Invest 92L Near Leewards- Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

They keep poping up.

[rockyman]

initializing at 17.5/57 at 1014 mb

[chadtm80]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH...AND
IT COULD BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[windstorm99]

Oh my.......This is going to be a crazy week.

[Vortex]

Excellent initialization based on current imagery...

[windstorm99]

[RL3AO]

Theres too many Captain! We can't get them all.

[cycloneye]

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1553 UTC SUN SEP 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922007) 20070909 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070909 1200 070910 0000 070910 1200 070911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 57.0W 18.3N 60.0W 19.2N 63.2W 20.3N 66.3W
BAMD 17.5N 57.0W 18.3N 59.3W 19.4N 61.7W 20.4N 64.2W
BAMM 17.5N 57.0W 18.3N 59.7W 19.1N 62.5W 20.1N 65.4W
LBAR 17.5N 57.0W 18.1N 59.1W 19.1N 61.6W 20.0N 64.1W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070911 1200 070912 1200 070913 1200 070914 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.5N 69.6W 24.1N 74.7W 26.9N 78.1W 29.6N 80.2W
BAMD 21.5N 66.5W 23.5N 70.6W 25.0N 73.9W 25.6N 77.1W
BAMM 21.0N 68.3W 23.2N 73.5W 25.5N 77.5W 27.6N 80.2W
LBAR 20.9N 66.4W 24.0N 70.0W 26.4N 71.8W 27.2N 73.2W
SHIP 46KTS 60KTS 72KTS 80KTS
DSHP 46KTS 60KTS 72KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 57.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 55.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 53.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

[Vortex]

Leewards and PR may get some very active weather from this system late tonight thru monday night..1545 utc continues to improve and it appears that the mlc/llc is tightening up...

[windstorm99]

Infrared view...

[Hyperstorm]

Florida needs to watch this system. I don't trust any system that moves close to the Bahamas in that general direction.

84* and rising...

[windstorm99]

.

[x-y-no]

Prior discussion of this wave (before invest status) was here.

No significant model support for this thing yet, but it has that look ...

[msbee]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Frances 2004 Track????

[windstorm99]

South florida....Needs to watch.

[canetracker]

GFS has 92L giving PR a nice soaking

[HURAKAN]

92L:

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

SE florida could be the highest
risk notice that the Deepest steering
layers steer this further south not
allowing a recurve...BAMD is deepest steering
and tracks this further south.

[x-y-no]

initializing at 17.5/57 at 1014 mb

Good initialization. There's what I believe to be an MLC there and if convection persists it should work its way down to the surface.

Good sharp wave signature.