Tropical Depression INGRID: ADVISORIES - Last Advisory

[cycloneye]

WTNT43 KNHC 142024
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER INGRID
HAS MATERIALIZED AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME BASICALLY
SHAPELESS WITH NO OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. GIVEN THE CURRENT DETERIORATION
OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DECREASE IN DVORAK T-NUMBERS. MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A PLAGUE OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER
INGRID THROUGH 5 DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SHRED THE CLOUD PATTERN...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. I AM SURPRISED THAT SOME MODELS
MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE OR EVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING...DESPITE THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...ONLY THE GFS AND THE GFDL BASICALLY
WEAKEN INGRID.

INGRID IS MOVING ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR 305 DEGREES AT 6
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL SLOW TRACK...
WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS WHICH PREVAIL TO THE
SOUTH OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER OPEN WATERS WELL NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 15.6N 50.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 16.0N 51.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 17.0N 52.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 18.0N 54.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 19.0N 55.3W 30 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 20.5N 57.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 22.0N 58.9W 30 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 24.0N 61.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.6W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.6W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 50.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N 51.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 52.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.0N 54.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 55.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.0N 58.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 24.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 50.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2007

...INGRID FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA AND WEAKEN...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST OR ABOUT 710
MILES...1145 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.6 N...50.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 51.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 35SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 51.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 51.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.4N 52.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 35SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.4N 53.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.4N 55.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 56.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.8N 58.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 24.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 51.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

083
WTNT33 KNHC 150228
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2007

...INGRID STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST OR ABOUT 655
MILES...1050 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. INGRID IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...15.9 N...51.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

084
WTNT43 KNHC 150228
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH INGRID TONIGHT AND
FOUND A RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH THE 700 MB CENTER
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CENTERS AS INDICATED BY
MICROWAVE PASSES FROM THIS EVENING. AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...THE
PLANE REPORTED SFMR WINDS OF 38 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT HAS NOT
SEEN WINDS ABOVE 34 KT SINCE THAT TIME. GIVEN THE AMORPHOUS
PATTERN ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KT.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF A GUN THIS
EVENING. RATHER STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES ARE IN THE
STORM'S PATH FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS OR SO. SOME WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT INGRID WILL DIMINISH TO
DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME. IN A FEW DAYS...SOME OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT TO GET SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE
AS THE SYSTEM TRIES TO SQUEEZE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS IN THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THE SYSTEM COULD TRY TO RE-INTENSIFY AT THE
LONGER-RANGES...BUT THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF IT BY THEN. THE
NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/8...A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE
BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
STEERING VARIES ACCORDING TO THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF INGRID. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS PROBABLE IN THE LONG-RANGE AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST IN THE NEAR-TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...THEN IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS MOST MODELS ARE NOW CALLING FOR RECURVATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE 61W.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 15.9N 51.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 16.4N 52.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 17.4N 53.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 18.4N 55.2W 30 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 19.3N 56.4W 30 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.8N 58.2W 30 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 22.5N 59.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 24.5N 60.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 52.7W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 35SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 52.7W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 52.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.2N 54.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.3N 55.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.1N 56.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.9N 58.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 25.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 52.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2007

...INGRID BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST OR ABOUT 575
MILES...930 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. INGRID REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...16.5 N...52.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI



914
WTNT43 KNHC 150836
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

IT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF INGRID
EARLY THIS MORNING. BELLIGERENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS TAKING A
TOLL ON INGRID AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 35 KT AND SO WILL THE
INITIAL INTENSITY. ANOTHER NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
BACK INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE AROUND 12Z...AND A MORE ACCURATE
MEASUREMENT WILL BE TAKEN.

INGRID IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THESE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY STRENGTHENING AND COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE DISSIPATION OF
THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...AFTER 3 DAYS OR SO THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX AND IF INGRID SURVIVES THAT LONG SOME OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
MAINTAINS INGRID AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9. A GENERAL MOTION TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. THEREAFTER...A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED AS INGRID...OR THE
REMNANT LOW OF INGRID...RESPONDS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...BUT HAS SHIFTED A
BIT MORE TO THE EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS JUST EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 16.5N 52.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 17.2N 54.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 18.3N 55.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 19.1N 56.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 19.9N 58.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 21.5N 59.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 23.5N 60.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 61.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[cycloneye]

WTNT23 KNHC 151430
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 53.7W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 53.7W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 53.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 53.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTNT33 KNHC 151431
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2007

...HOSTILE WINDS ALOFT TAKING A TOLL ON INGRID...REDUCED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH A FEW SQUALLS...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST OR ABOUT
510 MILES...820 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...16.4 N...53.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTNT43 KNHC 151432
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

AN UPPER-LEVEL MID-OCEANIC TROUGH...MUCH STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER...HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE ATLANTIC RESULTING IN
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER INGRID. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS DETERIORATED AND INGRID IS BECOMING A JUST LARGE SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS AS INDICATED BY A NOAA
AIRCRAFT AND BY THE LATEST QUIKSCAT...AND BASED ON DATA FROM THESE
OBSERVING TOOLS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30
KNOTS. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
EVEN FURTHER...SO IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT INGRID WILL MOST LIKELY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE MAIN
REASON INGRID IS KEPT AS A 25-KNOT DEPRESSION THROUGH FIVE
DAYS...WITHOUT FORECASTING DISSIPATION...IS BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS
MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION WHICH TRAVERSES THE BAND OF STRONG
WESTERLIES. SOME MODELS...INCLUDING ALL VERSIONS OF SHIPS...SUGGEST
A SLIGHT REJUVENATION OF INGRID BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE OPEN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OR SWIRL HAS BEEN MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE
CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED...IT IS BECOMING STEERED BY THE FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND A
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN LATER
TODAY...AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF INGRID SHOULD BE PASSING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A DAY OR TWO. IN
FACT...THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 16.4N 53.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 17.0N 55.0W 25 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 56.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 58.0W 25 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 20.5N 59.5W 25 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 22.5N 61.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 25.0N 63.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 26.0N 64.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 55.0W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 55.0W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 54.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.7N 56.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.8N 58.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 23.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 55.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM AST SAT SEP 15 2007

...INGRID FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST OR ABOUT 425
MILES...685 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...16.5 N...55.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




236
WTNT43 KNHC 152031
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A TIGHT CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED
AND LARGER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED
TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE BEEN TRYING
TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE...BUT BECOME IMMEDIATELY SHEARED AWAY BY THE
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF EVEN
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HEADING FOR INGRID. THIS COULD FURTHER
LESSEN THE DEEP CONVECTION...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
INGRID IS KEPT AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION THROUGH DAY 5...SINCE THE
DEPRESSION MIGHT SURVIVE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALL
VERSIONS OF THE SHIPS MODELS SUGGEST A SLIGHT REJUVENATION OF
INGRID BEYOND 3 DAYS IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SOLUTION
APPEARS UNLIKELY SINCE BOTH THE SOPHISTICATED GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.

BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS SHEARED AND MORE SHALLOW...DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS IT HAS BEEN STEERED WESTWARD...OR 280 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS...BY THE LOWER-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. DUE TO
THE INITIAL WESTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3
DAYS...BUT STILL KEEPS THE CYCLONE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS HAS INCREASED BEYOND 3
DAYS. SOME SHOW A CONTINUATION OF A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...WHILE
OTHERS SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 16.5N 55.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 16.7N 56.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 17.8N 58.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 59.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 60.5W 25 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 22.0N 62.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 23.5N 63.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 25.0N 64.0W 25 KT

$$

[cycloneye]

642
WTNT33 KNHC 160229
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 15 2007

...LITTLE CHANGE WITH INGRID...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.7 WEST OR ABOUT
405 MILES...650 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.9 N...55.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


882
WTNT23 KNHC 160229
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
0300 UTC SUN SEP 16 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 55.7W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 55.7W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 55.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.4N 57.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 58.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 59.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.8N 60.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 23.0N 63.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 55.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

640
WTNT43 KNHC 160229
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

THE CENTER OF INGRID IS MOSTLY EXPOSED ON NIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION IN THE CIRCULATION. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
OVERALL...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT INGRID AND
CAUSE A DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN. QUIKSCAT SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS
IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR MAY LESSEN...BUT THERE
PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. IN FACT...THE GFDL DISSIPATES
THE SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS AND THE GFS DOES THE SAME BY 96 HOURS.
FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF A WEAK
SYSTEM PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING...BUT THE
FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC ON THE SURVIVAL CHANCES OF
INGRID.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...
ESTIMATED AT 285/9. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
LOW- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF INGRID IS SLOWLY
ERODED AWAY BY A TROUGH. IN GENERAL...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD THIS EVENING...PERHAPS DUE TO THE MODELS RECOGNIZING THE
SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
TO THE WEST FOR THIS ADVISORY BUT IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 16.9N 55.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 17.4N 57.1W 25 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 18.2N 58.6W 25 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 59.9W 25 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 19.8N 60.8W 25 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 21.5N 62.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 23.0N 63.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Coredesat]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 160834
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 56.8W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 56.8W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 56.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 58.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.2N 59.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.1N 60.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.0N 61.3W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.5N 62.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 23.5N 64.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 56.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Coredesat]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 160835
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM AST SUN SEP 16 2007

...INGRID REMAINS DISORGANIZED...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES...530 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...BUT A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...17.0 N...56.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Evil Jeremy]

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 16 2007

...INGRID MAINTAINING 35 MPH WINDS...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR ABOUT
260 MILES...415 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...BUT A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...17.2 N...57.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

NNNN

[Chacor]

690
WTNT43 KNHC 161434
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

INGRID IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY DESPITE THE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. IN FACT...THE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS LESS DISORGANIZED
THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE CENTER NO LONGER EXPOSED FROM
THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30
KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST GFS RUN...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF
SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT INGRID WILL
EVENTUALLY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS HOSTILE LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT
INDICATED DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
MERELY MAINTAINS INGRID AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH. HOWEVER THE NEXT
NHC ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY NEED TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING.

BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...280/10. HOWEVER...THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF INGRID IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THIS
SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS
INDICATED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS. IN 4-5
DAYS A TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED
TO TURN INGRID NORTHWARD. HOWEVER THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT
VERY WELL DEFINED SO A SLOW MOTION OF ONLY 4-5 KT IS INDICATED BY
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

SINCE INGRID HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT MORE WESTWARD THAN EXPECTED...AND
THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE...INTERESTS
IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 17.2N 57.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 17.7N 59.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 18.4N 60.3W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 19.2N 61.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 20.0N 62.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 23.0N 64.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 24.5N 64.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
2100 UTC SUN SEP 16 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 58.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 58.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 58.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.8N 59.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.3N 61.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.2N 62.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 21.2N 63.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 24.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 58.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2007

...DISORGANIZED INGRID MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES...340 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD PASS JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER A
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THOSE ISLANDS ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.4 N...58.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

AFTER BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF INGRID HAS AGAIN DETERIORATED. THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE RAGGED...DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED...AND
THE LOW CLOUD LINES DEPICTING THE CIRCULATION HAVE BECOME
INDISTINCT. MOREOVER...A NUMBER OF ARC CLOUDS...IMPLYING LOW-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...ARE SEEN EMANATING FROM THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TAFB
DVORAK ESTIMATE. WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER
STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH MAKES SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. INDEED IF THE CURRENT
DISORGANIZING TREND CONTINUES...INGRID WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW TO EVOLVE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE...IF INGRID
SURVIVES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT COULD BEGIN TO
RESTRENGTHEN IN 3-4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATEST LGEM AND
HWRF GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME FRAME. ALTERNATIVELY THE GFDL NOW
DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND AND THERE IS A LOT OF
SPREAD IN LOCATION ESTIMATES THIS AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/9. THE STEERING
CURRENTS FOR INGRID ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
RIGHT. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IN 3-4 DAYS MIGHT BE JUST A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE A DIRECT
INFLUENCE ON INGRID'S MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SLOWS
THE FORWARD SPEED TO LESS THAN 5 KT LATER IN THE PERIOD...AND IS
NOT FAR FROM THE CONU DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE
TO THE LEFT OF OUR FORECAST TRACK. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
IS SCHEDULED TO FLY A RESEARCH MISSION INTO THE CYCLONE AROUND 0000
UTC AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE A POSITION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 17.4N 58.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 17.8N 59.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 18.5N 61.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 19.3N 61.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 20.2N 62.7W 30 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 21.2N 63.7W 30 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 22.5N 65.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 24.0N 66.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
0300 UTC MON SEP 17 2007

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 59.4W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 59.4W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 59.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.6N 60.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.0N 61.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.7N 62.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.3N 63.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 21.5N 66.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 59.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

961
WTNT33 KNHC 170254
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2007

...INGRID WEAKENS JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES...255 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF INGRID WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...IS 1010 MB...29.83
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...17.4 N...59.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

052
WTNT43 KNHC 170300
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

DEEP CONVECTION ESSENTIALLY DISAPPEARED AFTER ABOUT 21Z. ANALYSIS OF
THE AMBIGUITIES FROM A 2145Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED WINDS NO
STRONGER THAN 25 KT...AND EVEN THOSE WINDS WERE IN AN ISOLATED AREA
OF SHOWERS ABOUT 80-90 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE SINCE THEN...SO THE NEW ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS SET TO 25 KT...DESPITE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DVORAK ESTIMATES. ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK...GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW CONTINUED STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR INGRID TO STRENGTHEN ON DAYS 3 AND 4 WHEN
THE SHEAR DECREASES A LITTLE...BUT THAT IS ASSUMING THE SYSTEM
STILL EXISTS AT THAT TIME. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
KEEPS THE CYCLONE AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY
PERIOD...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT IT MIGHT NOT BE A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NEARLY THAT LONG.

THE QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/8. INGRID
CONTINUES TO MOVE LEFT OF MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE...IT IS
SUCH A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS MOVING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.
FOR THE SAME REASON...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE LEFT OF
MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALONG A
TRACK THAT IS CLOSEST TO THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM. A GRADUAL BEND
TO THE RIGHT IS STILL FORECAST SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
INGRID IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...INGRID OR WHATEVER
IS LEFT OF IT WILL BE IN A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING REGIME...FAR
TO THE SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 17.4N 59.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 17.6N 60.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 18.0N 61.7W 25 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 18.7N 62.8W 25 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 19.3N 63.6W 25 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 20.5N 65.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 21.5N 66.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 67.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Coredesat]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 170828
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
0900 UTC MON SEP 17 2007


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 60.0W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 60.0W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 59.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.8N 61.1W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.3N 62.3W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 60.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT33 KNHC 170828
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM AST MON SEP 17 2007

...INGRID DISSIPATING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
INGRID IS DISSIPATING.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0
WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THE
REMNANTS OF INGRID ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...17.5 N...60.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Coredesat]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 170829
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

INGRID CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...AND NO LONGER
QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY. STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A LESS HOSTILE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

THE CIRCULATION HAS LITTLE SIGNATURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES AND ITS
CENTER SEEMS TO NO LONGER BE WELL DEFINED. MY INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 280/10 IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. FORECAST POINTS FOR A
BROAD REMNANT LOW ARE PROVIDED OUT TO 24 HOURS BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 17.5N 60.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 17/1800Z 17.8N 61.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 18/0600Z 18.3N 62.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN