Tropical Storm NARI (0711) in WPAC

[Chacor]

Nice MODIS from earlier:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

A tight and well defined Eye wall...On 85h.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Small and very intense.

[Chacor]

Sometimes, if only recon still did WPac. They would probably find good cat 3 1-minute winds.

[CherlynV]

Naha just hit 50kts.

[dwsqos2]

Naha Obs...

METAR ROAH 141130Z 10028G57KT 070V140 3000 SHRA FEW010 BKN015 SCT020CB 28/25 Q0993

[CherlynV]

ROAH 141130Z 10028G57KT

[CherlynV]

Naha Obs...

METAR ROAH 141130Z 10028G57KT 070V140 3000 SHRA FEW010 BKN015 SCT020CB 28/25 Q0993

Oops - we appear to have simultaneously posted the 57kts out of Naha.

[CherlynV]

Most recent storm-centered enhanced IR.

[Chacor]

Amazing. Currently waiting for the JMA to update their pages with 21 JST (12Z) data...

Hourly Weather Obs, Naha
Hourly Weather Obs, Naha Airport

[Chacor]

METAR ROAH 141200Z 11033G50KT 1000 R36/0800VP1800U +SHRA FEW010 BKN015 BKN020CB 27/25 Q0993

[P.K.]

RSMC Tokyo CI of T6.0 at 1200 which looks to be an increase from T5.5 looking back at one of Chacor's posts from the morning.

[Chacor]

RSMC Tokyo CI of T6.0 at 1200 which looks to be an increase from T5.5 looking back at one of Chacor's posts from the morning.

Then they've gone to 90 kt rather earlier (6 hours?) than expected. o_O

[Chacor]

To put this into context... 33 hours ago (13/03z) this was a 1000 hPa TD. It's currently likely a 90kt 950 hPa typhoon... deepening rate of about 1.52 hPa per hour.

[Chacor]

772
WTPQ20 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0711 NARI (0711)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 25.7N 127.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 29.1N 126.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 161200UTC 32.7N 126.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 171200UTC 36.0N 127.7E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

945 hPa, which means a deepening rate of 1 and two-thirds hPa per hour.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Chacor]

That's a lot of rainfall for Naha.

[CrazyC83]

Could we see Super Typhoon Nari at this rate?

Come to think of it, this is what Humberto could have been if he had more time over water...

[Chacor]

Wow, 115 knots from JTWC. This thing went from a TD to a cat4 in 36 hours. Not too far off STY now. It's forecast to peak at 125 kt but won't be surprised if it does manage 130 kt.

EDIT: Just took a look at the operational warnings... last three JTWC warnings, over 12 hours: 65 kt-95 kt-115 kt.

A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (NARI) HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND TOWARD A TROPICAL UPPER TROPO-
SPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE 14NM EYE IS CLEARLY
VISIBLE IN BOTH WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
B. TY 12W HAS TAKEN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A ZONALLY-ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YELLOW SEA EASTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION ESTIMATE IS
BASED ON 141200Z SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 141200Z
RADAR FIX FROM OKINAWA. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
T-NUMBERS OF 6.0/6.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD, RADAR VELOCITY ESTIMATES
FROM OKINAWA, AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

[CrazyC83]

How did this strengthen so fast? TD to Cat 4 in 36 hours is just amazing...