Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Wx_Warrior]

Entergy did a GREAT job with Rita because they were prepared. I am very concerned with Entergy now. They expected this to be a rain event and were caught sleeping. It will be days, maybe a week before power is restored. They admitted they were not ready for Humberto. Damn shame!

[duris]

Within the past hour, my brother-in-law spotted and my mother-in-law heard a small tornado just off the MS River in St. Rose (just outside New Orleans). Perhaps the threat of increased tornadic activity mentioned.

As for not bringing up Katrina, why not? Why would something two years ago not necessarily be relevant, meteorologically or otherwise? And I don't say this as a boohoo, I survived Katrina person.

[Steve]

How'd you make out down in homa Sky? Only a few rumbles of thunder and maybe 3 or 4 passing bands/showers in the CBD. We're probably up around an inch or 3/4 of an inch.

Looks like the main remnant Gulf band is coming through in the next hour or so.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[skysummit]

How'd you make out down in homa Sky? Only a few rumbles of thunder and maybe 3 or 4 passing bands/showers in the CBD. We're probably up around an inch or 3/4 of an inch.

Looks like the main remnant Gulf band is coming through in the next hour or so.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Houma didn't get much rain at all. Earlier this morning I drove over to Patterson and passed through a squall with TS winds, but that was about it.

[skysummit]

The fruit loop models are still insisting on a loopty loop....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Katrina didnt have anything close to 95 mph in South Florida

The ONLY hurricane force winds recorded were on top of my office... and those were right at the threshold of hurricane. S Fla experienced a moderate to strong TS from Katrina, as most in Texas likely did

OF COURSE COASTAL AREAS OF HIGH ISLAND AND PORT ARTHUR RECEIVED A CAT 1 HURRICANE. I put this in bold as I know there will be a few who will accuse me of trying to downplay this storm

Here in Houston, the morning Katrina hit New Orleans, we had one good rain shower near the Galleria when an outer band came through. Not TS winds.



During Rita, a team from the Florida Coastal Monitoring program at Port Arthur measured peak one minute sustained of 82 knots, and a gust of 112 knots with a portable 10 meter tower.

[Puddinhead]

One of the local stations was reporting that FEMA trailers had flipped over. They were talking about rescuing a woman from one of them... fortunately, no serious injuries. Can you imagine? Still in a FEMA trailer from Rita (12 days shy of 2 years ago) and Humberto storms in and flips your home around.

Ummmmmm......I'm still in a FEMA trailer from Katrina....

Sorry to hear it. Not sure what that has to do with people over here getting flipped around by Humberto while still in them from Rita though.






Edit: Glad to see you're ok too, Diva!

Guess that came off like I was making light of their plight....which wasn't what I meant at all. I was just pointing out that due to the storms of 2005 there were a helluva lot of people still in trailers. Heck, we had a small tornado come through last Spring that flipped the FEMA trailer that had been serving as the housing for the ruined firehouse a few blocks from my house. They were so trashed that they had to squeeze a couple of the firemen out of gashes in the walls of the trailer because the end where the door was was flattened. So I know how terrified the folks in Humberto's path who were in trailers had to be. Of course, you kind of wonder what they were doing still in the trailers with a tropical system bearing down on them...we've been constantly told that we'd be well served to get out of the trailers and into a real structure somewhere if even a line of strong thunderstorms was headed our way.

That being said....there really hasn't been a time where we thought the weather was bad enough to get out, and if we do, my house is at a point where we'd be able to go inside and sit in it without electricity for a few hours if it were. So I guess I'm lucky.

[GonzoReiter]

I'm in Westlake, LA ... Senor Humberto had little impact here, a fairly strong rain storm early morning after I left the S2K Esper Chat. Total of 3" rain fall recorded according to the local media. I did see some pecan tree limbs down whilst driving around the area today.

I'm happy to see that fellow chatters from last night who were more in Humberto's path reporting generally favorable results from the Hurricane's passing this morning.

regards

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi theorizes that in weakening cyclones, with limited convection, the standard reductions should be alterered to lower surface winds, because the strong winds aloft are not getting mixed down effectively, and in strengthening cyclones, the wind reduction from aircraft should be altered for closer to AC level winds, as the active thunderstorms involved will mix down the stronger winds aloft, at least in gusts.


He has said before a strong Cat 1 that is getting stronger will often do more damage than a Cat 2 that is weakening.

[Steve]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Earlier question about decoupling came up. Maybe.

Steve

[southerngale]

And what are the odds of that happening?

[RL3AO]

It would be somewhat humorous if it made it back into the GOM and became Ingrid before TD8. IMO.

[Derek Ortt]

it would retain the name Humberto

[Wx_Warrior]

Older gentleman in Bridge City (between Port Arthur & Orange) was killed during Humberto as he sat underneath his carport during the worst conditions. The carport fell killing him instantly.

[kurtpage]

Father-In-Law is headed to Batton Rouge now for cleanup....

[Steve]

>>Are meteorologists going to be fired over this? Articles are saying how terrible the Hurricane center did at forecasting this one.

They didn't do a terrible job. No one really saw the intensity coming. They were pretty good with the track, and were great with the updates/upgrades as news came in.

FWIW, many of the 12z models support a decoupling. None of those do anything with the low level moisture at this time, the just move it back to the west. GFS 500mb is an interesting run at 12z as the high pushes down a piece of a front later in the run and crosses Florida. Might be an Upper Low since it was at 500 or might be sniffing out some tropical moisture off the MS Coast.

Steve

[jasons2k]

Entergy did a GREAT job with Rita because they were prepared. I am very concerned with Entergy now. They expected this to be a rain event and were caught sleeping. It will be days, maybe a week before power is restored. They admitted they were not ready for Humberto. Damn shame!

I think you're being unfair here. How were they supposed to know Humberto would make LF as almost a Cat 2 (and maybe so in the post-analysis)??? I think the whole Golden Triangle was, quite literally, caught sleeping with this one.

[Wx_Warrior]

Jsch...I disagree but thats not for us to argue over now...Believe me, they knew.

Anyway, here is a link of good photos from Humberto...

http://www.freedomgalleries.com/kfdm/main.php?g2_itemId=14

[skysummit]

>>Are meteorologists going to be fired over this? Articles are saying how terrible the Hurricane center did at forecasting this one.

They didn't do a terrible job. No one really saw the intensity coming. They were pretty good with the track, and were great with the updates/upgrades as news came in.

Sure we did....on the other board, we were discussing yesterday evening how a Hurricane Watch needed to be put up for portions of the Texas and La coasts. Recon obs showed stronger winds, however the NHC kept their advisory at 50mph. All the signs were there for further intensification. It had a darn near perfect environment. The only thing that was against it was its proximity to the coastline, and if that didn't hamper it getting from an Invest to Tropical Storm, it surely wouldn't hamper it getting to a Hurricane. Heck...another hour over water and it would've been officially a Cat 2 IMO. It'll probably be upgraded after the season.

[Brent]

Ivan anyone? It went ALL THE WAY across the SE, then out into the Atlantic, came south, and then SW crossing South FL and then redeveloped in the Gulf. It retained the name after 5 days of that!