Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[storms in NC]

So what is going on U-all is it or not

[wxman57]

Hi folks!

00Z model maps I do initialized Invest 99L as a Tropical Storm (note symbol in the 00Z model map below)

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/AL992007.png

When this occurs, TPC typically goes with named status at with the pending F/A package. Looks like Gabby is here.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

Not surprising since recon found 40kt surface winds. 00Z models have it initialized at 40kts. That means if the LLC ever gets better-defined it'll be Gabrielle on the first advisory (unless it weakens before then).

Model tracks look good, a North Carolina clipper then out to sea, probably a moderate TS at the rate it's going when it passes NC.

[fox13weather]

Hi folks!

00Z model maps I do initialized Invest 99L as a Tropical Storm (note symbol in the 00Z model map below)



When this occurs, TPC typically goes with named status at with the pending F/A package. Looks like Gabby is here.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

looks like a big black box.

It is dark in the western Atlantic.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not sure... it is being carried as a 40KT area of low-pressure, not as a TS... at least as of yet

[Scott_inVA]

what do you think about intensity scott?

I'd imagine there indeed is debate at TPC as to wheter or not to pull the trigger tonight based on all the recon data. Can't argue it remains closed off so if they go straight to TS Gabrielle, it'll be at 40 knots.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at IR 2, low level center looks much better defined, near 30.3ºN and 71.5ºW, with a new blob of convection firing just North of the center.

Maybe this is Derek's convective burst to push this over the edge.

[Scott_inVA]

Hi folks!

00Z model maps I do initialized Invest 99L as a Tropical Storm (note symbol in the 00Z model map below)



When this occurs, TPC typically goes with named status at with the pending F/A package. Looks like Gabby is here.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

looks like a big black box.

It is dark in the western Atlantic.

ROFL

Embedded image is .png format...some browers do do that so here is the 00Z in jpg: http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/AL992007.jpg

Should be cool for all.

Scott

[HURAKAN]

SHIP S 0000 32.40 -71.90 212 15 60 45.1 - 9.8 12.0 - - 30.01 -0.06 78.8 80.6 70.7 12.4 7 - 8.2 14.0 90

45 knts. This could be from the storm itself or because of gradient pressure.

[Brent]

If it is Gabby at 11 then I say THANK GOD. It will make this situation so much better, we'll have a track from the NHC, their thoughts on intensity and such, it's much better. Storm shouldn't be too much of a wind issue.

[Scott_inVA]

Hi folks!

00Z model maps I do initialized Invest 99L as a Tropical Storm (note symbol in the 00Z model map below)

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/AL992007.png

When this occurs, TPC typically goes with named status at with the pending F/A package. Looks like Gabby is here.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

Not surprising since recon found 40kt surface winds. 00Z models have it initialized at 40kts. That means if the LLC ever gets better-defined it'll be Gabrielle on the first advisory (unless it weakens before then).

Model tracks look good, a North Carolina clipper then out to sea, probably a moderate TS at the rate it's going when it passes NC.

Yeah, think 40Kt is what they'll go with. I'll bet there's some haggling going on there as there is not one single center of circulation.

Scott

[Brent]

maybe Shannon can correct me if I am wrong, but there are very few nighttime invest missions. I believe the last one was Erin in 1995, and that wa sonly because the system was impacting the Bahamas and warnings needed to be issued the second it became a tropical storm. I am not certain it is 100% that recon will fly tonight, but if I'm wrong, please let me know Shannon

It is slated to take off at 10:30. I don't see them cancelling especially since all it needs is a well-defined LLC and it's a TS. But yeah you're right, nighttime invest missions are extremely rare. I think this will be an exception.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

...Recon did not find a closed defined LLC through out its mission. But it did find surface winds up to 42-45 knots. Also a broad LLC...Based on tonight satellite, I would place the "LLC" or the base area to watch around 30.5/71.5...Near the area of convection blowing up. Also the ULL is moving west-southwestward away form our system...So shear levels have droped and should be getting more favorable by tomarrow morning. I expect that recon tonight may find us a tropical storm later tonight. The high reminds very strongly to the north of the system, even so the system kind of got pushed north of 30 today. I still a landfall into NC in around 36-42 hours...This could develop into a interesting storm as it moves over the gulf stream...Also the high should be strong enough that the trough moving to its north should not weaken it enough to pull it out to see before it makes landfall.

[storms in NC]

If it is Gabby at 11 then I say THANK GOD. It will make this situation so much better, we'll have a track from the NHC, their thoughts on intensity and such, it's much better. Storm shouldn't be too much of a wind issue.

From the look of the model track not going to be much of any thing. Rain or wind. It curves out to sea missing the coast.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[philnyc]

Latest:



I'M A MODERATOR!!!

CONGRATS, HURAKAN!

[windstorm99]

Whether this is a TS is up for grabs but in my opinion this still does not look to great...Models seem to be trending on keeping the worst weather of what ever this is right now of the coast.Adrian

[OuterBanker]

Bath an bed to face another day. BTW, looks like somebody piled the spagetti on eastern NC. Maybe I should gas up in the am.

[Scott_inVA]

...Recon did not find a closed defined LLC through out its mission. But it did find surface winds up to 42-45 knots. Also a broad LLC...Based on tonight satellite, I would place the "LLC" or the base area to watch around 30.5/71.5...Near the area of convection blowing up. Also the ULL is moving west-southwestward away form our system...So shear levels have droped and should be getting more favorable by tomarrow morning. I expect that recon tonight may find us a tropical storm later tonight. The high reminds very strongly to the north of the system, even so the system kind of got pushed north of 30 today. I still a landfall into NC in around 36-42 hours...This could develop into a interesting storm as it moves over the gulf stream...Also the high should be strong enough that the trough moving to its north should not weaken it enough to pull it out to see before it makes landfall.

We've "been there, done that" before with NHC. Sometimes there will be a moderately broad closed off circulation but a center is not well defined, nor is it wrapping up and in. That may be enough to take the finger off the trigger. However, nothing is static out there and a decent burst of thunderstorms will tighten up the center in a hurry...so...my guess is: 11PM EDT Gabby at 40 knots.

Believe it or not, Friday night *can* make a difference in on the fence calls


Scott

['CaneFreak]

...Recon did not find a closed defined LLC through out its mission. But it did find surface winds up to 42-45 knots. Also a broad LLC...Based on tonight satellite, I would place the "LLC" or the base area to watch around 30.5/71.5...Near the area of convection blowing up. Also the ULL is moving west-southwestward away form our system...So shear levels have droped and should be getting more favorable by tomarrow morning. I expect that recon tonight may find us a tropical storm later tonight. The high reminds very strongly to the north of the system, even so the system kind of got pushed north of 30 today. I still a landfall into NC in around 36-42 hours...This could develop into a interesting storm as it moves over the gulf stream...Also the high should be strong enough that the trough moving to its north should not weaken it enough to pull it out to see before it makes landfall.

We've "been there, done that" before with NHC. Sometimes there will be a moderately broad closed off circulation but the center is not well defined, nor is it wrapping up and in. That may be enough to take the finger off the trigger. However, nothing is static out there and a decent burst of thunderstorms will tighten up the center in a hurry...so...my guess is: 11PM EDT Gabby at 40 knots.

Believe it or not, Friday night *can* make a difference in on the fence calls

Scott

Scott

I agree...what have they got to lose? I mean....people need to be prepared and if we go ahead and issue advisories and watches and warnings now...people will be prepared...if we wait until tomorrow...people may not be ready in case this thing goes KABOOM overnight...its happened before and it may happen again...who knows?

'CaneFreak

[storms in NC]

What is going to happen is you have all these people that have beach homes and boats that will wait till they call it then they will go down to the beach to tie up the boat and board up the homes. But you are not talking about to much time here. You will have more people on the beach and can't get off.