hours now, and have indeed found a closed circulation, with maximum winds of about 30KT, or 35 MPH, classifying this system as a Depression. Recon will make a few more flights through the depression’s center, and I will update my forecasts with the latest data.

Unlike with Dean, the computer models are in agreement with TD6. They take TD6 on a mostly westward and WNW track through the Caribbean, eventually hitting the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America, both of which are still recovering from Dean. However, the HWRF shows heavy wobbles with TD6, sending it NW one day and SW the next. The current forecast track is based off the models, but giving more weight to the GFDL.

Tropical Depression 6, having just formed, is a 35 MPH system. Intensification should be slow through the next 48-72 hours because of proximity to land, but beyond 72 hours, what by then should be Felix will be able to become a Hurricane, although nowhere as strong as Dean was. At best, TD6 could become a weak Category 2 before first landfall.

Tropical Depression 6, just like Dean, is being steered by high pressure dominating most of the Western Atlantic Ocean. This will take TD6 on a similar but more southerly path than Dean.

TD6 is currently moving Windward at about 15 MPH. This speed and direction should continue for the next few days.

My first cone graphic will be up later tonight.


Interests along the Caribbean, as well as the SE GOM and BOC should closely monitor this system.

Hurricane Hunters are currently flying in Tropical Depression 6. Their data will be incorporated into my forecasts today.

The center of Tropical Depression 6 is currently at around 11.8N and 58.6N.

INITIAL 35 MPH
12HR 40 MPH
24HR 45 MPH
48HR 55 MPH
72HR 65 MPH
96HR 80 MPH
120HR 90 MPH

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

TROPICAL STORM FELIX
Forecast 2#
8-1-2007
1:30am pst/4:30am est

...Tropical depression becomes tropical storm as it moves through the windward islands. 12.2 north/61.2W winds are set at 35 knots.

Shear over the system has weaken from 10-15 knots this afternoon to around 7-10 knots as the shear has begain to decrease around the system. Upper and lower level divergents and convergents looks very good over the system. The Sab/Cimss shows 2.5/2.3 respectfully...Also the system has become much more organized this morning, the recon found 42 knot flight level winds earlier for .8 reduce=38 mph winds. So this system has very likely gained the slight strength.


All flows/winds through out the 250-950 levels appears to be west or west-northwest at most, as there is a subtropical high pressure north of the system. This high pressure area will be the controling factor to our forecast for the next 24-48 hours. The 00z Gfs has nearly good placement, so it is looking useful this morning. In the next 24 hours the system moves west-northwest or even westward. To near 13-13.5 north/65 west at 24 hours. Maybe a slight weakness with the trough going by to the north at the lower levels. The Gfs trys to open it up at 42-48 hour time frame, we don't think so. But it places the system just south of Hati at near 15-15.5 north. Once the weakness(trough) moves eastward a high pressure will build off the mid Atlatnic into the Gulf of Mexico after 48 hours, in fact after 72 hours the ridge builds southward...Pushing the system due westward. Possible landfall if this happens at near 84-90 hours. In the last 2 runs have been showing something very close to this...So we have to watch the gfs closely. The 00z Gfdl shows a west-northwest or just north of west track through the next 24-36 hours, making to 14/68 at 36 hours. As the high starts building north of the system at 60-72 hours it shifts it back westward, but the 00z gfdl shows it up to 16.5/78 west...Just slightly north of the gfs(.5 degree's north). Hwrf takes it northward, just south of Jamica at 72 hours... So it has a lot to do with how much of a ridge forms north of it. Even the Hwrf shifts back westward after that time frame. Cmc is slightly north of its earlier thinking, making landfall near 15.5 north/82.5 west at near 84 hours.

Latest gfdl shows landfall near 19 north at around 128 hours. It is slightly slower. Meaning slightly less ridging to the north of the system. Most of the 06z even through shifted slightly northward are all between 16-18 north. With landfalls between 96-108 hours. The Gfdl like stated above is the closes to our forecast track at near 18-19 north. We will keep the forecast forecast one stated for this forecast. No need to shift back and forth.

Strength

As stated at the top, most things are coming together in its favor. In fact the cirulation has become much better organized and the system has formed a CDO. Banding in all quads have developed over the last few hours. Great outflow...We are forecasting strengthing to hurricane at 48-56 hours. That means we are going against the ship/gfdl strength models. The overall upper levels look to get very favorable once into the western caribbean as the high builds north of the system, the system could form a strong southern outflow channel. As Ivan,Isabel did in 2004,2003. It is the timing on how this system hits the tchp. The Gfdl shows 111 knots at 126 hours, while the ship only shows 96 knots or so. We will forecast a major hurricane at 72-84 hours.

hour and winds
0 35 knots
6 40 knots
12 50 knots
24 55 knots
36 60 knots
48 65 knots
60 75 knots
72 85 knots
84 100 knots
96 100 knots
108 90 knots just inland at near 18.5 north on the Yucatan.

Forecaster Matthew


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


To read forecast one-its in the middle.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97600&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=20

[Berwick Bay]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think there are far too many who are rushing to get on the "Dean Bandwagon". With that said, here goes. I believe the storm will continue W to WNW across the bulk of the Carribean, but I favor the more northern models which take the storm up across the Yucatan Penninsula. (Not Belize, not Honduras, and definitely not Nicaragua). Dean's movement across the Carribean was paralled by the powerful surging west of the Berumuda High to its north. Not quite the same here. I think climo is a better guide. We are now in Sept. (not mid-Aug as for Dean). I look for Felix to slow as it approaches the NW Carribean (perhaps markedly slower) as the storm begins to get on a more WNW to NW course toward the central to Northern Yucatan. Yes there will be High Pressure to its north, but not to the same extent as with Dean. Felix will move slowly across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche--Southern Gulf of Mexico. I don't look for Felix to be nearly as strong as Dean in the Carribean. I think a Cat 2 then becoming a Cat 3 in the NW Carrib would be about right. I look for Felix to lose much of its strength crossing the Yucatan and then entering the Bay of Campeche--Southern Gulf of Mexico as a much weaker storm. However, here I look for the storm to perhaps go stationary or move very slowly allowing it to regain much of its strength. A more N or NW move in the Gulf would not be out of the question. I think that the timetable for this will be slower than that forecast by the NHC allowing time for an erosion or breaking down of the ridge in the western GOM. Instead of five days from now, this may be more like 7 days away. I'll repeat that I think climo should be strongly considered and therefore I look for Felix to be a system to eventually enter the GOM and perhaps affect its Northwestern Coasts.

[Evil Jeremy]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


EJ’s Forecasts
Tropical Storm Felix

Felix continues to intensify as it crosses the Eastern Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Felix is the reincarnation of Hurricane Dean.

Since Felix formed yesterday afternoon and was named early this morning, it has been intensifying at a fast, nearly rapid pace. At 11:00AMEDT, the NHC said that Felix had winds of 65 MPH, and since then, satellite presentation has improved. Assuming Hurricane Hunters have not yet found the strongest winds in Felix, I believe the current intensify of Felix is at 70 MPH with a pressure of 998 MB. Hurricane Hunters are currently flying into Felix, and I will update my forecasts with the latest data as it comes in.

The computer models this morning could give Albert Einstein a headache. The problem is, most of the models take Felix to the Yucatan, but aren’t initializing the storm correctly. This includes some of the most reliable models. On the other side, the GFDL, GFS, and EURO models, along with a few others, take Felix on a more westward path. All of the computer models are being considered with this forecast, but I am giving a lot of weight to the GFDL model and the EURO model, which did so well with Dean and so far with Felix.

Felix is in an area for intensification currently, although a lot of strengthening shouldn’t happen for at least the next 36 hours. This is mainly due to the fact that South America should prohibit strengthening on the storm’s southern side. After Felix passes South America, however, Felix will be in warm waters for a while, so a lot of intensification is possible and likely from about 36 to 72 hours, after which Felix will either make landfall in Nicaragua or along the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical Storm Felix just like Dean, is being steered by high pressure dominating most of the Western Atlantic Ocean. This will take TD6 on a similar but more southerly path than Dean.

Tropical Storm Felix is currently headed westward at about 20 MPH. As stated above, Felix is moving along the ridge of High pressure dominating the Atlantic. Another factor in Felix’s movement is an anticyclone near the storm, which could cause a little WSW motion at times. A westward to WNW motion should continue for the next few days, followed by a motion from anywhere from West to North-West beyond 3 days.

Interests along the Caribbean, as well as the SE GOM and BOC should closely monitor this system.

Hurricane Hunters are currently flying in Storm Felix. Their data will be incorporated into my forecasts today.

The center of Tropical Storm Felix is currently at around 11.8N and 58.6N.

INITIAL 70 MPH
12HR 75 MPH
24HR 85 MPH
48HR 95 MPH
72HR 105 MPH
96HR 120 MPH
120HR 80 MPH

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Hurricane Felix
Forecast 3#
6:30pm pst/9:30pm est


...Felix becomes a hurricane as it moves westward through the caribbean.

...Latest recon shown that Felix has strengthen into a hurricane with flight level winds at 77 knots over the northeastern quad. That is at .85 reduce 75 mph at the surface. That makes felix offically a hurricane, also a 30 mile wide open eye wall has formed with felix. Intense convection has formed into a cdo over the system, with near perfect outflow in all quads. The only 2 things are limiting felix; that is one south America could be pulling some dry air into the cirulaiton and two the tchp is low in this area. This system has strengthen faster then forecasted and stayed south of the forecast. So we have not done super well so far with Felix.

Upper level shear is decreasing over Felix at five to ten knots over the last 24 hours time frame. With the upper level Anticyclone setting just northeast of the cyclone. Divergents and convergents look pretty healthy for our storm. So everything looks very favorable. Only the cool waters close to south America should limit felix during the next 24 hours. Even through with the outflow becoming better organized in all quads. In now with the development of a eye this could easly go cat2 before tomarrow morning. We expect felix to explode once the Anticyclone moves over the system. Also once it clears south america in moves into higher tchp. We are forecasting a strong cat4 by 72 hours. Both ship and Gfdl shows this becoming close if not a major at landfall.


A strong subtropical high pressure has developed north of felix, that are westward flow through out the caribbean at 500-850 millibar level. As you go to 300-500 millibars it only gets stronger...There is no way this will go to far north of west through out the next 24-36 hours. I should of payed closer to the cmc model that moved it just north of the south American coastline yesterday. The Gfs has for the last 6 runs been showing a movement west or west-northwest through out the next 48-60 hours...With a movement just north of the central American coastline. Even so the Gfs does not still develop a well defined system....I think this could easly fellow the coastline of south America through out the next 24-36 hours south of fourthteen north the whole time. It would not suprize me if it stayed south of that. The last 6 runs like noted above have been moving it just north of the central American coast near fifthteen or sixthteen north at 84-96 hour time frame. The Gfdl is showing a west-northwest or even north of that movement through out the next 36 hours. The overall pattern at all levels go's against that strongly...Even through after 48 hours we do have to watch how the western part of the ridge builds over our system. In which could give it a chance to move some what more west-northwestward. But I don't see it getting north of fifthteen north before 60 hours. If at all. The Gfdl then shows the ridging reforming north of it pulling it itno the central American coastline near fifthteen north and 83 west. Which most models are starting to pin point as there landfall. We have no choice but to shift our track to near the core of the model sweet near fifthteen point .5 85 west. Just north of the Gfdl and slightly south of the Gfs. Also just a tad south of the latest hurricane models. Landfall around 78-84 hours.

0 65 knots
6 70 knots
6am pst 85 knots
24 95 knots
36 one hundred five knots
48 one hundred fifthteen knots cat4
72 one hundred 30 knots
96 75 knots


...Note...My one key is not working. I'm sorry. Also none of these are offical like stated above.

[Jagno]

Thanks Berwick, although I pray that if it does come toward the the NW Gulf region as you are forecasting, that it remains a minimal hurricane. There already seems to be some more northerly movements since you posted this earlier today.

[mf_dolphin]

Felix forecasts by members.

[Extremeweatherguy]

My call (as of 10pm 9-1-07)...

Felix will move W or WNW over the next 3 days skimming the coast of Hondorus and then moving into the Yucatan on the border of Belize and Mexico as a Category 4. After the first landfall, the storm should then begin to bend more NW in the BOC and make a second landfall in either northern Mexico or Texas (somewhere between Tampico and Port Arthur) as a borderline Cat. 2/3 storm.

[jhamps10]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Hurricane Felix
12:30am pst/3:30am est
9-2-2007
forecast 4#

...Felix strengthing quickly over the central Caribbean...

...Latest recon shows that Felix is starting to strengthen at a fast rate, the first northeast trip into the eye found 93 knot winds or at .85 of winds around 90 mph. Outflow has developed out of all quads, and the system is likely deeping at 1-2 millibars per hour based on the last few trips into the eye. Latest pressure is now down to 984 millibars as of 12:15 pst/3:15 est. With all this being said felix has a very small core,,,which is likely to start deeping very fast over the next 6-12 hours. After that when it moves into the higher TCHP stated below, we expect Felix to become a cat3 by 24 hours...Fellowed by felix making cat4 by 36 hours. 120 knots is being forecasted for the time frame of 42-60 hours...We don't dare try to forecast higher, even so it could very easly do so. So keep it pretty much the same intill landfall.


To note Felix is now moving over the coolest TCHP in the whole Caribbean, that is less then 40 kj per cm. It would need to cross 13 north to get into the 50-60 kj per cm range. But after 24 hours near 72-75 west you have 80-90 Kj per cm range. That is the kind of Tchp that Dean had to work with. That with low shear of less then 5-8 knots should be a super favorable enviroment for Felix to strengthen in. That is why we bring this storm to mid cat4 strength by 60-72 hours, and it is possible it could be sooner. The latest cimss shear chart has redeveloped the Anticyclone more over the system, so once again the shear is less then 5 knots over the system.


The Gfs has been amazing in its trend over the last 2 days. Not moving to much, just moving north of the coast of Hondorus, then into the Yucatan. The hurricane models mostly show a track just north of Hondorus. The nogaps is the only model that wents to take this close to the yucatan channel. While the gfdl shows a landfall into Hondorus as a cat4 hurricane...We will push our forecast slightly north to just north of hondorus based on the fact that the ridge will likely weaken just enough to allow a west-northwest or slightly north of that. Also for trend sake. Overall the hurricane models show a weakness in the overall ridge during the next 24-36 hours, that pulls the system west-northwestward. Also to note the hurricane models are clustered with in one degree or less during the next 24-36 hours, fellowed by a spread of the models. We make our landfall near 17 north into Belize this forecast...Later range shows a possibel weakness over Texas starts forming at near 114-120 so it is not out of the possible that this could be starting to feel that once into the BOC. How this forecast turns out is how strong and how fast can it move eastward.

0 80 knots 12.45 north/67.5 west
6 85 knots 12.8 north/69 west
12 90 knots 13.2 north/70.2 west
24 105 knots 13.5 north/73.5 west
36 115 knots 14.5 north/77.3 west
48 120 knots 15.8 north/81.2 west
60 120 knots 16.0 north/84.6 west
72 115 knots 16.8 north/87.2 west
96 75 knots 17.5 north/89.2 west
108 55 knots 18.5 north/91.4 west
120 65 knots 19.8 north/93 west


Forecaster Matthew

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[PhillyWX]

As always, my discussion is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Discussion #1, Saturday AM: http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... bbean.html

Discussion #2/Forecast #1, Sunday AM:
http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... nsify.html

Tracking Felix:
http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... felix.html

Current Forecast: landfall near the NE tip of Honduras, 135-145 mph winds, with final landfall in Belize.

[Evil Jeremy]

EJ’s Forecasts
Advisory 3

I recommend that the Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica be discontinued. While the island might get some wind and rain, Jamaica should not receive TS winds. I also recommend that the Hurricane Watch for the Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao be upgraded to warnings immediately.

The dreaded pinhole eye has arrived.

Early this morning, Recon found winds of about 100 MPH in Hurricane Felix. Since then, Hurricane Hunters have found winds to support a Category 3 hurricane. With the new data, coupled with a great appearance on satellite, I have raised the winds to 115 MPH, although the winds could still be stronger than this.

The lowest pressure measured by the Hurricane Hunters in this morning’s flight was 981 MB, although I estimate the pressure is at around 975 MB.

Hurricane Felix has formed a pinhole eye, with normally means that a hurricane is intensifying, possibly rapidly. I expect Felix to become a Category 4 hurricane by tonight or early tomorrow morning, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Felix become a Category 5 hurricane at one point.

Major Hurricane Felix is currently heading WNW at about 19 MPH. This westward to WNW motion should continue through the next 72 hours. After that, Felix’s motion and path will be decided by how strong the ridge in the Gulf of Mexico will be after 72 hours.

Over the course of this morning, Felix has been wobbling to the NW, while still continuing on a general WNW motion.

The computer models are agreeing very well this morning, with them showing a general path to the WNW over the next few days ending with a landfall close to Belize. While the models are agreeing on a landfall point and what happens after that, they are generally disagreeing on Felix through 72 hours. The GFDL, which was previously the southern outlier, has now moved north with the other models, such as the UKMET. These changes will be incorporated into my updated cone later today.

Interests along the Caribbean, as well as the BOC and the Southern GOM should closely monitor this system.

Hurricane Hunters will fly into Major Hurricane Felix again later today. Their data will be incorporated into my forecasts today.

The center of Major Hurricane Felix is currently at around 13.0N and 69.3N.

INITIAL 115 MPH
12HR 125 MPH
24HR 135 MPH
48HR 150 MPH
72HR 130 MPH *Inland
96HR 80 MPH *Inland
120HR 95 MPH

[Cyclone1]

Cyclone1's personal forecast. For this, I've created a new map. It looks confusing, but it's relativle easy to decipher.

Yellow = coastline that could be lightly impacted, surf, light rian
Red= coastline that could be moderately impacted, high surf, light wind, heavy rain
Dark red= coastline that could be heavily impacted, high winds, surge heavy rain
Fushia = coastline that could be heavily damaged. hurricane/Major hurricane force winds, high surge heavy rain, flooding
White = coastline could be extremely damaged. Major hurricane force winds, dangerous surge, high winds, higher gusts, heavy rain, flooding, heavy wind damage, eye expected to cross in this vicinity.
Orange = predicted path



I'll make more of these as Felix continues.

[Cyclone1]

Ahh, geez, I forgot the west Yucatan coast. Oh well.

[Aric Dunn]

here do your forecast here and have them compared to the nhc average and others and see how well you stand up to the NHC and others

http://www.stormpulse.com/

http://www.stormpulse.com/forecasting/top#position

its great! read through the second link and then go to the main age just under the tracking map and do you own forecast points and intensity !!!

there system will keep track of everything and do all the calculations its fun try it

[Extremeweatherguy]

My latest prediction (as of 2pm 9-2-07)...

I think a general WNW motion will continue with major hurricane Felix bringing him just north of Hondorus and then into northern Belize near the border of the southern Yucatan of Mexico early next week as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. Unfortunately, this track will mean lots of heavy rain in areas that DO NOT need it. Beyond the Yucatan, I believe Felix will emerge into the BOC by Wednesday as a Category 1/2 hurricane moving WNW or NW. Depending on the amount of northward bend, I think a final landfall somewhere between Tampico, Mexico and Galveston, TX is the best bet (likely closer to the southern end of that cone)...probably as a Category 2 or weak Category 3 storm.

This latest forecast is basically un-changed from my prediction last night, expect for the fact that I have narrowed down the cone for the final landfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hurricane Felix
3pm pst/6pm est
9-2-2007
forecast 5#


...Felix moving west-northwest and becomes a cat4 hurriacane...

Recon found Felix had winds of 132 knots at flight level a hour or so ago. That equals around 135 mph at the surface, the system has a well defined eye with reds over most of the system. In fact the system has just moved over the higher tchp as talked about last night. We expect this storm to strengthen to 130 knot s over the next 12 hours, and possibly into a cat5 by 24-36 hours. Only thing that could slow this down is if the anticyclone keeps moving away from the system. In which case there is a sign that some southly shear off south America could help keep this in check; that would happen if the upper level Anticyclone keeps moving away from the core of the system. Also EWRC otherwise are the only thing appears to slow it down. Currently the huricane has a clear eye with reds all the way around. Outflow is great or perfect in all quads. This system reminds me of Dean,Ivan, even a little of Rita.

...Upper level Anticyclone is only slightly removed to the northwest of the tropical cyclone as of this moment. Shear levels over the cyclone are around 4-7 knots at this time...Which is favorable for strengthing.


The strong high at 300-850 millibars has remained north of our cyclone. Even through there has been a slight weakness passing north of the high pressure as is a trough. So a west-northwest movement of the cyclone. The high pressure area should remain pretty soild over the next 24-36 hours...We do have a fly in the oil at this time a possible low pressure system forming off GA coastline around 24-36 hours...We have to watch this incase it can form a weakness into the ridge. This forms enough of a weakness to move the system north of Hondurus at 56-66 hr time frame. But that is at the surface, at the upper levels the high pressure builds or remains at just north of Cuba at the time frame stated above. So a movement just north of Hondurus appears likely...Heck the Gfs has been forecasting something like this for the last 8 or so runs. Pretty good. Ridge of high pressure starts to weaken over it after 60 hours, as trough starts moving into the eastern Part of the gulf of Mexico. This pulls the system into the BOC around 100-108 hour time frame. How sharp and developed this trough gets will tell how far north this cyclone makes it into the gulf. 18z New Gfs shows the system not making it as far north,,,only around 15.5-16 north and making a clear landfall in Hondurus again. Gfdl has been going back and fourth...It has all to do with how strong the weakness,highs stet up to be. Most hurricane models appear to be near were they where this morning. So I don't feel like shifting back and forth with each forecast,if anything a slight shift south...So mainly the forecast track issued this morning will do. Any shift south of this forecast track will mean that falix has made landfall in Hondurus...As a possible cat4 or cat5 hurricane. If you are there get out now...



0 120 knots
6 130 knots
12 135 knots
24 140 knots
36 145 knots
48 120 knots if it remains north of Hondurus???
60 115 knots making landfall on Yucatan...
72 55 knots inside Yucatan
96 60 knots possibly back into BOC.

Forecaster Matthew

[PhillyWX]

Updated Discussion #3 (see disclaimer at top of thread):

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... elize.html

Forecast landfall #1: Between Monkey River Town and Belize City, Belize (Honduras will be a very close call, however and it could be over NE Honduras for a few hours on Tuesday PM)

Forecast landfall intensity: 145-160 mph winds if no landfall in Honduras. Weaker at Belize landfall if Honduran landfall occurs.

[PhillyWX]

Updated Discussion #4 (see disclaimer at top of thread):

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... et-to.html

First Landfall forecast #3: Between Honduran/Nicaraguan border and Puerto Lempira, Honduras
First Landfall intensity: 145-160 mph winds
First Landfall timing: Tuesday between 4 and 8 AM, EDT US

Second Landfall forecast: Between Placencia, Belize and Punta Gorda, Belize
Second Landfall intensity: 70-85 mph winds (rain will be the story, not wind, with second landfall)
Second landfall timing: Wednesday between 6 AM and Noon, EDT US

[Extremeweatherguy]

10am 9-3-07 update...

Felix has begun to move more westward (as compared to WNW) and because of this, the models have shifted well south. Due to the southward trend, I am going to reluctantly move my forest landfall areas further south. I now believe that the storm will make a landfall along the northern coast of Hondorus and then a second one in Belize. Beyond Belize I think Felix will emerge into the BOC and make a second landfall somewhere in Mexico. Texas is not out of the woods quite yet, but based on the latest guidance and storm movement, things are definitely looking better. I will update this again later if need be.