Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Global & BAM Models

[cycloneye]

I am taking a break for tonight.Tommorow will be another day of watching,looking at models,and looking to the east at that wave.

[GeneratorPower]

Have a great night! Time for an ERC for cycloneye.

[brunota2003]

Alright then Luis, guess we'll see tomorrow then, huh? Things ought to start getting less boring tonight and really ramp up tomorrow.

[skufful]

Don't know where all the model watchers are, or how to change the title, but the 00 GFS 78 hour shows a pretty good smack on NC.

[skufful]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

Did this work?

[skufful]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

[skufful]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

[skufful]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

[skufful]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

.....and she's off

I have no clue if this works. I figure most of y'all know how to find this. Hopefully it worked for those who didn't.

TCW

[brunota2003]

Yeah, here is the 84 hour one:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

[miamicanes177]

Code: Select all

789
WHXX04 KWBC 060522
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST    99L

INITIAL TIME   0Z SEP  6

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            29.5             69.8            75./ 8.9
   6            29.5             69.2            88./ 5.5
  12            29.6             68.8            69./ 3.5
  18            29.6             68.8           129./  .6
  24            29.5             69.5           259./ 6.0
  30            29.3             70.4           262./ 7.9
  36            29.0             71.5           256./10.2
  42            29.1             72.1           275./ 5.3
  48            29.6             72.9           301./ 8.2
  54            30.3             73.8           307./10.9
  60            31.0             75.0           301./12.5
  66            31.6             76.0           300./10.1
  72            32.1             76.8           302./ 8.7
  78            32.6             77.7           301./ 8.9
  84            33.3             77.8           349./ 6.9
  90            34.2             78.0           349./ 9.1
  96            34.8             78.0           358./ 6.3
 102            35.3             77.4            49./ 7.3
 108            36.2             76.5            47./10.8
 114            36.8             75.8            52./ 8.5
 120            37.3             74.7            65./ 9.8
 126            38.2             73.6            50./12.6


Further west and fully inland

[brunota2003]

That has the center making landfall and moving by just to my west by two counties. I'd be well within the RFQ then. But it has to survive tonight and tomorrow first.

[Thunder44]

0z GFDL, moves over Wilmington, NC on Sunday but it only as a TS:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Thunder44]

Other 0z models:

0z HWRF:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

0z UKMET:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

0z CMC:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html

0z NOGAPS:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGA ... sloop.html

0z ECMWF:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

After looking at 0z models tonight, all of them still develop this system and either having make landfall along the NC or SC coasts sometime Sunday and then moving up the east coast (except the ECMWF, which dissaptes it after making landfall over SC). It may not be as strong as looked earlier in the week, but should still see a TS or minmal hurricane out this storm. Don't expect too much development this system, until high pressure builds over it on Friday.

[HURAKAN]

483
WHXX01 KWBC 060737
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0737 UTC THU SEP 6 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070906 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070906 0600 070906 1800 070907 0600 070907 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.5N 69.5W 29.5N 69.4W 29.7N 70.1W 30.6N 71.4W
BAMD 29.5N 69.5W 30.3N 69.1W 30.9N 69.7W 31.8N 71.2W
BAMM 29.5N 69.5W 29.6N 69.2W 30.0N 69.6W 30.9N 70.8W
LBAR 29.5N 69.5W 29.9N 68.2W 30.4N 67.1W 30.7N 66.3W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070908 0600 070909 0600 070910 0600 070911 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.0N 72.6W 35.2N 74.3W 38.5N 72.9W 40.4N 69.9W
BAMD 33.1N 73.1W 36.2N 75.5W 39.6N 70.8W 38.4N 63.8W
BAMM 32.5N 72.0W 36.2N 73.7W 40.0N 70.3W 40.8N 65.3W
LBAR 31.2N 64.8W 31.7N 61.8W 32.0N 58.9W 31.9N 55.3W
SHIP 52KTS 59KTS 52KTS 34KTS
DSHP 52KTS 59KTS 52KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.5N LONCUR = 69.5W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 29.3N LONM12 = 70.5W DIRM12 = 73DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 29.2N LONM24 = 72.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[hurricanetrack]

I tell you what, looking at the cloud shots, it looks terrible. But that low is not moving east anymore in my opinion. Looks to be just sitting there or may a hair southeast- maybe.

Also, looking at the latest NAM and GFS, this has about 24 more hours of getting its butt kicked and kicked hard, then the upper levels become favorable. We see a well define low level circulation in satellite and on that recent QS posted somewhere....it is hard for me to believe that ALL of the global models will bust and NOTHING will come of this system. Not impossible for me to believe, just difficult.

This time tomorrow morning, we will know whether it is gone or coming to get us!

[Thunder44]

6z GFDL still develops it and takes over Wilmington, NC again. This time it's a Cat 1 hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[brunota2003]

Looks to be just about stalled out.

[boca]

Looks to be just about stalled out.

Now that its stalled lets see if we can get some banding like features out of 99L. Right now it looks like a typical winter like cold front with a low attached to it.

[storms in NC]

It does look like it is wrapping some moister around it now. But is it go to go with the frontal boundary