Severe Tropical Storm DANAS in WPAC-Discussions & Imagery

[CrazyC83]

Just noticed it on NRL and didn't see a thread for it. Looks pretty good.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.0N
165.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 161.8E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 050223Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC
IS INTRODUCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MASS INFLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FUELING DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND A RELAXATION
OF UPPER LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER COULD ALLOW CONVEC-
TION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE LESS THAN
OPTIMAL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[Coredesat]

Looks much better than it did over the past few days, the convection has really gotten its act together. The IR2 loop shows that the ULL to the NW doesn't seem to be very strong; if it dissipates, this should have a much easier time.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow this is impressive...Worth watching closely.

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.7N
161.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 161.2E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 052101Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE INCREASED MID
LEVEL TURNING IN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC REMAINS PARTIALLY
EXPOSED FROM THE CONVECTION. A 051917Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA
OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COINCIDENT WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION, SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THESE CONVERGENT LINES ARE
BEGINNING TO WRAP TOWARD THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW AMPLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL INFLOW
OVER THE LLCC, WHICH MAY IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Chacor]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 24.1N 160.8E NORTHWEST OF WAKE MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[alan1961]

Yes Joe Bastardi mentioned this in is tropical update this morning..said it would head towards the phillipines down the road.

[HURAKAN]

Yes Joe Bastardi mentioned this in is tropical update this morning..said it would head towards the phillipines down the road.

Are you sure he mentioned that 97W would move SW to hit the Philippines? Because the system is already at 24ºN or more.





There you can see 97W to the right, Fitow to the north, and the Philippines to the left.

[alan1961]

Yes Joe Bastardi mentioned this in is tropical update this morning..said it would head towards the phillipines down the road.

Are you sure he mentioned that 97W would move SW to hit the Philippines? Because the system is already at 24ºN or more.





There you can see 97W to the right, Fitow to the north, and the Philippines to the left.

Yes he was saying 97W was going to move in a similar way to what 99L is forecast to do with the big high pressure over it in the western pacific..
I can't see it getting over towards the phillipines and going wsw like you say..more like a track
what Fitow is taking would be more akin.

[WindRunner]

Still don't like this new format, but here it is. TD per JMA forecast into 40kt TS in 24hrs.


<Analyses at 06/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N24°00'(24.0°)
E160°30'(160.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 07/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°00'(27.0°)
E157°00'(157.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 280km(150NM)

[Chacor]

Old format is still used in the WMO bulletins.

281
WTPQ21 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 24.0N 160.5E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 27.0N 157.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[P.K.]

TS strength forecast within 12 hours. Pressure is down 2hPa on the last advisory.

FKPQ31 RJTD 061800
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070906/1800Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: TD
NR: 2
PSN: N2435 E15955
MOV: WNW SLOWLY
C: 1004HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 07/0600Z N2550 E15820
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 07/1800Z N2830 E15620
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 40KT
NXT MSG: 20070907/0000Z =

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

WTPN21 PGTW 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.5N 159.5E TO 28.7N 155.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 25.8N 158.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.0N
160.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 158.3E, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
PARTIAL 061835Z SSMI PASS INDICATE A CONSOLIDATED, YET PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS (061851Z) ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THE CENTER HAS TIGHTENED, AND IS
SHOWING WINDS OF 20-25 KTS NEAR THE CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE DISTURBANCE TO
REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH. INFLOW FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE IS PREVENTING CONVECTION FROM
FORMING OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 072200Z.//
NNNN

[HurricaneBill]

Looks rather sheared.

[Chacor]

No kidding.

Looks like Japan should be preparing for another hit.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 26.3N 157.4E POOR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 080300UTC 29.4N 153.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 156.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM
EAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE, WITH CONVECTION FLARING ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
QUADRANTS. A 061851Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHT LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS, BASED
ON THE 061851Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 2.5/2.5 (RJTD),
2.0/2.0 (PGTW) AND 1.5/1.5 (KNES). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 062151ZSEP2007 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 062200) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 070600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND
080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (FITOW) FOR FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PGTW).//

[P.K.]

RSMC Tokyo sat fix CI remains at T2.5 at 1200 as it was six hours ago. 0710 isn't too far off forming.

[Coredesat]

Now 0710 (Danas):

WTJP22 RJTD 071200
WARNING 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0710 DANAS (0710) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA
AT 27.3N 156.4E NORTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 29.9N 152.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 34.3N 151.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 40.0N 156.5E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=